The absentee/early vote thread

[IceSpear]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.

I don't get your logic here. If she was matching Obama's early vote performance, she likely WOULDN'T be trailing in polls there...

[America Needs R'hllor]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.

I don't get your logic here. If she was matching Obama's early vote performance, she likely WOULDN'T be trailing in polls there...

Yeah, the fact that she's trailing in the polls AND doing well in early voting is encouraging for her, logically.

[swf541]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.

I don't get your logic here. If she was matching Obama's early vote performance, she likely WOULDN'T be trailing in polls there...

Yea, I dont remember getting any recent Iowa polls either

[HillOfANight]

Not if independents swing toward Trump

[SunSt0rm]

[Virginiá]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

[The Other Castro]

Maine looks pretty good:

[Speed of Sound]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

[fldemfunds]

Sig bet. Hrc wins fl by 5 or more

I think she'll take FL, but you're out of your mind if you think it'll be by 5. Neither the polls nor even a generous reading of the early vote sees that coming.

Polls have moe. Also I happen to think because of the party shuffling and npas, her lead is being understated in fl.

[Speed of Sound]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

OK I can understand that.  But I think we should put Iowa in perspective.  That was probably one of the most likely Obama states to flip to Republicans this year.  She still has a strong firewall.  And she's even competing in some Romney states.  I don't really get the panic in this thread over a few states that aren't even necessary for her to win (like Iowa, North Carolina, etc.).  Now if someone made a credible argument that she was losing New Mexico or Michigan... then I'd probably be worried.

Oh I agree with you in general. Never during all of this has a firewall state shown any weakness. People want their big kill, and they may get it, but the firewall is, and has been, fine.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
20,500 had voted by 3 PM. Going to be relatively low turnout, but not as low as Sunday. Outside chance to get to 30,000.


Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  17m17 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Not biggest story in FL, but Dems cut GOP lead in #Duuuval from 1.6 to 1.5% today. Why's that important? Trump needs blow out numbers there.

[indietraveler]

democrats received their ballots later this year in iowa. i know a few people who just received theirs within the last week and are just sending them off now. i got mine way later this year too, but i filled mine out as soon as it came.

[Ozymandias]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

[OneJ]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

[swf541]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

Yea, great news for Ashford as well

[dspNY]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

Omaha electoral vote is Lean D. They only led by 200 votes in this metric in 2012 when they lost by 7 points. Now they lead by 12 with possibly a quarter of the vote already cast

[IceSpear]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

[dspNY]

Winning both the Omaha and Northern Maine EVs means that the Trump path of Romney + IA + OH + FL + NV + NH only gets him to 268

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

It's very worth mentioning, by the way, that if she carries NE-02, ME-02, and NV, she doesn't need WI.

[dspNY]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

It's very worth mentioning, by the way, that if she carries NE-02, ME-02, and NV, she doesn't need WI.

If Clinton holds NH

[NOVA Green]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

Omaha electoral vote is Lean D. They only led by 200 votes in this metric in 2012 when they lost by 7 points. Now they lead by 12 with possibly a quarter of the vote already cast

It should also be noted that the 2010 redistricting moved some Democratic areas into NE-01, so is a more Republican district than when Obama won NE-02 back in '08.

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

It's very worth mentioning, by the way, that if she carries NE-02, ME-02, and NV, she doesn't need WI.

If Clinton holds NH

Yes, but I guess I'm not really considering that a swing state right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

It's very worth mentioning, by the way, that if she carries NE-02, ME-02, and NV, she doesn't need WI.

If Clinton holds NH

Yes, but I guess I'm not really considering that a swing state right now.

If Clinton carries ME-02, she's very likely to also carry NH.

[Ozymandias]

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

Looks like it was comparing to same point in time:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  34m34 minutes ago
vs. 8 days out in 2012:
D 20,687 +25.4%
R 20,388 -4.8%
I 7,198 +21.5%
Total 48,425 +12.4%

[Panda Express]

Colorado Daily Update


With about 1/3 of total expected ballots submitted, Dems have increased their ballots submitted from 2014 by about 100,000.


9 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  331,153 (213,975)
Republicans  300,275 (282,317)
Independent 223,540 (156,893)

TOTAL 866,668 (660,113)

Dem turnout up 55%
Rethuglican turnout up 6%
Independent turnout up 42%

Total turnout up 31%