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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1277 on: October 29, 2016, 11:10:35 AM » |
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« Edited: October 29, 2016, 11:16:36 AM by StatesPoll »
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North Carolina Early Voting Black voter shares: 30%(2012) -> 22%(10/29) Decreased by 26.6% Hillary is finished in NC Florida Early voting Hillary is finished in FL 1) Vote by mails. 10/29/2016: REP +3.3% >= 2012 final results Rep +3% 2) Early voting in person. 10/28: DEM +3.34% much better than 2012 final results DEM +10% 3) Total: 3.253 Million voted. REP 40.8% | DEM 40.1% | Ind 19.1% REP 1.328 Million votes | DEM 1.305 Million. REP +0.7% (10/29/2016) GOP is doing far much better than 2012. about +3.7% better. (2012 final results of Early voting: DEM +3%.) I. Florida Vote-By-Mail 10/29/2016 6:44AM https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStatsVoted Ballots: 1.86 Million votes. REP: 784K (42.15%) | DEM: 723K (38.87%) | Other 18.98% REP: +3.28%. A bit batter than 2012. (Vote-By-Mail 2012 final results : REP +3%) II. Florida Early Voting In person. 10/29/2016 6:44AM Voted(Total) : 1.393 Million votes. REP: 543.9K (39.05%) | DEM: 582.4K (41.81%) | Other 19.14% DEM +2.76% very good numbers for TRUMP. Because in 2012 final results, it was Dem +10% (DEM 46 : REP 36) III. Vote-by-mail(Total Requests) in BIG 3 Dem county increae % = getting down I’m sure GOP gonna expand leads of vote-by-mail. Miami-Dade: 386K(10/27) -> 395K(10/29) = +2.3% in 2days (+1.15% / day) Broward: 268K(10/27) -> 270K(10/29) = +0.74% in 2days (+0.37% / day) Orange: 204K(10/27) ->208.3K(10/29) = +2.1% in 2days (+1.05% / day)
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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1284 on: October 29, 2016, 11:25:51 AM » |
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It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.
And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.
CO is interesting. at the beginning DEM bragged D+10% BLAH BLAH BLAH Now it is D+3.9% (I know it was slightlly +R in 2012)
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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1287 on: October 29, 2016, 11:39:01 AM » |
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« Edited: October 29, 2016, 11:43:05 AM by StatesPoll »
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i can with some mental tricks understand how people could doubt FL/NC but...how in 7 hells is hard-early-voting republican nightmare NV a problem?
hahahaha nightmare? didn't u dem bragged D+18% in NV? Now it is D+8% (Same as 2012 level) don't u think it gonna be dead heat in next week? hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Ozymandias
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #1290 on: October 29, 2016, 11:47:22 AM » |
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Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY "Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates" This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.
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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1291 on: October 29, 2016, 11:49:25 AM » |
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Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY "Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"
This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.
Blah blah blah so what? Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results the point is GOP is doing better than 2012 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg
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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1296 on: October 29, 2016, 11:54:03 AM » |
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wth believe that skewed poll ? get this trhough your head. Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.
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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« Reply #1297 on: October 29, 2016, 11:56:17 AM » |
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Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY "Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"
This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.
Blah blah blah so what?
Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results
the point is GOP is doing better than 2012
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg
Are they? Trump's Republican support is 10% less than Romney's and his Democratic support is virtually zero
Michael McDonald @ElectProject Oct 28 NC Dems made up lost ground from last week of poll closures, now running -6.9% behind 2012. Reps actually running +0.3% ahead of 2012
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