WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
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  WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
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Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 9130 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2016, 08:04:53 AM »
« edited: September 06, 2016, 08:52:22 AM by Spicy Purrito »

Do you think people are lying to pollsters more than in the past? I do think that Texas or Utah won't really be that close and that Colorado will only be that close if Trump wins. For that matter, I don't expect Arizona or Georgia to be any close that they have been unless Clinton wins and by enough to get at least close in the Senate. Of course, regional politics might be in decline.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #26 on: September 06, 2016, 08:05:44 AM »


Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey Smiley
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Mallow
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« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2016, 08:06:35 AM »

In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.

Yep. People automatically say "junk" to these 50-state polls because of odd inconsistencies, but odd inconsistencies are to be expected simply from statistical noise. That doesn't mean all the data is worthless. It means we should be considering all polls, regardless of whether they're released as a single state poll or a group of them, with the proper amount of skepticism. They're useful, but there's bound to be errors.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2016, 08:07:23 AM »

This poll was taken from Aug 9 to Sep 1 throw it in the trash
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Wells
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« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2016, 08:10:09 AM »


It's Washington Post/Survey Monkey. It's on the Washington Post's website. The Washington Post has an A+ grade.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2016, 08:12:34 AM »

The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash
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LLR
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« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2016, 08:25:51 AM »

LOL Johnson's at 25 in NM and 23 in UT Tongue
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Wells
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2016, 08:28:07 AM »

The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash

No, but Trump's not doing so well in this poll if it was taken over a 4 day period you'd still find an excuse to say it's trash.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2016, 08:30:01 AM »

Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2016, 08:30:31 AM »


Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is from Survey Monkey Smiley
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2016, 10:10:22 AM »

Let's give Trump Florida and Michigan (where he's down by 1 or 2- or insert PA for MI if you prefer).  Then, you get this fun map:

I'm making the executive decision that if he's only down 3 in Maine, he's up in ME-02.  Not sure about being up 10 in Nebraska relative to NE-02, especially that's the part of the state where Johnson and Stein will do well.



IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TEXAS!!!
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2016, 10:11:49 AM »


Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:56 AM »

Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?
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Xing
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« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2016, 10:23:13 AM »

These 50-state polls are always junk. Much as I'd like to believe that Texas is a virtual tie, it's not. And Iowa will not be to the right of it.
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Figueira
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« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2016, 10:35:05 AM »

You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright

You can't ignore a poll purely because you don't like the results. I highly doubt Clinton is leading in Texas, but it's still a good poll AFAICT.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2016, 11:00:15 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 11:14:30 AM by ExtremeRepublican »

The second page of comments isn't displaying for me, even though I know there are more (I posted about an hour ago, and that and all subsequent ones won't show up).

FIXED
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Seriously?
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« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2016, 11:15:14 AM »

You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!
Keep in mind that with this poll, about 2 1/2 polls will fail as a matter of science. Some screwy results should be expected.
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Mallow
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« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2016, 11:59:45 AM »

Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.

It says right in the article that the sample size was too small for DC. Just because its population is higher doesn't mean more people were surveyed.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2016, 12:13:45 PM »


Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.

I don't believe it myself. First of all, the three-way poll suggests a tie, and a 1% lead for a Democratic nominee where no Democratic nominee has had a lead since at least 1996? The word "significant" keeps us from accepting insignificant leads as proof of someone having a good chance. The last PPP poll had Trump up by 5% or so. There has been no Presidential campaigning in Texas. I don;t expect many ad buys in the fiendishly-expensive TV markets of Texas. 

But if Texas is much closer than normal, then that may say things about some other states that aren't so R-leaning as Texas -- like Arizona and Georgia.   
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Seriously?
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« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2016, 12:21:23 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 12:28:20 PM by Seriously? »

Also keep in mind that Survey Monkey is still RV vs. LV. for Reuters That may also explain some of the differences.

Also for some of the Reuters polls, the MOEs are crazy, generally for states with less than 3,000,000 or so in population or < 6 EV.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2016, 12:26:36 PM »

Texas!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2016, 12:27:27 PM »

You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!

RE-ALIGNMENT FOLKS!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2016, 12:33:48 PM »

Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?
Yes, it should. Whoever added it as WaPo is lyin', crocked pundit! Cheesy
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2016, 12:42:58 PM »

Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.

What would the outliers be?

TX and MS.

Those 2 will be easy Trump wins.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2016, 01:15:10 PM »


Hes within striking distance of 2nd place in both states.  Tongue

New Mexico
Clinton 37%
Trump 29%
Johnson 25%
Stein 5%

Utah
Trump 34%
Clinton 27%
Johnson 23%
Stein 5%
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