Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[Seriously?]

WTF?

They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie

So should we unskew this poll?

Of course, Trump is ahead.

[Seriously?]

The one thing I find fascinating about the crosstabs is that the age gap is huge. Trump is winning those 65+ years old 55/38 (and that age group has the smallest MOE, so largest share of sample), and winning 50-64 years old 53/38. Among 35-49 years old, the race is Trump 45/44.

That would mean Hillary would have to be winning Millenials by a an absolutely huge margin to get the overall race to 45/43 Trump! If they are so small a segment as to not be reported out separately, then they cannot be closer than a 35 point Clinton lead, at the smallest.

1) Historically young people don't vote.
2) Statistically, young people are most likely to vote third party.
3) A lot of the young people were Bernie supporters.

Do the math on the conclusion from that.

[Seriously?]

CNN wants to keep the horse race going, which explains this poll.

No. The race is likely in a Trump +2 to Hillary +5 range is what I take from the entirety of the polling in the recent week. That includes 3 of the 4 trackers, as Reuters is MIA.

[Seriously?]

1) Historically young people don't vote.

Young people do usually have the lowest turnout, as far as I know. A little off topic, but is that true historically, or is that a more recent phenomenon? 

Historically. And it's getting worse as the population lives longer.

You'll get like 15-20% from 18-29. 45+ will make up 50-55% (or more) of the electorate.

65+ will almost always edge out 18-24 by about 5 points in recent years as a group.

[Seriously?]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Also there will be 2% less whites and 2% more non-whites in the 2016 election compared to 2012. So it maybe even slightly better for Clinton.

I'm not sure if that's true, mainly because the white vote may have been understated by a few percentage points in 2012.

VNS didn't do exit polls in a good number of states, for starters, such as Georgia and Texas.

[Seriously?]

The Voter News Service ceased to exist years before the 2012 election.

Sorry, Edison Research or whomever is doing the polls now.