MI-Suffolk: Clinton +7
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  MI-Suffolk: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: MI-Suffolk: Clinton +7  (Read 2805 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 25, 2016, 11:02:28 AM »

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/768839154163646465

Clinton: 44%
Trump: 37%
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 3%
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2016, 11:07:14 AM »

That's closer than I thought wow.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2016, 11:08:22 AM »

A bit closer than ideal, but still consistent with Michigan being Likely D.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2016, 11:13:37 AM »

I'm not sure why Trump wastes his time with VA, he should be putting that money and effort here.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2016, 11:14:56 AM »

Look at all the people trusting the polling in Michigan again... yeesh, some of you never learn.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2016, 11:15:06 AM »

Look at all the people trusting the polling in Michigan again... yeesh, some of you never learn.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2016, 11:22:04 AM »

If this is a good result for Trump, that says a lot.
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Redban
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« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2016, 11:22:15 AM »

This election may be the last time a GOP candidate prioritizes Virginia over the Midwest states. Trump's successors should definitely put Michigan over Virginia.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2016, 11:29:37 AM »

Trump hasn't been at 40% in a single poll taken in Michigan (39% was his high mark in CBS/YouGov and Ipsos' results aren't really polls). Still likely D
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2016, 11:30:53 AM »

If this is a good result for Trump, that says a lot.

Lol yup!
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jamestroll
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2016, 11:32:50 AM »

Thing is... Michigan is sort of the inverse of Kentucky. Republicans tend to overpoll in Michigan. I remember the Mormons in Utah being hoping that Romney could upset in Michigan in 2012 because some polls show it competitive and Romney's father was governor.

Did not happen.

Republicans are not shut out of state politics in Michigan, but Presidentially, there is virtually no path for the GOP to win Michigan in any election where the Democrats have a shot to win.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2016, 11:34:48 AM »

It is also consistent with Iowa being a tossup. Outside of Greater Detroit and Flint-Saginaw, Michigan is a fair analogue for Iowa.

Perhaps the Presidential race is tightening some. Maybe Donald Trump isn't making as many egregious statements.  Yes, Michigan has lots of pollsters who poll only Michigan -- but Suffolk has been polling other states and I see few complaints about its polls elsewhere.

This seems to be an adequate pollster and I have no cause to doubt its fairness. Accepted.

What recently looked like a runaway for Hillary Clinton is no longer so, as nationwide tracking polls now show.    

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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2016, 02:16:13 PM »

"It is also consistent with Iowa being a tossup. Outside of Greater Detroit and Flint-Saginaw, Michigan is a fair analogue for Iowa."

That is sort of like say, that outside the NYC metro orbit, NY is an analogue to Ohio.  Heck, Rochester has a very Midwestern feel to me.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2016, 02:39:54 PM »

I'm not sure why Trump wastes his time with VA, he should be putting that money and effort here.

He can put his money in PA and VA and MI and WI but he won't win any of them.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2016, 02:40:52 PM »

Yeah, this is about right. Trump is behind but it's not over.
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windjammer
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« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2016, 02:41:46 PM »

Every 2 years:
"Wow, the polls are showing Michigan competitive"
Election Night "No, that wasn't."
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2016, 03:34:12 PM »

Seems reasonable. Third party numbers are closer to what I expect they'll be in the end too.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2016, 03:45:18 PM »

Every 2 years:
"Wow, the polls are showing Michigan competitive"
Election Night "No, that wasn't."
^^^^^^^^^^^^
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2016, 05:33:22 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2016, 05:37:02 PM by Fubart Solman »

Look at all the people trusting the polling in Michigan again... yeesh, some of you never learn.

What was the issue with the polling on the Dem primary? I remember it was way off. Can pollsters not call cell phones there or something?

Edit: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2016, 06:00:13 PM »

It is the first poll from Michigan in a few weeks, from a B+ pollster, and overall sounds about right, although the proportion of younger voters and gun owners (45%) sounds a little high for Michigan, so potentially overstates both 3rd party support and Trump support around the margins.

Michigan ranges from 29-38% in gun ownership (Well behind Minnesota and Wisconsin).

My guess is that Trump is consolidating some Republican support in SW Michigan, where he was significantly under-performing typical levels of Republican support, but is still running into the wall in Oakland and Macomb county, where he really needs to expand to make the state competitive in November.

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2016, 06:17:35 PM »

Michigan will be a double digit Clinton win on Election Day. Trump has no path here with his awful numbers with Blacks and Hispanics.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2016, 06:26:34 PM »

It is the first poll from Michigan in a few weeks, from a B+ pollster, and overall sounds about right, although the proportion of younger voters and gun owners (45%) sounds a little high for Michigan, so potentially overstates both 3rd party support and Trump support around the margins.

Michigan ranges from 29-38% in gun ownership (Well behind Minnesota and Wisconsin).
It is a LV poll.

The asked:
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2016, 07:25:00 PM »

It is the first poll from Michigan in a few weeks, from a B+ pollster, and overall sounds about right, although the proportion of younger voters and gun owners (45%) sounds a little high for Michigan, so potentially overstates both 3rd party support and Trump support around the margins.

Michigan ranges from 29-38% in gun ownership (Well behind Minnesota and Wisconsin).
It is a LV poll.

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Nice catch... makes more sense now.

Regardless, Michigan is actually in the bottom 50 Percentile in terms of gun ownership nationally, and there is a significant "gender household gun gap in the state"

"Gender and guns
Among men, Trump led 43 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton led 54 percent to 32 percent among women. However, there was a marked difference depending on whether or not men or women live in gun-owning households. Trump’s lead widened (48 percent to 26 percent) among men in gun-owner households, yet he trailed with 37 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent among men in non-gun-owner households. Clinton’s lead among women in non-gun-owner households was 62 percent to 24 percent, but the race was virtually even among women in gun-owner households, with Clinton leading 43 percent to 42 percent."

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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: August 25, 2016, 07:29:56 PM »

Trump's only at 37% of the vote? oh carry on then.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2016, 08:04:25 PM »

Trump's only at 37% of the vote? oh carry on then.

What about them "young uns' "?
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