MT-gov: What's going on here?

[Figueira]

Seriously, I haven't heard anything about this race. I know Bullock is favored but I've seen no polling or anything.

[Ebsy]

The Montana GOP didn't field a serious candidate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Montana GOP didn't field a serious candidate.

But why has literally no one polled the race? Seriously, we haven't had even one poll.

[Cubby]

But why has literally no one polled the race? Seriously, we haven't had even one poll.

It's one of the least populated states in the Union. The smaller they are the less likely they are to be polled, that's always been the case. Since Montana is pretty safe at the presidential level, there's even less reason for them to be polled, giggity. I'm not happy there's no data, just telling you why.

[MT Treasurer]

This week has been pretty terrible for Gianforte. Before that I'd say it was a Tossup/tilt D, but Bullock is definitely favored now. Lean D seems like an appropriate rating at this point. The Montana GOP sucks at winning statewide races.

[President Johnson]

There are no polls at all with the current candidates.

[windjammer]

No one knows lol

[Heisenberg]

This week has been pretty terrible for Gianforte. Before that I'd say it was a Tossup/tilt D, but Bullock is definitely favored now. Lean D seems like an appropriate rating at this point. The Montana GOP sucks at winning statewide races.

I think the Republicans should now focus on picking up the open Secretary of State (Corey Stapleton) and Auditor (Matt Rosendale) seats, and respecting Attorney General Tim Fox, to build up their bench (which barely even exists). Gianforte is not that great a candidate, and has made a few gaffes recently. Ideally, Tim Fox runs for governor in 2020, and Stapleton and Rosendale will be great additions to the bench, maybe one could run for the House seat if vacated by Zinke.

[Xing]

Montana is always ignored/underpolled. The presidential race isn't expected to be competitive, and there's no senate race, so pollsters probably don't want to spend their time and money here. Bullock is almost certainly favored, though.

[Heisenberg]

Montana is always ignored/underpolled. The presidential race isn't expected to be competitive, and there's no senate race, so pollsters probably don't want to spend their time and money here. Bullock is almost certainly favored, though.

I really want to see polls for the SoS, AG, and Auditor races too.

[MT Treasurer]

This week has been pretty terrible for Gianforte. Before that I'd say it was a Tossup/tilt D, but Bullock is definitely favored now. Lean D seems like an appropriate rating at this point. The Montana GOP sucks at winning statewide races.

What happened this week?

It just wasn't a good week for him in general. He said that Indian reservations hinder free markets and went criticizing Bullock’s use of the state owned plane (which he wants to abolish if elected governor), and that really isn't the most important issue for voters. There's no mood for change in the state right now. Also, a former top executive of RightNow Technologies, the Bozeman company founded by Gianforte, endorsed Bullock. So Gianforte's gotten some bad press recently.

For him to win, he basically needs to outperform Rick Hill by 3 or 4 points in Missoula County (which is the Denver County of MT) and Yellowstone County (Billings), win enough Independents in Lewis And Clark and Cascade County (which are bellwether counties), and run up the margins in the rural areas, but so far it looks like it isn't working. He'll win the rural areas with No Indian Reservations by a lot, but he will lose badly among young voters, Native Americans and might even do worse than Hill in Missoula. The only thing that's helping him is that Hillary Clinton is that Democratic nominee, but even that really won't matter that much in the end. The Montana Republican party is just terrible. My guess is that Bullock wins by 5 or so, but it's still possible for Greg Gianforte to win. Lean D for now.

[Figueira]

Montana is always ignored/underpolled. The presidential race isn't expected to be competitive, and there's no senate race, so pollsters probably don't want to spend their time and money here. Bullock is almost certainly favored, though.

I really want to see polls for the SoS, AG, and Auditor races too.

Even a Presidential poll would be cool. I have no idea whether Montana is within reach for Clinton, or if it's trending right this time.

[SATW]

This week has been pretty terrible for Gianforte. Before that I'd say it was a Tossup/tilt D, but Bullock is definitely favored now. Lean D seems like an appropriate rating at this point. The Montana GOP sucks at winning statewide races.

What happened this week?

It just wasn't a good week for him in general. He said that Indian reservations hinder free markets and went criticizing Bullock’s use of the state owned plane (which he wants to abolish if elected governor), and that really isn't the most important issue for voters. There's no mood for change in the state right now. Also, a former top executive of RightNow Technologies, the Bozeman company founded by Gianforte, endorsed Bullock. So Gianforte's gotten some bad press recently.

For him to win, he basically needs to outperform Rick Hill by 3 or 4 points in Missoula County (which is the Denver County of MT) and Yellowstone County (Billings), win enough Independents in Lewis And Clark and Cascade County (which are bellwether counties), and run up the margins in the rural areas, but so far it looks like it isn't working. He'll win the rural areas with No Indian Reservations by a lot, but he will lose badly among young voters, Native Americans and might even do worse than Hill in Missoula. The only thing that's helping him is that Hillary Clinton is that Democratic nominee, but even that really won't matter that much in the end. The Montana Republican party is just terrible. My guess is that Bullock wins by 5 or so, but it's still possible for Greg Gianforte to win. Lean D for now.

Yikes lmao.