SC-First Tuesday Strategies (R): Trump +12
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Author Topic: SC-First Tuesday Strategies (R): Trump +12  (Read 972 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: September 06, 2016, 11:26:29 PM »
Trump - 50%
Clinton - 38%
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 1%

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http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/politics/poll-trump-up-by-12-points-in-sc/314493283
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 11:30:42 PM »
So I guess Trump is really only up single digits here - sad!
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jamestroll
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 11:32:36 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 06, 2016, 11:30:42 PM
So I guess Trump is really only up single digits here - sad!

Yea.. It is probably Trump +7 to +9.

I was really hoping South Carolina could be competitive. But like the MO pollster earlier today, this is a Republican pollster. Hopefully they are just trying to boost Trump media wise, so to speak.
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Lachi
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 11:33:22 PM »
Landline only polling...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 11:34:13 PM »

Then Trump is f***ed then...
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Matty
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 11:44:41 PM »
This is a state that romney won by 10. It's also a state with lots of establishment republican voters. It's not surprising trump is slightly underpeforming.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 11:52:21 PM »
Even factoring in that this is Trump-friendly, things have moved in Trump's direction.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 11:57:46 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 06, 2016, 11:52:21 PM
Even factoring in that this is Trump-friendly, things have moved in Trump's direction.

Well the national race has shifted, so it makes sense.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2016, 04:23:27 AM »
Looks like the race in general is trending towards Trump once again.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2016, 04:38:25 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 07, 2016, 04:31:32 AM
B-b-but muh Tossup SC! Sad Anyway, this is not surprising at all. SC won't be competitive, but it should trend Democratic - especially if Trump wins.
Next step is NH. Get prepared Smiley

Nothing intresting, if this pollster is R...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2016, 10:43:59 AM »
Are we really buying a landline only poll from a polling firm that no one has ever heard of as gospel?
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jamestroll
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2016, 11:09:27 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on September 07, 2016, 10:43:59 AM
Are we really buying a landline only poll from a polling firm that no one has ever heard of as gospel?

It appears we are! Join the bandwagon!
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Human
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2016, 11:19:15 AM »
This seems about right.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 11:43:26 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 11:57:36 AM by Tender Branson »
So, what's next ?

A "Last Friday Night Tactics" poll for ND ?
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 12:57:54 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 10, 2016, 11:43:26 AM
So, what's next ?

A "Last Friday Night Tactics" poll for ND ?

Just as long as it isn't a robocall. They can't do robo-polling in North Dakota.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2016, 06:00:17 PM »
This is actually an interesting poll, albeit from a partisan organization using landline only calls....

South Carolina is an extremely inelastic state historically, although it does have a much higher proportion of college educated white voters, "country club" Republicans, military veterans, and certainly Black voters than many other states.

Bill Clinton did a relatively decent job here losing by only 8-6 points respectively in '92 and then '96.

Democratic support remained static in 2000 and 2004 stuck at 41% while George W. added +9-10% to the Republican total numbers. George W. performed extraordinarily well in SC....

'08/'12 SC has been shifting Democrat with a +9-11% Republican lead in respectively in those two years.

This is not mainly a factor of Black turnout, although that probably add 1-2% to the Democratic number, but rather a reversion to the base Democratic voter, after George W. performed extraordinarily well for a Republican in 2000 and 2004.

The only poll showing Trump at over 45% in non-binary polls is this one, and even with binary polls Ipsos has shown this state moving from tied to Trump +3-4 over the past month.... we've seen a couple polls from Google Consumer Surveys that is generally agreed is a trash pollster, that stretch to Trump +10, and a C- Survey Monkey showing the state as +7 Trump.

Reality is that Trump is likely up +5-7 right now, but SC will be a tossup if Clinton is able to open up a 6-8% national lead come election day.

SC historically has low 3rd party voting habits, and right now it looks like the Libertarians and Greens have maybe 4% of the vote.

If Clinton can hit 47% this is definitely a horserace, and she is so near but so far, but all it takes are country-club Republicans not voting top of ticket, going 3rd party, and angry suburban South Carolinian Christian Women deciding Trump is not the right person for the job....
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2016, 10:50:07 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 10, 2016, 11:43:26 AM
So, what's next ?

A "Last Friday Night Tactics" poll for ND ?

I would like any poll from North Dakota to be honest.
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