The absentee/early vote thread

[JerryArkansas]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

[HillOfANight]

Guys, please stop the hype !
This is so meaningless right now.

I agree, at least, don't think we need daily updates of slight movements. Would rather read more detailed analysis from election experts, and if we want daily analysis, we can follow https://twitter.com/ElectProject

[ApatheticAustrian]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

Because it's apples and oranges. In the Austrian presidential election, far-right winger Hofer won the election day vote 52-48 (which was 85% of the total vote), but left-winger Van der Bellen won the postal vote (15% of the vote) by 65-35, giving him the small win.

Just because the Dems do well with a handful of requested postal ballots, it doesn't mean this will be an indicator for a good election outcome for them ...

If the trend continues with 70-80% of the postal vote in, that's a different thing. But hyping around with 1% of postal ballots cast is ridiculous.

[JerryArkansas]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

Because it's apples and oranges. In the Austrian presidential election, far-right winger Hofer won the election day vote 52-48 (which was 85% of the total vote), but left-winger Van der Bellen won the postal vote (15% of the vote) by 65-35, giving him the small win.

Just because the Dems do well with a handful of requested postal ballots, it doesn't mean this will be an indicator for a good election outcome for them ...

If the trend continues with 70-80% of the postal vote in, that's a different thing. But hyping around with 1% of postal ballots cast is ridiculous.

When Republican margins are built on these damn postal votes going massively for them, then yes it is ok to follow this kind of stuff.

[Tender Branson]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

[Maxwell]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

Republicans tend to be ahead by alot in Florida absentees, which doesn't seem to be the case this time around.

[Brittain33]

The absence of a functioning campaign to drive absentee voting would mean that a good chunk of that 50% drop-off simply transitions to in-person voting, rather than dropping out of the election.

[BoAtlantis]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

Iowa and Ohio are the only states where the early trend doesn't look good. Democrats registration is outpacing Republicans' in most swing states.

Absentee heavily skews older people. In 2008, FL Republicans had the advantage 51-32% in absentee requests (and Obama still won FL by almost 3%). It's too early to tell but to say Democrats don't have a favorable trend right now is being far too pessimistic.

[psychprofessor]

Robby Mook conf call today:

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  14m14 minutes ago
Mook says Clinton campaign set to break “vote by mail records in Florida”

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  12m12 minutes ago
Mook says Hispanic ballot requests in NC are up 33% compared to 2012. White requests are down.

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  9m9 minutes ago
In conference call, Robby Mook says total vote in 2016 will break records. Relevant amid talk of dispiriting campaign driving down turnout.

[BL53931]

We deposited our ballots today with our county election commission. Earliest we've ever voted. Three votes (Myself, wife and adult son) for the straight Democratic ticket.

[Maxwell]

yeah... there's not a chance this is a low turnout election.

[ApatheticAustrian]

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

as far as i know republicans are down hard from 2012 in FL und NC and dems are again increasing their numbers in registration spikes in the final week.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article108036537.html

North Carolina
- white votes down more than 1/3
- black votes down a bit

Ohio
- bigger declines in requests in the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin as posted earlier
- the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent.

[dspNY]

Florida VBM:

Ballots Requested + Votes

GOP: 1,091,602 + 83,646 = 1,175,248 (41.0%)
DEM: 1,039,497 + 77,817 = 1,117,314 (39.0%)
IND: 473,708 + 29,378 = 503,086 (17.6%)
Others: 64,440 + 6,016 = 70,456 (2.4%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

yeah... there's not a chance this is a low turnout election.

Yup, I've thought this for a long time.

[dspNY]

They'll probably update it one more time today but in Florida VBM, Democrats have cut the total ballots requested disadvantage to 48,000 (42,000 fewer ballots requested and 6,000 fewer ballots cast)

[Gass3268]

They'll probably update it one more time today but in Florida VBM, Democrats have cut the total ballots requested disadvantage to 48,000 (42,000 fewer ballots requested and 6,000 fewer ballots cast)

When is the deadline for this?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/fla-early-ballots-and-voter-registration-numbers-show-democrats-surging-in-fla-106392

Among voted absentee ballots

GOP ahead by 1.9% now in Florida. It was a 3.9% advantage at the same point in 2012. And they had a 3% advantage on Thursday, so they're dropping fast.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  900,994 or 1.9% of 2012 advance voting.

Florida is at 310,760 or 6.5% of 2012 advance voting.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[RJEvans]

Ultimately, IA and OH won't matter so long as Clinton wins NC and FL.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

Safe Clinton

[dspNY]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

[dspNY]

To compare, there was little net change in voter registration numbers from 2008 to 2012 in TX