Problem for Trump is that even after he wins over NC IA OH and then perhaps FL, the next rung of states will be NV and NH which I will see as being very hard for him to flip unless there is another surge of support on top of the existing surge he is experiencing. This will leave him short.
TRUMP's paths (if he wins Romney(206) + IA(6) + OH(18) + FL(29) = 259
Then he needs 11 more
1. NV(6) + CO(9) = 15
2. PA(20) = 20
3. WI(10) + ME-2(1) = 11
4. MI(16) = 16
5. NV(6) + NM(5) =11
6. CO(9) + ME-2,ME(Statewide) =12
TRUMP has some chances in NM/CO as latest polls.
let me show you my cherry-picking polls
1) PA
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plusAug. 31-Sep. 6 Google Consumer Surveys 808 LV TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
2) NV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/#plusSep. 6-8 Marist College 627 LV TRUMP 42% | Hillary 41% | Johnson 8%
3) CO
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/#plusAug. 26-Sep. 8 Ipsos 417 LV TRUMP 43% | Hillary 41%
Aug. 9-Sep. 1 SurveyMonkey 2,428 RV Hillary 37% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 16%
4) ME-2
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine-2/#plusSep. 4-10 SurveyUSA 397 LV TRUMP 47% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 8%
Sep. 2-5 Emerson College 400 LV TRUMP 41% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 14%
5) WI
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#plusAug. 26-Sep. 8 Ipsos 523 LV TRUMP 40% | Hillary 38%
Aug. 9-Sep. 1 SurveyMonkey 2,687 RV Hillary 39% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 13%
6) MI
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/#plusAug. 26-Sep. 8 Ipsos 613 LV Hillary 43% | TRUMP 41% |
Aug. 26-Sep. 8 Ipsos 494 LV Hillary 42% | TRUMP 42% |
7) NM
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plusAug. 26-Sep. 8 Ipsos 106 LV TRUMP 48% | Hillary 38%
Aug. 31-Sep. 6 Google Consumer Surveys 215 LV TRUMP 30% | Hillary 27% | Johnson 18%
ME(Statewide)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine/#plusSep. 4-10 SurveyUSA 779 LV Hillary 42% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 9%