Will Hillary exceed 300 EVs?
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  Will Hillary exceed 300 EVs?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Will Hillary exceed 300 EVs?  (Read 1506 times)
Ronnie
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« on: September 14, 2016, 08:55:16 PM »
« edited: September 14, 2016, 09:03:15 PM by Ronnie »
Most people here still think Hillary is the favorite to win this thing, but her margin of victory is less certain.  Do you all see Trump improving on Romney's performance enough to bring her total EV count to 300 or less?
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 09:15:00 PM »
Barely. If the election were held today, she'd lose, but by November she'll gain enough to win Obama 2012-OH, IA, maybe NV.
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 09:18:17 PM »
Yes, that's still my prediction.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2016, 09:42:20 PM »
As of now, yes. But if she loses both Ohio and Florida, no, and Republicans probably keep the Senate.
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Hammy
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2016, 09:53:56 PM »
Absolutely not. Whoever wins gets ~280--the landslide chances are long past.
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Erc
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2016, 10:02:20 PM »
Yes, obviously.  Stop with the overreactions, folks.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2016, 10:03:59 PM »
If the election were held today, no, she'd probably just get 278. In November, though, I'm guessing she'll get over 300.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2016, 10:11:57 PM »
No, and the economy would have had to make a strong 3℅ growth. The blue wall is VA, Pa, CO and NH
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2016, 10:40:57 PM »
Yes.

Quote from: Erc on September 14, 2016, 10:02:20 PM
Yes, obviously.  Stop with the overreactions, folks.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2016, 10:56:37 PM »
Depends on if she wins or not.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2016, 11:10:43 PM »
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2016, 11:18:44 PM »
Honestly I think she's about as likely to be over 350 as she is to be under 300 (as in not very). The likeliest scenario is somewhere between those two numbers.
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2016, 11:44:04 PM »
I go with what Larry Sabato said, that Hillary is more likely to win with over 400 electoral votes than get less than 300.  A few polls doesn't change how this election has been going.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 12:32:28 AM »
Quote from: JoeyJoeJoe on September 14, 2016, 11:44:04 PM
I go with what Larry Sabato said, that Hillary is more likely to win with over 400 electoral votes than get less than 300.  A few polls doesn't change how this election has been going.

Uh, I don't think he believes that. In fact, he just locked in SC/UT/KS/IN for Trump.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 12:38:34 AM »
Obama 2012 + NC

So, yes.
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Lachi
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 12:46:36 AM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on September 15, 2016, 12:32:28 AM
Quote from: JoeyJoeJoe on September 14, 2016, 11:44:04 PM
I go with what Larry Sabato said, that Hillary is more likely to win with over 400 electoral votes than get less than 300.  A few polls doesn't change how this election has been going.

Uh, I don't think he believes that. In fact, he just locked in SC/UT/KS/IN for Trump.

Doesn't change the fact that Hillary is still way above 300...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 12:47:32 AM »
I have faith in this country and its people, so I will say yes.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 01:00:03 AM »
depends on the debates
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 01:05:04 AM »
NC has Clinton +.8, Nevada at Clinton +.8, Virginia at Clinton +3.7 Pennsylvania at Clinton +6, New Hampshire at Clinton +5.

I don't really understand why Clinton supporters are worried about her winning. The key states are Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

Only NC and Nevada are true tossups. To break the firewall, Trump needs either PA or VA. Plus he has to win 2 .4 states.

That alone drops his chances of getting to one state down to about 16 percent, before either PA or VA. Given that VA is out of the MOE, that's only about a 3 percent chance of Trump winning VA.

That will put Hillary on about 99.5 percent chance of winning.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2016, 01:15:57 AM »
As of today, this election has a better chance of a 269-269 tie or 270-268 nail-biter than any election we've seen in our lifetimes.

Things could change by November, but I'm making sure I'm well stocked on popcorn and caffeinated beverages for election night.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2016, 01:30:31 AM »
Quote from: SirMuxALot on September 15, 2016, 01:15:57 AM
As of today, this election has a better chance of a 269-269 tie or 270-268 nail-biter than any election we've seen in our lifetimes.

Things could change by November, but I'm making sure I'm well stocked on popcorn and caffeinated beverages for election night.

Well thank God the election still has weeks to run Tongue
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ursulahx
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« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2016, 03:01:46 AM »
Quote from: Rep. LLR on September 14, 2016, 09:15:00 PM
Barely. If the election were held today, she'd lose, but by November she'll gain enough to win Obama 2012-OH, IA, maybe NV.

Sorry, but I don't think she'd lose if the election were held today - she still has a lead in PA and VA, which is really all she needs.

What everyone is frantic about is - what if Trump's rise in the polls continues and he starts to overtake her? Then we can talk about her losing; but right now that's ridiculous.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2016, 03:24:41 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 03:46:43 AM by Ronnie »

I'm leaning in this direction as well (with Clinton winning NE-02 on top of NC), but I am beginning to wonder if this cycle might finally be the one in which Ohio loses its bellwether status.  Trump winning OH but losing NC would be especially interesting, and I think it's very possible.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: September 15, 2016, 03:42:34 AM »
Yes, it will be 348 vs. 190 electoral votes. 2012 map plus North Carolina and Nebraska's second district.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: September 15, 2016, 03:55:53 AM »
Sabato made a mistake putting that 348 election Map up.  She had the email scandal and other issues.

It won't be a 300 margin victory
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