WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states! (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 01, 2022, 11:33:40 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states! (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 8999 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,034
United States


« on: September 06, 2016, 07:31:24 AM »


I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.

But Clinton also losing in Iowa. We have seen a trend for polls showing Hilary Clinton slipping behind in Iowa. 

If well-educated white suburbanites are beginning to vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as they are doing in such states as California and Illinois (extreme D states),  Minnesota and Pennsylvania (not-so-extreme D states) or Florida and Ohio (legitimate swing states), then Donald Trump can lose those three states. Maricopa County (including practically all of Greater Phoenix, including its suburbs) and Tarrant in Texas (including most of the western half of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" go D if the suburban white vote goes about half D. Texas has some suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Johnson, Fort Bend, and Galveston that could swing enough votes to make the state swing strongly D. Enough? Who knows?

...Something on Texas: the right-wing swing in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s resulted from newcomers then largely from the North and West being more Republican than Texans on the whole. But such people have kept their Northern political cultures while the Republicans grabbed the "Yellow Dog" Democrats who voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. (Texas was close when Bill Clinton was running for President... but remember well that southwestern Arkansas, where Bill Clinton is from, is much like eastern Texas). The Northern political culture has become much more Democratic.

It could be that political trends in Texas lag those in such states as Florida and Virginia. Of course, this could also be a one-time event.

Hillary Clinton obviously wins Ohio before she wins Texas. 

Is it possible for a Republican nominee for President to be callow and crass enough to offend enough Texas voters to cause some a million or so to vote against that nominee? Sure. It is possible. Hillary Clinton cannot win Texas, but Donald Trump can certainly lose it.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,034
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 07:44:41 AM »

Basically I can start over with this set of polls in my general map. There may be some strange results.... but counter-intuitive results can be right.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,034
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 12:13:45 PM »


Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.

I don't believe it myself. First of all, the three-way poll suggests a tie, and a 1% lead for a Democratic nominee where no Democratic nominee has had a lead since at least 1996? The word "significant" keeps us from accepting insignificant leads as proof of someone having a good chance. The last PPP poll had Trump up by 5% or so. There has been no Presidential campaigning in Texas. I don;t expect many ad buys in the fiendishly-expensive TV markets of Texas. 

But if Texas is much closer than normal, then that may say things about some other states that aren't so R-leaning as Texas -- like Arizona and Georgia.   
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 13 queries.