Timmy's States
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April 29, 2024, 08:59:38 PM
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #225 on: April 13, 2024, 08:52:33 PM »
« edited: April 13, 2024, 08:58:50 PM by President Punxsutawney Phil »

Dems would dominate Carolina's state government (basically imagine NC except it's persistently D+5 margin-wise). Florence County is R leaning but has multiple Dem voting rural counties neighboring it. Especially given trends in rural areas (which could make 2022 bad) it makes sense Ds would pair Florence with the county which gave Biden a 5k vote margin instead of one which gave him a 3k margin.
Even in this configuration the Florence SD went to Biden by barely 4 points, at most. Since the Senate is less D than the House it makes sense they would seek to ensure they had the lines they needed there.
You did catch an inadvertent error made in that region, as Horry's cluster is at 445k (20k below quota). I will have to rework things further. It's possible that Dillon is severed from Horry as Horry reaches into OTL NC to reach quota. We'll see.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #226 on: April 13, 2024, 09:13:36 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2024, 09:20:26 PM by President Punxsutawney Phil »

Update: the issue within the Senate clusters was so easily solved I'm not even posting an updated map.
Changes:
Bladen moves from New Hanover cluster to Robeson cluster
Dillon moves from Horry cluster to Robeson cluster
Columbus moves from Robeson cluster to Horry cluster
As for Dillon being with Horry, I must gravely apologize for having mistook Marion for Dillon for some godforsaken reason. I could see if Dillon could go with Robeson on the House cluster but that's about it. NC clusters privilege the creation of single seat clusters...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #227 on: April 13, 2024, 09:32:30 PM »

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (8)
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (8)
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.
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« Reply #228 on: April 13, 2024, 10:25:28 PM »

The thing to remember about the county clusters rule is that it was handed down by a Republican Court to strike down a Democratic map and crafted to try to simultaneously prevent Democrats from gerrymandering without preventing Republicans from gerrymandering at any point where they may gain control down the line. If Dems had full control of state government, hard to see it holding.
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leecannon
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« Reply #229 on: April 13, 2024, 10:54:46 PM »

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (Cool
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (Cool
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #230 on: April 13, 2024, 11:03:01 PM »

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (Cool
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (Cool
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense
Oh ok. Understandable.
Would you like me to make the Dillon County state representative the State House Speaker?
(Thanks for helping me inadvertantly discover a mistake in my work anyway)
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #231 on: April 13, 2024, 11:13:20 PM »

Any convenient way to calculate area for these states?
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leecannon
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« Reply #232 on: April 13, 2024, 11:34:46 PM »

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (Cool
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (Cool
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense
Oh ok. Understandable.
Would you like me to make the Dillon County state representative the State House Speaker?
(Thanks for helping me inadvertantly discover a mistake in my work anyway)

Sure why not Purple heart
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leecannon
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« Reply #233 on: April 13, 2024, 11:37:20 PM »

Any convenient way to calculate area for these states?

Off the top of my head you could but the counties in an excel sheet, have it convert to geography, have it add area, then set up auto sum for the areas, but that would get tedious for the midwest states
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #234 on: April 13, 2024, 11:46:45 PM »

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (Cool
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (Cool
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense
Oh ok. Understandable.
Would you like me to make the Dillon County state representative the State House Speaker?
(Thanks for helping me inadvertantly discover a mistake in my work anyway)

Sure why not Purple heart
Consider it done.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #235 on: April 14, 2024, 01:08:35 AM »


(leecannon)

State of Carolina
Population: 7,093,649 (2010), 7,822,818 (2020)
Capital: Fayetteville
Largest city: Raleigh
Largest county or equivalent: Wake
Largest metropolitan area: Raleigh
Other major cities: Wilmington, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, Greenville
Subdivisions: 75 counties
Governor: Roy Cooper (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Yvonne Lewis Holley (D)
State House: 122 members; 74 Democrats, 48 Republicans
State House Speaker: Jackie Hayes (D)
State Senate: 48 members; 27 Democrats, 21 Republicans
State Senate President: Vincent Sheheen (D)
Senators: Jeff Jackson (D), Jaime Harrison (D)
US House: 7 Democrats, 3 Republicans
Electoral votes: 12
2020 presidential election winner: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr (D)
Total area: 51,013.89 square miles, same size as Nicaragua
Land area: 44,748.78 square miles (87.72%)
Population density: 170.99 per square mile (total), 194.93 per square mile (land)
Amount of pride in the local barbeque: 1,971%
Region: Southern
Time Zone: UTC 05:00 (Eastern)
Summer (DST) UTC 04:00
USPS abbreviation CL
ISO 3166 code US-CL
Demonym: Carolinian
State song: "Carolina"
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #236 on: April 14, 2024, 02:39:02 PM »

I wonder what I should do next...
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #237 on: April 15, 2024, 06:10:46 PM »

State of Carolina
Capital: Fayetteville
Largest city: Raleigh
Other major cities: Wilmington, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, Greenville
Senators: Jeff Jackson (D)
Quote
Taking Jackson out of Charlotte
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #238 on: April 15, 2024, 06:21:39 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2024, 06:24:46 PM by President Punxsutawney Phil »

State of Carolina
Capital: Fayetteville
Largest city: Raleigh
Other major cities: Wilmington, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, Greenville
Senators: Jeff Jackson (D)
Quote
Taking Jackson out of Charlotte

He was raised in Chapel Hill. I figure he might sooner run for office there than in Cherokee, especially if they're in different states. (He would probably practice law in Raleigh instead)
Similar reason I made Roy Cooper governor: he was from Nash County.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #239 on: April 15, 2024, 06:29:07 PM »

He was raised in Chapel Hill. I figure he might sooner run for office there than in Cherokee, especially if they're in different states. (He would probably practice law in Raleigh instead)
Similar reason I made Roy Cooper governor: he was from Nash County.
I mean, I get it, but still, do you know how much I sacrificed‽
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leecannon
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« Reply #240 on: April 15, 2024, 06:31:48 PM »

He was raised in Chapel Hill. I figure he might sooner run for office there than in Cherokee, especially if they're in different states. (He would probably practice law in Raleigh instead)
Similar reason I made Roy Cooper governor: he was from Nash County.
I mean, I get it, but still, do you know how much I sacrificed‽

Just move to Carolina Tongue
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #241 on: April 15, 2024, 06:32:56 PM »

He was raised in Chapel Hill. I figure he might sooner run for office there than in Cherokee, especially if they're in different states. (He would probably practice law in Raleigh instead)
Similar reason I made Roy Cooper governor: he was from Nash County.
I mean, I get it, but still, do you know how much I sacrificed‽

Just move to Carolina Tongue
Easier said than done. Tongue
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #242 on: April 15, 2024, 08:36:33 PM »


(leecannon)

State of Carolina
Population: 7,093,649 (2010), 7,822,818 (2020)
Capital: Fayetteville
Largest city: Raleigh
Largest county or equivalent: Wake
Largest metropolitan area: Raleigh
Other major cities: Wilmington, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, Greenville
Subdivisions: 75 counties
Governor: Roy Cooper (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Yvonne Lewis Holley (D)
State House: 122 members; 74 Democrats, 48 Republicans
State House Speaker: Jackie Hayes (D)
State Senate: 48 members; 27 Democrats, 21 Republicans
State Senate President: Vincent Sheheen (D)
Senators: Jeff Jackson (D), Jaime Harrison (D)
US House: 7 Democrats, 3 Republicans
Electoral votes: 12
2020 presidential election winner: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr (D)
Total area: 51,013.89 square miles, same size as Nicaragua
Land area: 44,748.78 square miles (87.72%)
Population density: 170.99 per square mile (total), 194.93 per square mile (land)
Amount of pride in the local barbeque: 1,971%
Region: Southern
Time Zone: UTC 05:00 (Eastern)
Summer (DST) UTC 04:00
USPS abbreviation CL
ISO 3166 code US-CL
Demonym: Carolinian
State song: "Carolina"

How did Biden win if Trump won both of these states?
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #243 on: April 15, 2024, 08:39:00 PM »

You should do one on if Virginia and West Virginia reunited.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #244 on: April 15, 2024, 08:49:15 PM »

How did Biden win if Trump won both of these states?

It's not a combination of the OTL states. Read the thread; there's context.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #245 on: April 15, 2024, 09:18:47 PM »


(leecannon)

State of Carolina
Population: 7,093,649 (2010), 7,822,818 (2020)
Capital: Fayetteville
Largest city: Raleigh
Largest county or equivalent: Wake
Largest metropolitan area: Raleigh
Other major cities: Wilmington, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, Greenville
Subdivisions: 75 counties
Governor: Roy Cooper (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Yvonne Lewis Holley (D)
State House: 122 members; 74 Democrats, 48 Republicans
State House Speaker: Jackie Hayes (D)
State Senate: 48 members; 27 Democrats, 21 Republicans
State Senate President: Vincent Sheheen (D)
Senators: Jeff Jackson (D), Jaime Harrison (D)
US House: 7 Democrats, 3 Republicans
Electoral votes: 12
2020 presidential election winner: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr (D)
Total area: 51,013.89 square miles, same size as Nicaragua
Land area: 44,748.78 square miles (87.72%)
Population density: 170.99 per square mile (total), 194.93 per square mile (land)
Amount of pride in the local barbeque: 1,971%
Region: Southern
Time Zone: UTC 05:00 (Eastern)
Summer (DST) UTC 04:00
USPS abbreviation CL
ISO 3166 code US-CL
Demonym: Carolinian
State song: "Carolina"

How did Biden win if Trump won both of these states?

There are three components, roughly described anyhow, to Carolina:
NC minus Western NC and some counties bordering VA. This is Dem leaning.
SC's eastern half in population. This is also Dem leaning or at least about 50/50.
8 counties in GA centered on Savannah. This leans R probably, but not remotely enough to outweigh the D lean of the other two.
Carolina itself voted 52.39% Biden in the two party vote, with a raw vote margin almost at 200k.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #246 on: April 15, 2024, 11:29:02 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2024, 11:37:40 PM by President Punxsutawney Phil »

Two-party vote in Chattahoochee:
47.4% Kerry 04
55% Obama 08
54.4% Obama 12
57.6% Clinton 16
60.9% Biden 20

One of the most sustained and powerful Dem trends in the country. Of course, its territory is the best explanation. Southern Atlanta metro is very Dem trending and Atlanta and Gwinnett have also moved significantly towards Ds over the past decade or so. And only 1/4 of the state by 2020 is entirely outside of the Atlanta metro. Any rural R trend would easily be drowned out.
Chattahoochee Rs would likely fail to have anything in the way of a good bench owing to them being deeply in the minority. Unlike Carolina Rs they have no real bright spots and no true prospects for even holding Ds to a stalemate.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #247 on: April 16, 2024, 03:02:31 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2024, 03:15:58 AM by President Punxsutawney Phil »

Chattahoochee's legislature would be absolutely dominated by the Democratic party, due to gerrymandering, efficient vote distribution, and favorable trends being used by Dems to effectively monopolize Metro Atlanta.
Most likely Rs would have succeeded in holding it and the overall state government until 2018, but would have crumbled as rapidly as Arkansas Democrats did IOTL.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #248 on: April 16, 2024, 02:38:55 PM »

Future state profiles will feature racial demography data, and Carolina's will also be retroactively edited as well to include it.
God bless the mighty spreadsheet.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #249 on: April 16, 2024, 08:59:58 PM »

It's a bit surprising that Trump only won Texas by 2%.
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