The absentee/early vote thread

[Person Man]

So, it would take something big in Nevada, Colorado, or Florida stop them there. North Carolina seems rough but it has good polling. I think my map is good at this point.

[KingSweden]

Consider that polling place changes can be affecting NC numbers. I don't know how you'd adjust for it, but you'd expect Dems to be behind

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/early-voting-update-clinton-trump-election-2016/
Updated 10/28 9AM.

Arizona swinging back to GOP, but bad compared to 2012. Warning signs for Clinton in North Carolina and Georgia. Good signs for Clinton in CO, FL, NV

Arizona
Republicans are leading now, 1.7%, but well off the 8.5% lead they had at this point in 2012.

Colorado
Democrats have doubled their lead this week, from 10K to 24K. GOP had a lead of 6K at this point in 2012.

Florida
GOP leads by 6K now. They were leading by 18K earlier in the week.

Georgia
Black voters are 30% of electorate, compared to 34% in 2012 at this point.

Nevada
Dems lead by 11.3%, ahead of their 10% edge in 2012 at the same point.

North Carolina
Black share of vote is 24% today, compared to 30% in 2012. White vote is 72% now compared to 64%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

NC are in a good position right now to overtake their 2012 numbers soon.

have halved their 2012 deficit the last 48 hours afaik.

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten)))Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
@ralstonreports Is the cake mostly baked in NV cause of the early vote? (at least in the prez race...)

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))
Not quite yet, but pretty close. If Democrats get up to 60,000 or so raw vote lead in Clark, which looks likely, bye bye Trump.

[Hydera]

Surge in early voting after polling locations increased in NC.

The preferences of unaffiliated voters is like a mystery box now.

[Gustaf]

more FL fun....

EXCLUSIVE: Of the 514k EIP & VBM who've voted in FL but who skipped 2012 or registered subsequently:

67% white

8% black

17% Hispanic


In FL, 53% of registered "Active" voters are women, 45% are men.

Of those who have voted as of this am...

54% women

44% men

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791837496954978304

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

[jamestroll]

I would not really overthink absentee and early voting to predict final results. There are still a significant amount of voters who vote on election day.

Absentee balloting, I understand. I am in a situation myself where I live in one state, but vote and have residence in another.

It is logical to have absentee voting, of course. And it would be logical to allow early voting 1 week before election day.

But this month long to 45 day early voting, I really am not a fan of. At all.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What's all the rest supposed to be?

"unknown", a category mostly filled with rarely voting latinos.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I would not really overthink absentee and early voting to predict final results. There are still a significant amount of voters who vote on election day.

depends on state and year.

this year it will be record-breaking and settle some states for good.

[Virginiá]

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

I wonder why that is. I would have to assume that such a drop right now is something that will eventually even out, even if only on election day. Even in 2004, before Obama, African American's share of the FL electorate was 12% (vs 13% in 2008/2012)

A 5% drop would be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

[ApatheticAustrian]

relax.

hispanic turnout increased and florida started with EIPV just a few days ago.

if it is still the same next tuesday, you can worry.

[Ebsy]

You can't accurately measure what black turnout will be until Souls to the Polls on Sunday.

[Gass3268]

For people concerned about NC, they should really check out NYT Upshots daily projection for NC. It is based on the early vote data and the data they got polling the state. Hillary's lead has gone up since it went live a couple days ago. I think there is going to be a good % of Registered Republicans in South Charlotte and the Raleigh-Durham area that will go for Clinton. You can see it in the map they made from polling data. This wouldn't clearly show up in other polls because I imagine many of those folks no longer self identify as Republicans.

[Virginiá]

relax.

hispanic turnout increased and florida started with EIPV just a few days ago.

if it is still the same next tuesday, you can worry.

Oh I'm not really worried. I might have been if it said 11% but 8% is too far off to mark for me to consider it a valid representation of 2016's FL electorate. Such a collapse in turnout within just a 4 year time span is wildly unrealistic unless say, Republicans had reintroduced a watered down version of Jim Crow voting restrictions.

[ApatheticAustrian]

after this weekend dems should be FAR AHEAD of their 2012 numbers in NC if the last 2 days are a symbol of anything.

[Gass3268]

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

I wonder why that is. I would have to assume that such a drop right now is something that will eventually even out, even if only on election day. Even in 2004, before Obama, African American's share of the FL electorate was 12% (vs 13% in 2008/2012)

A 5% drop would be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

Those numbers are of people who didn't either didn't vote in 2012 or are newly registered voters since 2012.

Before early voting the white vote from all VBM was 80%, after 4 days of in person voting it's down to 72%. I imagine that number will drop even more after this weekend. Also Micheal McDonald said that the Republican advantage due to VBM could be coming to an end and Democrats currently have more outstanding ballots.

[Virginiá]

Those numbers are of people who didn't either didn't vote in 2012 or are newly registered voters since 2012.

Ohh whoops!

BUT still, if it is among new / non-2012 voters, shouldn't African American turnout (among that group) still eventually average out to 12% - 13%? Since it doesn't, at least right now, couldn't that be interpreted to either be a slowing of African American participation post-Obama or perhaps that because African American participation in FL is already so high, it can't go much higher? (particularly in FL with almost 1/4 black adults being disenfranchised)

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX #earlyvote 10/28 update: nearly 1.8 Million voted, up 49.9% same days before election in 2012
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[Gass3268]

Those numbers are of people who didn't either didn't vote in 2012 or are newly registered voters since 2012.

Ohh whoops!

BUT still, if it is among new / non-2012 voters, shouldn't African American turnout (among that group) still eventually average out to 12% - 13%? Since it doesn't, at least right now, couldn't that be interpreted to either be a slowing of African American participation post-Obama or perhaps that because African American participation in FL is already so high, it can't go much higher? (particularly in FL with almost 1/4 black adults being disenfranchised)

My guess is it's the second point you made. Much more room to grow in many states with the Latino electorate, while the black vote is essentially maxed out.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I wish we could get partisan breakdown from Texas but in TX we don't register along partisan lines and so...speaking of which, I plan on early voting in Tarrant County tomorrow, I'll let y'all know how the lines are, I've been hearing of a lot of long lines lately.

[The Other Castro]

KS Sec. of State ‏@KansasSOS
So far statewide, 153,603 votes cast in this election. Compared to 117,086 in 2012.

That's a 31% increase over 2012.

[Dr. Arch]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

[ApatheticAustrian]

from michael:

turnout up everywhere...besides midwest.

[Absolution9]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

Tough to tell.  What's odd is that 67% of all new and non-2012 voters in Florida are white.  I would have thought that the white vote was more maxed out than that similar to how the black vote appears.  Assumed that Hispanics would have made up a much higher portion of the new voters as they have had very low turnout rates in the past.  That's looks like a positive for Republicans honestly.