The absentee/early vote thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.

I assume that's sarcastic?

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.

I assume that's sarcastic?

Yes, this is extremely sarcastic. Thousands will vote today alone, and despite having a full rally near polling booths, Trump was able to move a whole 15 of them to the voting booth. That's very very unimpressive and a waste of a campaign day. Clinton will have done more than that in NV during that time without a rally.

[Speed of Sound]

Schale's apparently on/going on Fox. Anyone catch him, by chance?

[Ebsy]

The collapse of the Trump campaign in Nevada has certainly been a sight to see.

[NOVA Green]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

No question, this is huge, and likely understates the Latino registration surge between 2012 and 2016, considering that this data is based solely upon Spanish vs non-Spanish surnames, and within Metro Houston, and likely DFW as well, there is significant intermarriage and various communities with associated name changes.

Also, not covered in this graph is the spike in voter registration numbers in suburban counties around DFW, Austin, and SA (Hays, Williamson, Montgomery, Comal, Denton, Collins, etc...), where much of the recent population growth has been heavily Latino in recent years.

I am curious what voter registration numbers look like between 2012 and 2016 in SouthTex and WestTex in smaller counties and population centers, since although we have seen some data from El Paso County and a few other areas, there is significant room for growth in terms of both raw voter registration as well as a potential collapse of Trump support among rural Latinos in areas that have frequently tended to vote Republican alongside their Anglo neighbors.... IF Clinton ends up winning Latinos in Texas by a +55% margins combined with high turnout, this state could be a real squeaker on election day.

The interesting thing about WestTex is also that the Latino population has surged in several major population centers (Midland and Ector counties) putting them in the top ten list of counties with the largest increase in Latinos in the state, driven heavily as a result of Oil Sector related jobs.

So for example if you look at those two counties, Obama only won 21% and 26% respectively in 2008, and now in 2016 Latinos represent 38% and 53% of the population.... I could run through a list of some (30) counties in Texas that are majority Latino that voted for Romney/McCain, in many cases by 2:1 margins.... If the Latino surge sweeps through WestTex, I would not be surprised to see Clinton ending up with more votes than Trump in that region of the state...

[Virginiá]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

[NOVA Green]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

The crazy font size hurts my eyes, and is one of the major reasons that I rarely quote StatesPoll anymore....

I don't mind quoting back for individuals that post charts and graphs, since it isn't as hard on my eyes, and plus I assume people do as I do and skip down to the body of the text/response, and also with fast-moving threads like this one, some individuals don't go back to reread the previous three pages of posts sometimes, so actually like checking out a new chart/graph, etc.....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

The crazy font size hurts my eyes, and is one of the major reasons that I rarely quote StatesPoll anymore....

I don't mind quoting back for individuals that post charts and graphs, since it isn't as hard on my eyes, and plus I assume people do as I do and skip down to the body of the text/response, and also with fast-moving threads like this one, some individuals don't go back to reread the previous three pages of posts sometimes, so actually like checking out a new chart/graph, etc.....

Why would anyone quote StatesPoll?? He should just be ignored.

[indietraveler]

I wonder what internals are showing for Texas. If Clinton thought she had a chance, why not go for it at this point. At the very least it makes a statement going forward even if she loses the state at the end. Clinton, Kaine, Barack and Michelle each could have made one stop. Are there enough non-voting democrats there to squeak out the win--voters who typically don't participate because Texas is always a red state?

Of course, I say all this with more reservation now thanks to the email situation. I'm sure they're not even thinking about the state at this point.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder what internals are showing for Texas. If Clinton thought she had a chance, why not go for it at this point. At the very least it makes a statement going forward even if she loses the state at the end. Clinton, Kaine, Barack and Michelle each could have made one stop. Are there enough non-voting democrats there to squeak out the win--voters who typically don't participate because Texas is always a red state?

Of course, I say all this with more reservation now thanks to the email situation. I'm sure they're not even thinking about the state at this point.

Texas is a very expensive investment and the state is huge. Remember there's basically a week left and last-minute changes happen a lot.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Funny we're talking about Texas, because I voted today!

[Speed of Sound]

Seems like it won't be quite the day hoped for in Clark at least, where voting's been low. Don't have comps or breakdown yet, of course, though.

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[NOVA Green]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):


https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

New Voters. Hispanic and Non Hispanic voters.
Dallas county 21% -6% = 15%
Harris county 22%-10% = 12%

Considering in rural areas of texas. less Hispanic %
So, I'd guess increase amount Hispanic voters in Texas(statewide) it would be about 10%

But, seriously Red Avatars think, Hillary can flip Texas by adding 2.6% more than 2012?

You don't know what you are talking about regarding Latino % of the population in "Rural Texas".

(56) counties in Texas out of (254) are majority Latino 22% of the counties in the state, and almost entirely "rural" and "small town" Texas.

We could throw in another (20) counties where Latinos are greater than 40% of the population (all "rural" with the exception of Harris County), again all beyond the statewide proportion of Latinos.

In fact of the (254) counties of Texas the overwhelming majority are at least 20% Latino, excepting maybe 10-15% of the counties in the state that are predominately in EastTex, where the Republican vote is basically maxed out (Think Deep South).

Even in the counties with the lowest proportion of Latinos in the state, you have some of the highest level of increase of Latino population (Jefferson & Orange County) as a result of work in the oil refineries....

Sir, your argument is completely inaccurate and spurious to boot.

Yes, the population of Latinos in Texas is heavily concentrated in large Metro areas, just as is the population of Anglos, African-Americans, and Asian-Americans, in a state that is basically 80% urban/suburban/exurban concentrated in six major metro areas.

I fail to see your logic.... we don't know what Latino registration and turnout levels are looking like in rural Texas, but as I stated on a previous post on this thread, if the Latino voting surge AND rejection of an extremist Republican among many Latino voters that frequently vote Republican in statewide elections is translated to "rural" Texas, the county map will look extremely interesting come November 2016.

[Xing]

Apparently, Democrats are having an off-day today in NV. Any word on Souls to the Polls?

[Speed of Sound]

Don't be so quickly to worry about NV, though:

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[Ebsy]

Ralston loves to scaremonger about the GOP beating Democratic turnout in Clark County.

[Ozymandias]

Most NV early voting centers are closed today-- only Clark and Washoe are open: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555

So since most of the closed counties are Republican-leaning, it's very unlikely Dems will lose any ground today.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder what internals are showing for Texas. If Clinton thought she had a chance, why not go for it at this point. At the very least it makes a statement going forward even if she loses the state at the end. Clinton, Kaine, Barack and Michelle each could have made one stop. Are there enough non-voting democrats there to squeak out the win--voters who typically don't participate because Texas is always a red state?

Of course, I say all this with more reservation now thanks to the email situation. I'm sure they're not even thinking about the state at this point.

Texas is a very expensive investment and the state is huge. Remember there's basically a week left and last-minute changes happen a lot.

Investment in Texas is a giant Catch-22....

In order to make the state competitive, there needs to be a massive investment in voter registration drives in a state with one of the lowest turnout rates in the entire country.

In order for the Democratic Party, and outside organizations to have funding for a massive registration effort, the state needs to actually deliver Democratic Party results and look competitive.

The weird thing about this election, is that if the state ends up being within 2-3% for Trump, as I am expecting, there will likely be a major infusion of outside investment towards voter registration and party infrastructure. however it won't necessarily manifest results since most Texas Republicans are savvy enough to not go full-tilt on an anti-Latino agenda.

Now, hypothetically if the Republicans with their division between the Trump vs Establishment types decide to go with another GE candidate that scapegoats Latinos, this state might well potentially flip in 2020.

Another thought to put in the pipe, is if Texas Latinos start voting 75-25 or 80-20 Democratic, will many of these voters abandon the Republican Party altogether, regardless of their candidate, similar to what we saw in Cali after prop 189 passed?

[Doimper]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

The crazy font size hurts my eyes, and is one of the major reasons that I rarely quote StatesPoll anymore....

I don't mind quoting back for individuals that post charts and graphs, since it isn't as hard on my eyes, and plus I assume people do as I do and skip down to the body of the text/response, and also with fast-moving threads like this one, some individuals don't go back to reread the previous three pages of posts sometimes, so actually like checking out a new chart/graph, etc.....

Why would anyone quote StatesPoll?? He should just be ignored.

I have never felt more grim about the direction of this nation than I did the day I found out StatesPoll has 80k followers on Twitter

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So how is it looking for everyone?

[HillOfANight]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

The 2012 election's story was just broadly about demographics, but the 2016 election could well be squarely based on the power of the Latino vote.

[dspNY]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

Those NPA Hispanic voters were the group that Nate Cohn said his poll would not be able to catch. 29% of 476K is 138K new voters. They're probably breaking about 3-1 for Clinton too. That's part of how she can lead by 13-15 points in the early vote when party ID stats are even

[PollsDontLie]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

I get why the cannibalization could be bad for Rs, but your second point does not add up for me.  So what you're saying is that votes for those who are new or skipped the 2012 election break down as follows?

Hispanic: 138k
Black: 66k
White: 500k

In other words, there are 2.5 times as many white voters who are new or who didn't vote in 2012 than there are hispanic or black voters COMBINED.  How is this bad for Rs again?

[dspNY]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

I get why the cannibalization could be bad for Rs, but your second point does not add up for me.  So what you're saying is that votes for those who are new or skipped the 2012 election break down as follows?

Hispanic: 138k
Black: 66k
White: 500k

In other words, there are 2.5 times as many white voters who are new or who didn't vote in 2012 than there are hispanic or black voters.  How is this bad for Rs again?

A good portion of those white voters who didn't vote in 2012 are young