Trump's path to 270

[Devils30]

Despite the media talking about Ohio, it's pretty clear he is going to have to pull off one of the following maps in order to win.

279-259 Trump

OR

269-269 each. Even if ME-2 is red, the GOP house will break the tie if it's 269 all so it's largely irrelevant.

I don't really see any other path in a close election. MI is the bluest of MI, PA, WI trio and autoworkers are probably the least likely blue collar whites to defect. VA, CO clearly lean D at this point in time based on education levels, NH is not far behind. The NV/NH combo looks like a longshot for the GOP, NV polls could be off again and other than one poll, NH isn't close.

I just don't see a path for Trump without one of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree, and I think Path 2 is more likely.

[Torie]

I agree at the moment (well MI rather than PA), as I just posted elsewhere, the Trump collapse in Oakland County Michigan, and the WOW counties in Wisconsin, representing his weakness with better educated white suburban voters, is just too great for Trump to carry either state, even if Trump, as he seems to be doing, is grabbing a considerable number of normally Democratic white working class voters in the hinterlands of those two states (which do make up a substantial percentage of the population in each states).  He needs to entice back a considerable number of those voters that normally vote Pub that don't like him. So far, there is no evidence of that happening. Ditto for the Philly burbs.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I agree at the moment (well MI rather than PA), as I just posted elsewhere, the Trump collapse in Oakland County Michigan, and the WOW counties in Wisconsin, representing his weakness with better educated white suburban voters, is just too great for Trump to carry either state, even if Trump, as he seems to be doing, is grabbing a considerable number of normally Democratic white working class voters in the hinterlands of those two states (which do make up a substantial percentage of the population in each states).  He needs to entice back a considerable number of those voters that normally vote Pub that don't like him. So far, there is no evidence of that happening. Ditto for the Philly burbs.

The Marquette poll?

[ursulahx]

If PA flips to Trump, what are the chances WI would as well?

[elcorazon]

Don't forget he HAS to hold FL and NC for it to work, too. I think he WILL hold OH and take IA if he pulls off MI, WI or PA, but NC and FL have slightly different dynamics so the door could still be open for HIllary despite losing one of those states. FL is possibly the state she holds onto that kills the Trump bid.

[Torie]

I agree at the moment (well MI rather than PA), as I just posted elsewhere, the Trump collapse in Oakland County Michigan, and the WOW counties in Wisconsin, representing his weakness with better educated white suburban voters, is just too great for Trump to carry either state, even if Trump, as he seems to be doing, is grabbing a considerable number of normally Democratic white working class voters in the hinterlands of those two states (which do make up a substantial percentage of the population in each states).  He needs to entice back a considerable number of those voters that normally vote Pub that don't like him. So far, there is no evidence of that happening. Ditto for the Philly burbs.

The Marquette poll?

Yes, for Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

We still see a pattern much as in 2008 and 2012: if the election is not set, then the Republican nominee must win four states that are close, states that are different enough and scattered enough that no appeal can be made to fit them all unless fundamentally changing the nature of the election very late in the election.

Donald Trump has not won over any significant Democratic constituency, but he offends some traditionally-Republican ones.  

[Xing]

The first one is more plausible, but neither seem likely.

[Ljube]

What about Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico?

I'd like to see some New Mexico polls. Trump could be strong there.

[Torie]

What about Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico?

I'd like to see some New Mexico polls. Trump could be strong there.

NM?  Really?  What percent of the voters there are Hispanic again?

[°Leprechaun]

I doubt that he can win PA or WI or any of the other states that have gone "blue" since 1988

most likely

less likely

NH is more likely than any of the other leaning Clinton states and the most likely (but highly unlikely) 269-269 tie is:

[DrScholl]

Fraud. Namely ballot box stuffing.

[Devils30]

I think 2 is more likely also. Wisconsin has more non-college whites than Pennsylvania and by quite a lot too. Look here: http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608

Despite PA's blue collar reputation, Clinton will probably overwhelm Trump so badly in the Philly suburbs that Trump will be simply unable to close the gap. Even places like Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, State College will sprinkle in enough Democratic votes to keep Trump out.

Wisconsin is a problem for Trump in the Milwaukee suburbs compared to normal GOP showings but he has a chance to gain significant ground upstate.

As for Florida, it is going to be very interesting. Polls have Hillary doing better than Obama's 21% win with Latinos. Most have it around 25-32% for her. If Hispanics grow as a portion of the electorate, it can offset any Trump gains with whites. Obama lost FL whites by 22-23 in 2012 and some polls have it similar or less, others closer to 27%. In other words, Florida is going to be VERY close.

[Sir Mohamed]

Only the Romney states plus the big three (FL, OH, PA). And eventually IA in addition. But ain't gonna happen. The Trumpster is trailing in PA in high single-digits or low double-digits. WI and MI are also not in play despite some GOPers wishful thinking.