The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

NC-re-alignment:

according to a right-wing-think tank - last summer:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/


compared to the 2012 election there are now 145000 registered democrats less...and 20000 registered republicans more.


https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-03-2012
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-29-2016

unaff are the biggest difference by far.

Democrats still have a very comfy cushion to work with, and unaffiliated appear to be breaking largely for HRC based on EV polling. Souls to the Polls was also a great success today in NC and beyond.

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

[ApatheticAustrian]

we still don't have numbers about sunday NC SttP turnout, have we?

[swf541]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

[Dr. Arch]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

No

[Speed of Sound]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

Nope. Should be announced at 1 am EST.

[BoAtlantis]

Florida early vote, broken out by race/ethnicity. One of these images is reflective of the state's (and America's) diversity.

[ApatheticAustrian]

@Atlantic...what is this?

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

He posted it 4 hours ago, so not sure. If I had to guess, it's probably no.

[BoAtlantis]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

clark county is only updated late in the night. (or the next morning, since nearly no one is around then)

[swf541]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

Nope. Should be announced at 1 am EST.

Thanks

[ApatheticAustrian]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

[swf541]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

[BoAtlantis]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

Either that or higher % of GOP Latinos are breaking for Hillary, not an unrealistic theory.

[Speed of Sound]

we still don't have numbers about sunday NC SttP turnout, have we?

I don't think we have the final NC numbers, no (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

[Dr. Arch]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

Against Trump? Quite a bit I would bet, especially if the highly accurate Latino poll is anywhere close to the estimated numbers. Down ballot candidates in FL will likely receive the typical share of Cuban-American votes.

[swf541]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

Against Trump? Quite a bit I would bet, especially if the highly accurate Latino poll is anywhere close to the estimated numbers. Down ballot candidates in FL will likely receive the typical share of Cuban-American votes.

I agree, I'm just very interested in seeing the margins

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

I wouldn't be taking that out of it. The GOP Latino number is pretty good for them, but given a lot of the unaff are young and latino... there's a ways to go. The AA number is not an issue, it's 3%. Noting, we don't know how they're actually voting... key point. I wouldn't be confident about Latino GOPhers being lined up with DJT.

[ApatheticAustrian]

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

ah, i switched AAs and "other"...my bad.

otherwise you are correct and i am blind.

[swf541]

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

ah, i switched AAs and "other"...my bad.

otherwise you are correct and i am blind.

No problem, was just wondering if i was missing something lol

[Ebsy]

NC-re-alignment:

according to a right-wing-think tank - last summer:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/

compared to the 2012 election there are now 145000 registered democrats less...and 20000 registered republicans more.


https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-03-2012
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-29-2016

unaff are the biggest difference by far.

lol

Civitas are not very smart.

[BoAtlantis]

we still don't have numbers about sunday NC SttP turnout, have we?

I don't think we have the final NC numbers, no (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

Michael Bitzer will have it by tomorrow morning.

[Ebsy]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

[Speed of Sound]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

Indeed. Add the hard breaking UAFs, and you can see why Upshot is so bullish for HRC.