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Author Topic: New poll hype thread  (Read 95476 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1000 on: October 30, 2016, 04:04:19 PM »
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 30, 2016, 04:00:28 PM
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on October 30, 2016, 03:56:39 PM
Are they a partisan/new pollster? Can't find them in 538 pollster rating.

afaik that college is doing the polls for them since a few months..

http://www.wm.edu/

I still can't find them in 538 pollster rating.
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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #1001 on: October 30, 2016, 04:11:23 PM »
Trump +2.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1002 on: October 30, 2016, 04:11:38 PM »
They don't have a rating as they're quite new. 538 shifted their late September Ohio poll from C+3 to C+1 and it has a .87 weight (a PPP at the same time was weighted 1.15 for comparison).
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Xing
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« Reply #1003 on: October 30, 2016, 04:12:42 PM »
Trump +11 because muh Trumpmentum...

Just kidding. Clinton +2.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1004 on: October 30, 2016, 04:23:50 PM »
Quote from: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 04:11:38 PM
They don't have a rating as they're quite new. 538 shifted their late September Ohio poll from C+3 to C+1 and it has a .87 weight (a PPP at the same time was weighted 1.15 for comparison).

Thanks. Their name did sound familiar, but I couldn't find them.


Clinton +1
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1005 on: October 30, 2016, 04:29:24 PM »
FL - T + 3
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #1006 on: October 30, 2016, 05:01:54 PM »
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792845629848363008

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Seems like Public Policy Polling is noticing a tightening, but nothing severe yet.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1007 on: October 30, 2016, 05:07:16 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 05:10:29 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »
Quote from: HillOfANight on October 30, 2016, 05:01:54 PM
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792845629848363008

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Seems like Public Policy Polling is noticing a tightening, but nothing severe yet.

Good. Since they seems to do a lot of polling, there is definitely a [non-dramatic] shift. But since the story is still alive (wheather it is about Clinton or Comey is less important IMHO — as long as it about emails), the shift might grow.

Haha https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792846457120366592
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1008 on: October 30, 2016, 05:11:53 PM »
Quote from: HillOfANight on October 30, 2016, 05:01:54 PM
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792845629848363008

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Seems like Public Policy Polling is noticing a tightening, but nothing severe yet.

I think "no movement" is an equally plausible interpretation.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1009 on: October 30, 2016, 05:13:01 PM »
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on October 30, 2016, 05:07:16 PM
Quote from: HillOfANight on October 30, 2016, 05:01:54 PM
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792845629848363008

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Seems like Public Policy Polling is noticing a tightening, but nothing severe yet.

Good. Since they seems to do a lot of polling, there is definitely a [non-dramatic] shift. But since the story is still alive (wheather it is about Clinton or Comey is less important IMHO — as long as it about emails), the shift might grow.

Haha https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792846457120366592


I strongly doubt we'll see big shifts at all. The electorate is increasingly baked in.

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2016, 05:11:53 PM

I think "no movement" is an equally plausible interpretation.

Yeah, I read it that way too.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1010 on: October 30, 2016, 05:14:01 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 05:13:01 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2016, 05:11:53 PM

I think "no movement" is an equally plausible interpretation.

Yeah, I read it that way too.

Same and the few other people that have chimed in so far are implying or saying the same thing at this point.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1011 on: October 30, 2016, 08:28:06 PM »



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https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/792889353563496448
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1012 on: October 30, 2016, 08:35:00 PM »
Trump +2.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1013 on: October 30, 2016, 08:40:38 PM »
Total Tie, would be my guess.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1014 on: October 30, 2016, 08:44:57 PM »
Last Morning Consult I can find is Oct 21st with Clinton +6 in 2- and 4-way.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1015 on: October 30, 2016, 08:46:27 PM »
C+4
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1016 on: October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM »

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1017 on: October 30, 2016, 08:52:01 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM
The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

they say it's post-comey (but ofc before the dem counter-attack) so it could be like post-access hollywood....short moment of shock and unwilligness to identify.

could easily bounce back until next week.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1018 on: October 30, 2016, 08:53:22 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

Especially this late in the election season, and with this so quickly just falling into partisan talking points, I'm not sure there's even 6 points left to swing. Let alone for this thing.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1019 on: October 30, 2016, 08:54:16 PM »
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 30, 2016, 08:52:01 PM
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM
The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

they say it's post-comey (but ofc before the dem counter-attack) so it could be like post-access hollywood....short moment of shock and unwilligness to identify.

could easily bounce back until next week.

Yes... even with Comey, I don't see a slide of that magnitude, let alone similar to scale of Pussygate.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1020 on: October 30, 2016, 08:55:53 PM »

Clinton +3
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1021 on: October 30, 2016, 08:59:36 PM »
Given Morning Consult is the firm that literally never budges I'm going to say they show Clinton +5~ like always.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1022 on: October 30, 2016, 09:02:11 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

So is an 11 point slide for literally no reason, but that didn't stop the Washington Post...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1023 on: October 30, 2016, 09:10:48 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 09:13:11 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 30, 2016, 09:02:11 PM
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 08:47:26 PM

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

So is an 11 point slide for literally no reason, but that didn't stop the Washington Post...

There were methodological reasons for this too... so people just really need to calm the eff down. She was not up 12% and she's not up 1%. So chill.

Lest we also forget that MC can be extremely bouncy.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #1024 on: October 30, 2016, 09:16:21 PM »
Hmm, MC swing only 2 points in Hillary's direction between post VP debate poll and post pussy tape poll.
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