Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
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  Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
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Author Topic: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll  (Read 5588 times)
Dumbo
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« on: September 06, 2016, 05:17:50 AM »

Now Trump leads 45 - 43 among likely voters

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/

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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 05:22:12 AM »


Looks like the conservatives were right when they said that most of them stay home disappointed because that guy won't abolish everything...But now, nearly 6 million white uneducated males get the chance to vote for their guy!!
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amdcpus
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 05:27:36 AM »

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/

Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
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Wells
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 05:29:05 AM »

So is North Carolina going to be 6 points to the left of the nation?
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 05:30:01 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent
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Wells
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 05:32:07 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 05:33:19 AM »

Congrats Hillary, you can't close the deal with the Donald. Bad!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 05:33:23 AM »

The last 4 CNN polls have been Clinton +7, Trump +3, Clinton +9 and Trump +2.
Is there any other pollster out there that had that kind of wild swinging?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 05:37:32 AM »

The last 4 CNN polls have been Clinton +7, Trump +3, Clinton +9 and Trump +2.
Is there any other pollster out there that had that kind of wild swinging?
(shrug) a lot of that has to do with their frequency, the middle 2 were both post-convention bumps.
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afleitch
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 05:55:06 AM »

It's 44-41-9-3 to Clinton on RV rather than LV. Modelling who's actually going to vote (see Reuters) is causing much of the divergence in national polls.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2016, 05:57:44 AM »

HRC is the worst candidate in modern history? Who in her circle is giving her such bad advice? and the worst part I can't tell if she is concerned at all if people perceive as honest or trustworthy.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 05:59:59 AM »

HRC is the worst candidate in modern history? Who in her circle is giving her such bad advice? and the worst part I can't tell if she is concerned at all if people perceive as honest or trustworthy.

Your pearl-clutching is not warranted.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2016, 06:00:07 AM »

It's 44-41-9-3 to Clinton on RV rather than LV. Modelling who's actually going to vote (see Reuters) is causing much of the divergence in national polls.

That finding sounds reasonable, if slightly tilted R
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2016, 06:01:31 AM »

For some reason this poll doesn't worry me. I think I've just been conditioned to think everything CNN does is for ratings. I mean an 11 point swing is just not believable.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2016, 06:08:08 AM »

Sort of surprised they decided to poll over the holiday weekend. I feel like that could alter some of the results they get, with so many people not at home.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2016, 06:10:47 AM »

It's 44-41-9-3 to Clinton on RV rather than LV. Modelling who's actually going to vote (see Reuters) is causing much of the divergence in national polls.

Wasn't the initial switch to LVs showing Clinton doing better than she was doing with RVs? I remember people making a big deal about it some weeks ago because it was so odd to see.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2016, 06:24:16 AM »

Sort of surprised they decided to poll over the holiday weekend. I feel like that could alter some of the results they get, with so many people not at home.

Probably why the id is so off. Going back to 2012, CNN/ORC polled during labor day weekend and found the race tied then polled a week later and it was +6 Obama. CNN knows what it was doing polling during a holiday.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2016, 06:25:47 AM »

I think we can all at least agree that the race has somewhat tightened over the past couple of weeks.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 06:30:26 AM »

I prefer the 2 way polling because Johnson and Stein aren't on every ballot.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 06:31:00 AM »

Sort of surprised they decided to poll over the holiday weekend. I feel like that could alter some of the results they get, with so many people not at home.

Probably why the id is so off. Going back to 2012, CNN/ORC polled during labor day weekend and found the race tied then polled a week later and it was +6 Obama. CNN knows what it was doing polling during a holiday.

Very interesting...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2016, 06:46:52 AM »

CNN/ORC is sketch. At least this lines up with their Arizona poll a week or so ago.

I prefer the 2 way polling because Johnson and Stein aren't on every ballot.

Johnson will be, Stein will be on the vast majority, so there's no reason to think that two way is any better.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2016, 06:57:34 AM »

Sort of surprised they decided to poll over the holiday weekend. I feel like that could alter some of the results they get, with so many people not at home.

Probably why the id is so off. Going back to 2012, CNN/ORC polled during labor day weekend and found the race tied then polled a week later and it was +6 Obama. CNN knows what it was doing polling during a holiday.

Very interesting...
LOL
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2016, 06:58:17 AM »

Speech + Mexico trip Smiley
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2016, 07:00:17 AM »


Explain this?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2016, 07:00:57 AM »

So they show the same thing they did 4 years ago, let's see who else has it this close to see which of these was the outlier.
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