New PPP swing state polls (For National Employment Law Project)
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Author Topic: New PPP swing state polls (For National Employment Law Project)  (Read 3685 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 01, 2016, 09:34:13 AM »
« edited: September 01, 2016, 09:39:16 AM by TN volunteer »

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2016, 09:38:07 AM »

What is this group?
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2016, 09:39:22 AM »

Trump's outperforming McCain is pretty hilarious
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2016, 09:41:48 AM »

Seems realistic.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2016, 09:42:29 AM »


Minimum wage advocacy.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2016, 09:43:07 AM »

It looks pretty consistent, considering that those are head-to-head.

Is this a pro-Hillary group?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2016, 09:43:52 AM »

Trump's outperforming McCain is pretty hilarious
Shocked
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swf541
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2016, 09:46:42 AM »

It looks pretty consistent, considering that those are head-to-head.

Is this a pro-Hillary group?

Pro minimum wage increase advocacy group
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2016, 09:49:57 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2016, 09:51:44 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!

You should not be excited about these numbers. This should be the expectation in every poll for Trump. He has mockingly thrown away the opportunity, and this is simply no different than receiving 0%. Both margin of error.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2016, 09:53:27 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!

You should not be excited about these numbers. This should be the expectation in every poll for Trump. He has mockingly thrown away the opportunity, and this is simply no different than receiving 0%. Both margin of error.

MoE for blacks in the NH poll must be huge.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2016, 09:56:09 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2016, 09:58:32 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!

You should not be excited about these numbers. This should be the expectation in every poll for Trump. He has mockingly thrown away the opportunity, and this is simply no different than receiving 0%. Both margin of error.
From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2016, 09:58:45 AM »

Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!

Also known as "Jerry"
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2016, 10:00:45 AM »

Those samples seem a bit too Democratic in a lot of these states. Take MO, for example:

In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
12% Not sure/Someone else

No one likes admitting they voted for the loser.
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swf541
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2016, 10:00:58 AM »

Those samples seem a bit too Democratic in a lot of these states. Take MO, for example:

In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
12% Not sure/Someone else

Romney won MO by 10.

As I said in the other thread, not uncommon,  Many wont say they voted for a losing canidate hence the dont know
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dspNY
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2016, 10:05:40 AM »

They all look about right too
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2016, 10:18:45 AM »

Yup! 538 model has barely moved after PPP's polls. Trump -0.3%
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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2016, 10:21:23 AM »

It looks pretty consistent, considering that those are head-to-head.

Is this a pro-Hillary group?
Yes. Taken with a grain of salt, although they let PPP put out LV instead of RV.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2016, 10:35:53 AM »

Trumps leading amongst Missouri Hispanics beautiful!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2016, 10:37:41 AM »

Yup! 538 model has barely moved after PPP's polls. Trump -0.3%
Clinton bumped up a bit more in the Nowcast. +1.7%
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2016, 10:39:48 AM »

Trumps leading amongst Missouri Hispanics beautiful!

2% of 1055 voters = 21 voters.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2016, 10:41:48 AM »

These numbers seem plausible.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2016, 11:03:42 AM »


Wow Trump has 9% of OH Blacks and 14% of NH Blacks!

When New Hampshire is 1% black, I'd take such numbers with a grain of salt since they probably only polled fewer than 20 blacks, leading to a higher margin of error.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2016, 11:33:28 AM »

good result for hrc considering these are robo polls which tend to underestimate her support
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