Warner/ Biden – The Dream Ticket ?

[Ben.]

I was reading the UK edition of the Economist the other day and the Lexington section was discussing the possibility that a Democratic ticket lead by Mark Warner with Jo Biden as his running mate could be the most competitive choice for the democrats in 2008, now I’m not totally sold on the idea that a Warner/Biden ticket is the “dream ticket” for the Democrats but I think it does have a lot to recommend it.

Warner is a popular southern governor, with a solid moderate to populist record of taking on vested interest on both the left and right while successfully overcoming a massive shortfall to balance the budget and at the same time pour vast new investment in Virginia’s educational system. The reason that Biden is then mentioned is that the Delaware Senator’s long record as a Hawkish and Intelligent authority on issues of national security, IMO he’s about the Democrat’s best spokesman on the subject, he helps not only address the Democrats weakness on national security in comparison to the GOP but also complements Warner’s experience and success in domestic policy as well as addressing the Virginian’s comparative weakness on foreign relations. 

What are people’s thoughts about a Warner/Biden ticket… personally where Warner to lead the ticket I’d have thought that someone like Evan Byah or Blanche Lincoln with a Hawkish record on foreign affairs but with a more consistently moderate record on domestic issues which would be harder for the GOP to misconstrue than the more mixed record built up by Jo Biden. Where a Warner/Biden ticket to run how would that effect the electoral map? And are they a solution to the Democrats problems as the Economist suggests? 

[AuH2O]

Explain how he beats Hillary in the primary.

[Democratic Hawk]

I was reading the UK edition of the Economist the other day and the Lexington section was discussing the possibility that a Democratic ticket lead by Mark Warner with Jo Biden as his running mate could be the most competitive choice for the democrats in 2008, now I’m not totally sold on the idea that a Warner/Biden ticket is the “dream ticket” for the Democrats but I think it does have a lot to recommend it.

I'm with you on Warner (but Bayh, despite being an incumbent senator, remains my favoured candidate). Not sure about Biden though - true, he has national security credentials but other than that I don't see him adding anything. 1988 is certain to come back and haunt him

AuH2O,

Despite early polls, Hilllary winning the Democratic nomination is far from being a done deal

Dave

[WalterMitty]

i doubt joe biden would be interested in being vice president.

[TheresNoMoney]

Biden may be a decent  VP ticket. I think Wesley Clark would be a better VP pick, though.

[Ben.]

   

AuH2O,

Despite early polls, Hilllary winning the Democratic nomination is far from being a done deal

Dave

Most polls simply reflect name recognition at this stage which is why Edwards, Kerry and Hillary dominate the polling at the moment just as Gore, Hillary and Lieberman dominated the same polling back in 2001.

Hillary has little in the way of a strong base within the national party, she is generally liked but I just don’t discern a strong base for her, what seems to be happening is that she is now aggressively seeking to define her previously bland and somewhat indistinct record as a senator into a clear record as a Foreign Policy Hawk and Social Moderate, this could be the begging of her attempt to construct a far more solid base within the national party… but as yet she still does not have a big enough and solid enough base within the party IMHO to successfully challenge for the nomination, what is more nationally she remains divisive though the furore over Klien’s smear job “biography” may actually help her (when Bill O’Rielly and Sean Hannity are defending her, you know someone’s over stepped the mark) her new moderate tone may also help to address the often polar reactions she has prompted in the past.

In short Hillary has no better shot than any of the other credible candidates, her name and profile will help but she is certainly no the run away front runner and at best stands as good a chance as the likes of Mark Warner, Evan Bayh and others of winning the nomination…

At the moment while the Democratic field for 2008 is wide open is also easily handicapped…

Front Runners:
These are the candidates with the grassroots support, financial backing, national profile and political/personal narrative that will mean that are capable of running powerful campaigns for the party’s nomination in 2008, though some have a greater chance of success than others…   


Hillary Clinton:
 – Solid support from Democratic Party donors but only a weak base of support within the party’s grassroots and continues to face concerns that she is too divisive a candidate despite a fairly moderate and hawkish record in the senate. 

Evan Bayh:
- Rock Solid support on the right of the party as well as party donors and one of, GOP Dominated, Indiana’s most popular politicians. A long record as a moderate in the senate has earnt him the eminently of the hard left of the party but after two election defeats for the democrats his experience and support leave him in a strong position. 
Mark Warner:
- A popular Southern governor with a vast personal fortune (not thanks to marrying a wealthy widow or inheritance) and a proven record of raising money from the party’s big money backers, a populist record which would probably make his task of winning the nomination easier than other moderates, such as Bayh, and yet would mean he would be very competitive in a national contest. His short term in office and his lack of foreign policy experience could be serious weaknesses in both the primaries and a general election however his successes as VA governor and his strong financial backing make him like Bayh and Hillary a very serious candidate.

John Kerry:
- He’s in a very strong financial position and has the basis for a strong national machine, however how much more money and support he could attract after his defeat in the 2004 presidential election remains to be seen, personally I think Kerry will look into a race and in the end decide that he can’t run either that or he will be an early drop out after disappointing performances in NH and IA – Then again he’s “done a Lazarus” before but this time I think he’s going to stay dead.

Russ Feingold:
- The ideological heir of Howard Dean but with a greater gift for communication and modest flare for bi-partisanship, he could reply on a great deal of support from the Liberal wing of the party and no doubt garner the same kind of small donation based financial backing which Dean enjoyed in 2003/04. But Like Dean he could face concerns that he is too liberal to be competitive nationally but the likely strength of his support from the Liberal left mean that he would have a good shot a winning the nomination if not the general election.                     
 

Midlevel Candidates:
Those candidates who are likely to begin their campaigns from a less strong position than the “front runners” , this does not mean that some will not become stronger candidates as the contest for the nomination moves on (as happened to Howard Dean) but rather that they start from a weaker position.   


John Edwards:
 – An ill spent six year term as NC Senator where he seemed to only succeed in laying the ground work for his failed run for the Presidential nomination in 04 and raking up a liberal voting record on the back of very low attendance as a Senator. His impressive fundraising in 2003/04 came largely from fellow trial lawyers and it is possible that he might be able to replicate that in a future run for the presidency, but after four years out of office and an unspectacular performance as John Kerry’s running mate I think it is unlikely and he would be best to “play it long” rehabilitant himself as a moderate southern democrat back in NC. 

Bill Richardson:
- A good record as NM governor and would be likely to win strong support from Hispanics, but his time as Energy sectary in the Clinton Administration would come back to haunt him and he would be unlikely to garner much popular or financial support from within the Democratic Party.
               
Ed Rendell
- A moderately successful, ideologically moderate Democratic Governor of an important swing state But with little national profile, not much of a natural base within the national party and with no inclination it would seem to want to seek the presidency, at least not at the moment, while he would be a credible candidate if he where to run he’d be hard pressed to distinguish himself and would face criticism over his mixed record as PA governor.
   
Jo Biden
- A foreign Policy Hawk, who in many ways is unchallenged within the Senates Democratic Caucus as an expert on foreign policy, an area of traditional democrat weakens since Vietnam. But with a mixed record on domestic issues as a senator and a previous disastrous run for president in 1988 his foreign policy expertise could count for little. Like many of the other midlevel candidates he would have to work to build up his support and profile with the wider democratic party but could rise to the top tier along a similar path to that of John Kerry in 2003/04 where foreign affairs to be a defining issue at the time.

There are other potential midlevel candidates who could become credible candidates for the nomination (even if their credibility in a general election where to be more suspect), Governors Tom Vilsack, Janet Napolitano, Mike Easley, Brian Schweitzer and Phil Bredesen are all potential candidates as are congressmen and senators such as Blanche Lincoln, Dick Durbin (*shudder*), Loretta Sanchez etc… and non poltical figures such as Wes Clark. There are also the “nut-jobs” such as a Kucinich, Brown, Kaptur and Sharpton, some of whom will no doubt be along for the ride at some point between 2006 and 2008 but will have next to no impact on the mainstream field its self.             

[Ben.]

i doubt joe biden would be interested in being vice president.

I thought that, but then these quotes from Biden taken at a Jefferson-Jackson dinner popped up a while back…

On a possible Warner run for the White House
"My name is Joe Biden and I'm here to audition for Vice President of the United States of America"
later on at the same event
"When I'm Mark Warner's Vice President.”.

[TheresNoMoney]

Joe Biden would love to be president, VP, or Secretary of State. He just wants to be part of some presidential administration.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I'd say Secy. of State.

[Moooooo]

i doubt joe biden would be interested in being vice president.

On a possible Warner run for the White House, Senator Joe Biden teased the February 5th Jefferson-Jackson dinner crowd with lines such as

"My name is Joe Biden and I'm here to audition for Vice President of the United States of America" and even more obviously, "When I'm Mark Warner's Vice President.”.

[Moooooo]

Explain how he beats Hillary in the primary.

Voter fatigue.  By 2008 she will have been so hyped up voters will probably gag when they hear the name Hillary Clinton.

And we all know Mark Warner is the only candidate with the $$$ and financial backers capable of keeping up with Hillary.

[tinman64]

Warner/Biden -- sounds like a winning ticket to me.

[Erc]

Biden's point in declaring so early is really to get the VP slot.  If he gets the nomination, then great for him...but he knows he really doesn't have a shot in hell.  So he's gunning for the VP slot...at this point, under Hillary, but if someone else emerges then that's good too.


Warner/Biden would be scary.  Don't do it.

[Moooooo]

Warner/Biden would be scary.  Don't do it.

What do you mean?

[Democratic Hawk]

Warner/Biden would be scary.  Don't do it.

What do you mean?

Not sure what Erc means.  Scary from a Republican point of view , perhaps!

Dave

[Erc]

Warner/Biden would be scary.  Don't do it.

What do you mean?

Not sure what Erc means.  Scary from a Republican point of view , perhaps!

Dave

Exactly.  So don't do it.  Although I probably shouldn't be telling you this...


But I'm sure that the Democratic Voters of Iowa and New Hampshire won't be that intelligent...

[Ben.]

But I'm sure that the Democratic Voters of Iowa and New Hampshire won't be that intelligent...

It wouldn't surprise me

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Explain how he beats Hillary in the primary.

Unlike the Republican primaries where you blindly vote for whoever the leadership wants to win, the Democratic primaries are a bit more complicated. Compare Dean on January 1st, 2004 to Dean on January 31st, 2004.

[Erc]

But I'm sure that the Democratic Voters of Iowa and New Hampshire won't be that intelligent...

It wouldn't surprise me

I'm sure that the Republican voters of Iowa and New Hampshire will be equally stupid.

If it ends up Frist v. Hillary, I'm leaving the Republican Party for good.

[tarheel-leftist85]

But I'm sure that the Democratic Voters of Iowa and New Hampshire won't be that intelligent...

I leaving politics for good

It wouldn't surprise me

I'm sure that the Republican voters of Iowa and New Hampshire will be equally stupid.

If it ends up Frist v. Hillary, I'm leaving the Republican Party for good.

[socaldem]

One of the problems with Biden is that he doesn't really offer any regional balance to Warner...

As for Warner's chances in the Democratic primary...I think he has a good chance...I wonder if he could somoehow appeal to dissatisfied anti-establishment leftists in the primary... would Warner have any chance at capturing these voters by, for instance, criticizing Hillary and the washington democratic establishment on the war?  Has Warner established any foreign policy positions?

After making vague criticisms of Democrats for laying down for Bush on the war in the primary, he could then cozy up with the internationalist establishment by picking Biden so that he's ready for the general....

[Platypus]

I'd love it.

[Storebought]

You forum Democrats are delusional if you think Warner will have a chance during the 2008 primary.

Her Royal Highness, the Junior Senator of New York, is already on the hard fundraiser circuit, in VA no less:

Clinton Clashes In Warner Territory

[Keystone Phil]

You forum Democrats are delusional if you think Warner will have a chance during the 2008 primary.

I've noticed that the more they lose in these House, Senate and Presidential races, the more delusional they get. They think Mark Warner and Evan Bayh will go on some great political crusade and save them by winning back the White House, the Senate and the House. And I also noticed that if they are stuck with weaker candidates (Feingold or Clinton) they still think they'll win by a fairly comfortable margin. Delusional hacks.

[AuH2O]

Well the level of delusionality (I believe that's a made up word) varies within their ranks. nick is fairly reasonable but certainly with regard to the Democratic primary he's not seeing too clearly. But it should be noted this is not a board phenomenon but rather a representation of Democratic partisans, at least on the internet.

Now, Hillary/Warner is a very possible ticket, or Hillary/Bayh--- though Bayh is widely overrated among some Democrats by virtue of his success in Indiana. Those are both short on foreign policy cred, but I do not expect Biden to be picked even if that speciality is required. In any case, the way I approach problems or questions is to look at the whole picture (this often causes problems when I am arguing on this board).

What I mean here is that, for Warner (or Bayh, etc.) to become the nominee, a certain series of events has to occur. Without understanding the reason those events could occur and their potential ramifications, I'm uncomfortable with the notion anyone aside from Hillary can win the Democratic nomination.

I am not opposed to examining the issue more deeply. It would require a separate thread and at least a tentative schedule for the 2008 primaries. There is a scenario floating in my brain that could result in a Warner candidacy, but I haven't thought about it sufficiently to determine how likely it is.