I just cannot fathom an Obama 12/trump 16 voter. (and they exist)

[Matty]

They exist in Nevada and in Iowa and probably some in maine and oregon as well.

Who in the world are these folks, and how do they not realize how ideologically different their voting habits are every 4 years?

[IceSpear]

Many people don't vote based off ideology. Is it really hard to picture a sexist white man?

[Indy Texas]

Maybe their logic went something like this:

Voted for Obama instead of Romney in 2012 because Romney was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Obama.

Voted for Trump instead of Clinton in 2016 because Clinton was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Trump.

[IceSpear]

Maybe their logic went something like this:

Voted for Obama instead of Romney in 2012 because Romney was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Obama.

Voted for Trump instead of Clinton in 2016 because Clinton was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Trump.

Then wouldn't that mean they voted McCain in 2008? Wall Street heavily supported Obama in 2008 since he was seen as the shoo in winner.

[Adam Griffin]

There are some people who simply vote for the candidate in each election who commands the most "celebrity" appeal, who makes the most headlines and who seems to be the more relatable of the two. The GOP (correctly) griped and whined in 2008 about these low-information voters, calling Obama a "celebrity" candidate. These are your Obama-Trump voters.

[Ebowed]

Corruption perceptions is the big difference I think.  They probably don't like Hillary because they think she's corrupt.  How they go from that to justifying voting for Trump, I've got no clue.

Voting for Trump because of ethics in politics is sort of like voting for Trump because you're worried about working class interests.  It makes no sense, but he's managed to scam people into thinking otherwise.  Depressing stuff.  Trump University is having its greatest recruitment year on record.

[Torie]

Voters who are hard core protectionists might do this.

[IceSpear]

There are some people who simply vote for the candidate in each election who commands the most "celebrity" appeal, who makes the most headlines and who seems to be the more relatable of the two. The GOP (correctly) griped and whined in 2008 about these low-information voters, calling Obama a "celebrity" candidate. These are your Obama-Trump voters.

The GOP has sure come a long way since the Paris Hilton ad, haven't they?

https://youtu.be/oHXYsw_ZDXg

[Xing]

I don't think they exist in very high numbers in Nevada, Oregon, or Maine. Iowa does seem to be a state where Hillary could underperform Obama. The main reasons an Obama voter would vote for Trump would be that they want the "anti-establishment" or "more exciting" candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Voters who are hard core protectionists might do this.

I'm a Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama voter who would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

And, yes, Free Trade is a big issue with me.

[Bismarck]

Some people vote on charisma, and certainly Obama and Trump would be the choice if that was all you voted on. Actually, it's not hard to imagine working class white voters who felt Obama cared about their plight more than Romney but perceive Trump does more than Clinton. People forget that in northern states a large chunk of the much maligned working class white vote went for Obama in 2012 in northern states.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe their logic went something like this:

Voted for Obama instead of Romney in 2012 because Romney was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Obama.

Voted for Trump instead of Clinton in 2016 because Clinton was too close to Wall Street/Big Business relative to Trump.

Maybe their logic went something like this:

Then wouldn't that mean they voted McCain in 2008? Wall Street heavily supported Obama in 2008 since he was seen as the shoo in winner.

Voters who are hard core protectionists might do this.

I'm a Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama voter who would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

And, yes, Free Trade is a big issue with me.

I think that most of your various comments are fair and accurate to some extent in explaining this phenomenon.

Indy Texas succinctly summarizes what I see as the fundamental logic behind that type of decision making for these voters.

Icespear raises a valid question, however for many of the Obama '08/ Trump '16 voters, they perceived Obama (and the Democrats) better able to undertake fundamental financial reforms to prevent another repeat of the Great Recession. Additionally, for many of these voters McCain's position of "doubling down" in Iraq was a non-starter, after arguably the biggest US Foreign Policy blunder in decades (Invasion and occupation of Iraq). Many Trump supporters have a relatively isolationist foreign policy attitude, and aren't crazy about starting elective wars overseas for no reason.

Torie raises the economic protectionist angle, which absolutely does fit to the extent that during the '08 Dem primaries, Hillary was weighed down with free trade policies that Bill Clinton signed into law in the '90s, whereas Obama was a bit more of an unknown.

To bring in an anecdotal story (sigh--- yes I know), I was having a conversation with one of my best friends of many years about the election last night for some time.

He was a Nader-Kerry-Obama-Obama voter who is currently leaning towards Trump.

I was quite surprised, considering he is completely disgusted with the bigoted comments that Trump makes, supports ACA as well as many of the signature accomplishments of the Obama administration, and is extremely concerned about some of the foreign policy statements that Trump has made...

Meanwhile his wife, who has been a Republican for many years is planning to vote Libertarian because she despises Trump and views Clinton as untrustworthy...

So far, he is the only person that I know who is an Obama and possible Trump voter, so an extremely small sample size with huge MOE.

[NOVA Green]

They exist in Nevada and in Iowa and probably some in maine and oregon as well.

Who in the world are these folks, and how do they not realize how ideologically different their voting habits are every 4 years?

I commented below on a few of my thoughts, but I did want to note that this is an interesting mix of states that share significant similarities and differences.

One item in common with these states, is that many voters register as independent and then switch over for the primaries/caucuses to support the candidate of their choice from either of the two major political parties.

Secondarily, the topic that has been discussed ad naseum is the correlation between relative education levels of white voters and support for Trump. There are significant manufacturing jobs in 3/4 states listed above, with Nevada being the major exception.

Tertiary, three of these four states tend to have a high proportion of 3rd party voting and "protest voting" compared to much of the rest of the country.

Of the four states listed, arguably Oregon is the biggest beneficiary of "Free Trade" as a result of its Pacific location and a large tech industry, as well as international exports of grain, timber, and manufactured goods. However, free trade has long been controversial in Oregon going back to the collapse of the Timber industry in Oregon in the 1980s, when forests were being clearcut like crazy by Junk Bond kings. while timber was being sent to Asia to be processed overseas, instead of going to (frequently family-owned) small timber mills throughout Oregon. Also, the tech sector has cut back significantly with Hewlett-Packard and Intel shifting high-paying manufacturing and Cleanroom/Fab jobs overseas to take advantage of corporate tax loopholes. Not so familar with IA and ME, but fairly sure much of manufacturing workforce in those two states used to be heavily unionized, and likely there have been significant union concessions since the '80s in order to keep jobs from moving to the non-union South.

[Badger]

ask Fuzzy Bear. He's one IIRC.

[Ogre Mage]

They certainly make far less sense than Romney '12/Clinton '16 voters, who I believe are a considerably larger group.

[ElectionsGuy]

Think of it this way maybe. Imagine someone who's family was straight ticket Democrat and heavily identified with Democrats their whole life. They're big on protecting the little guy and support economic government programs to do so.  Much of this demographic is going to disproportionately rural, blue collar, and with lower levels of education. Maybe they're not happy with voting for Obama but because Romney is a shill for big business (as many people thought) he's not looking at protecting someone like me, nor does he speak in a direct easy way, he's just another standard politician who will do the same standard politician thing, and he'll give his rich buddies a break while not giving a sh**t about anybody else. That's the line of thinking anyway. So they vote Obama, even though they would probably skew socially conservative and authoritarian. But then Trump runs, and the rest can be filled in from here. Everything that was wrong with Romney isn't wrong with Trump. Someone that speaks to them directly and connects with them, someone who isn't bought and paid for, etc. A lot of that in fact can be turned around on Clinton so easily.

These voters are going to be your anti-establishment moderate voters, not the bigots or the people super enthusiastic about banning all Muslims or deporting all illegal immigrants.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah, I know an Obama 2008/2012 -> Trump 2016 voter, he gave his reasons as he voted for Obama over Romney because Romney was too close to Big Business and he saw him as very corrupt, he voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 primaries and Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries because he saw Hillary Clinton as corrupt and too close to Wall Street and believes Trump will halt their influence in government, albeit he complains about Trump's attitudes towards minority communities.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Because the Clinton's destroyed America in the 90s in an unforgivable way, they will never receive my vote. Trump will make the system fair for all the disadvantaged

[NOVA Green]

They certainly make far less sense than Romney '12/Clinton '16 voters, who I believe are a considerably larger group.

Objectively this is a 100% accurate statement of reality.

[NOVA Green]

Think of it this way maybe. Imagine someone who's family was straight ticket Democrat and heavily identified with Democrats their whole life. They're big on protecting the little guy and support economic government programs to do so.  Much of this demographic is going to disproportionately rural, blue collar, and with lower levels of education. Maybe they're not happy with voting for Obama but because Romney is a shill for big business (as many people thought) he's not looking at protecting someone like me, nor does he speak in a direct easy way, he's just another standard politician who will do the same standard politician thing, and he'll give his rich buddies a break while not giving a sh**t about anybody else. That's the line of thinking anyway. So they vote Obama, even though they would probably skew socially conservative and authoritarian. But then Trump runs, and the rest can be filled in from here. Everything that was wrong with Romney isn't wrong with Trump. Someone that speaks to them directly and connects with them, someone who isn't bought and paid for, etc. A lot of that in fact can be turned around on Clinton so easily.

These voters are going to be your anti-establishment moderate voters, not the bigots or the people super enthusiastic about banning all Muslims or deporting all illegal immigrants.

I agree with most of your statements overall, and it actually represents the perspectives of some of the "reluctant Trump" Republican voters from Democratic Party backgrounds....

I disagree with the "socially conservative" angle, at least based upon the Trump supporters that I know, but hell there aren't a ton of those folks in Oregon, so doesn't represent other parts of the country....

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

They exist in Nevada and in Iowa and probably some in maine and oregon as well.

Who in the world are these folks, and how do they not realize how ideologically different their voting habits are every 4 years?

As others said, they're moderately anti-establishment (and IMHO, not high-information voters).

Thinking of Obama/Trump voter in 2012: things still need to change, we don't need rich capitalist assholes in charge, and I believe Obama will be better for the "guy/gal on the street" than arch-capitalist Mitt Romney.

Thinking of Obama/Trump voter in 2016: things really need to change, Hillary is way too establishment and I believe Trump will be better for the "guy/gal on the street" than 'friend to the 1%' Hillary Clinton.

All it takes is dislike of the 1% and a mix of faith and gullibility. Faith that voting does matter and that the person they're voting for isn't a complete liar, and gullibility to believe their candidate's spiel (and convince themselves that they're right this time).

[NOVA Green]

Think of it this way maybe. Imagine someone who's family was straight ticket Democrat and heavily identified with Democrats their whole life. They're big on protecting the little guy and support economic government programs to do so.  Much of this demographic is going to disproportionately rural, blue collar, and with lower levels of education. Maybe they're not happy with voting for Obama but because Romney is a shill for big business (as many people thought) he's not looking at protecting someone like me, nor does he speak in a direct easy way, he's just another standard politician who will do the same standard politician thing, and he'll give his rich buddies a break while not giving a sh**t about anybody else. That's the line of thinking anyway. So they vote Obama, even though they would probably skew socially conservative and authoritarian. But then Trump runs, and the rest can be filled in from here. Everything that was wrong with Romney isn't wrong with Trump. Someone that speaks to them directly and connects with them, someone who isn't bought and paid for, etc. A lot of that in fact can be turned around on Clinton so easily.

These voters are going to be your anti-establishment moderate voters, not the bigots or the people super enthusiastic about banning all Muslims or deporting all illegal immigrants.

Bolded final paragraph.

I believe that certain counties in Oregon were the tip of the iceberg back in 2000+ elections....

Coos County Oregon being a prime example of an overwhelmingly New Deal Democratic county for decades that moved away from the Party because of outmigration of youth and the politics of timber in Southern Oregon.

Douglas County Oregon (47% Dukakis '88) is another example of a heavily rural and small-town Oregon County that tilted heavily Republican in the '90s because of the politics of timber, and is now one of the most heavily populated Republican counties in the state.

At some point, many rural, small-town and working class Oregonians downstate abandoned the Democratic Party heavily because of the Neo-Corporatist politics of Bill Clinton and the "upstate-downstate" dynamics and felt that the state and national party was more interested in representing urban and suburban voters than the communities most impacted by these economic changes.

When you have a situation where rural and working-class mill workers in heavily Democratic precincts abandon the party within a decade or so, it makes one wonder if the "New Democratic Party" is really the party of the workers, or a party of corporate interests and "screwing the people over"...

Trump is an insensitive individual who has harnessed the forces of older White working-class Male resentment and used racist dog whistles to a degree not seen for decades (George Wallace???) but the reality is that as you surmised, there are many decent individuals somehow buy the BS that he is better on "jobs and the economy" and are essentially supporting Trump as a protest vote, and also a giant middle finger to the Republican Party that caused the economic collapse, war in Iraq, and are mainly disgruntled and frustrated that change and economic improvement has not happened fast enough under Obama.

[Anna Komnene]

Trump might have terrible organization, but he certainly knows how to sell a product.  He's somehow convinced people that even though he is a wealthy businessman who owns property on wall street, unlike Willard Mitt, that doesn't mean he's entrenched in big business and wall street interests.  It means he has the necessary perspective and experience to take on these interests from the outside.  His real heart lies with the plight of the common working man, and he might buy a farm in Iowa or something.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Think of it this way maybe. Imagine someone who's family was straight ticket Democrat and heavily identified with Democrats their whole life. They're big on protecting the little guy and support economic government programs to do so.  Much of this demographic is going to disproportionately rural, blue collar, and with lower levels of education. Maybe they're not happy with voting for Obama but because Romney is a shill for big business (as many people thought) he's not looking at protecting someone like me, nor does he speak in a direct easy way, he's just another standard politician who will do the same standard politician thing, and he'll give his rich buddies a break while not giving a sh**t about anybody else. That's the line of thinking anyway. So they vote Obama, even though they would probably skew socially conservative and authoritarian. But then Trump runs, and the rest can be filled in from here. Everything that was wrong with Romney isn't wrong with Trump. Someone that speaks to them directly and connects with them, someone who isn't bought and paid for, etc. A lot of that in fact can be turned around on Clinton so easily.

These voters are going to be your anti-establishment moderate voters, not the bigots or the people super enthusiastic about banning all Muslims or deporting all illegal immigrants.

This is a good description of me.

I have been a registered Republican since 1995, but I'm very much a RINO.  I fit the mold of a moderate Democrat more than a conservative Republican. 

People have an amazing amount of trouble believing that such people exist, but they do.  Trump is, politically, a rather moderate Republican, at least in issue positions he takes.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

You'd probably find a non-negligible number among the 18,000 steelworkers here in Northwest Indiana.


Since this was Indiana's first competitive GOP primary since 1976, turnout surged in the GOP primary and fell somewhat in the Democratic primary (partial contributer Hillary's mediocre performance in Lake County), and this region also gave a strong showing the George Wallace in 1968 (read up on the racial & political history of Gary and its suburbs) and Ross Perot in 1992.