If Jill Stein dropped out, would Clinton be a sure winner?
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  If Jill Stein dropped out, would Clinton be a sure winner?
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Author Topic: If Jill Stein dropped out, would Clinton be a sure winner?  (Read 467 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« on: September 14, 2016, 03:52:21 PM »

Self-explanatory. Given that Stein is pulling so much more from Clinton than Trump, would her dropping out give Clinton a sure shot? Or would her supporters defect or not vote?
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 03:54:40 PM »

Uh, no. Stein is getting about 3% of the vote. Half of that would stay home, others might throw up their hands and defect to Johnson or even Trump. Hillary would gain about 1%. Basically worthless unless it was concentrated in a decisive state.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 04:00:07 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 06:53:06 PM by Eraserhead »

Nope. She's only going to get 1-2% of the vote at the end of the day and realistically most of it will probably come from people who would have voted for some other left-wing third party, wrote someone in or not voted at all if she wasn't on the ballot.
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AGA
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2016, 04:59:50 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 05:31:09 PM by Chrome »

No. Jill Stein has so few supporters, and many of them probably would not vote for Clinton anyway. It could make the difference in some close states, but it is not enough to guarantee a Clinton win.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2016, 05:00:54 PM »

I love how liberals wanted Gary Johnson to run in order to hinder Trump but Johnson is hurting Clinton more than Trump slightly.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2016, 05:01:51 PM »

It's not Stein that is taking support from Jill but Johnson.
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SWE
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2016, 05:36:51 PM »

It would have no impact whatsoever
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2016, 05:44:02 PM »

No, not at all.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2016, 06:01:06 PM »

If I couldn't cast a vote to protest how awful the major party nominees are, I wouldn't be voting. If it were not Stein, it'd be Johnson, or McMullin, or whatever left-wing random was on the ballot. If it wasn't any of them, it'd be a write-in or none-of-the-above.

All of that's irrelevant, though, because Stein's vote share in almost all polls isn't enough to cover the Trump-Clinton margin unless you assume that >80% of Stein voters would otherwise support Clinton, which is extremely implausible.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2016, 06:07:03 PM »

Voted yes, but she won't be a sure winner. It will though increase her chances considerably. +1% is important.
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angus
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2016, 06:09:03 PM »

No.
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