Timmy's States

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This thread might seem dead, but don't worry, important stuff is being done behind the scenes.

This is as true as ever.

Good. I'm still really interested in this.

[wjx987]

Am I right that Carolina would be a Democratic state?

[Goldwater]

This thread might seem dead, but don't worry, important stuff is being done behind the scenes.

This is as true as ever.

Good. I'm still really interested in this.

As am I.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread might seem dead, but don't worry, important stuff is being done behind the scenes.

This is as true as ever.

Good. I'm still really interested in this.

As am I.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Am I right that Carolina would be a Democratic state?

Carolina is slightly D-leaning. D+0.74 by 2012 results I think.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Delmarva would be the closest state in numerical terms in 2016. A few thousand votes or so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's back!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: if my EV totals are correct the 2016 election would have been 282 Clinton-256 Trump.

[LLR]

What are the states with the highest margins in 2012 and 2016 for each party? What were the bellwethers/tipping points? The closest state in 2012?

Looks great, by the way, Tim. Happy to see you're still working on this.

[OneJ]

Interesting!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the states with the highest margins in 2012 and 2016 for each party? What were the bellwethers/tipping points? The closest state in 2012?

Looks great, by the way, Tim. Happy to see you're still working on this.

In 2012 Shoshone, Pawnee, and Yellowstone probably had the strongest pro-Romney vote. 2016 wasn't all that different likely, but Kentucky, Allegheny, and Ozark probably swung hard R.
The tipping point in 2016 was probably Maricopa. Either that or Carolina.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's back!

I doubt this was ever truly dead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Susquehanna, btw, was very close to the national average in 2012, but swung hard R in 2016. At least the Northern half. Parts of the southern half swung moderately towards Clinton (like Howard County MD) but it wasn't nearly enough to stave off the intense R trend in places like Scranton and Luzerne County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlasia's old 5 regions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And the current regions of Atlasia, courtesy of Peebs.

[Goldwater]

Very interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Estimated and/or calculated one-cycle 2012 PVIs

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

http://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/
Using this I found MS was only an 5 EV state, instead of an 6 EV one. They seem to fit 2010 census data pretty well.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

^Using this tool, I calculated that Cherokee went to Trump 60.65%-35.92% and to Romney 60.05%-38.64%. Swing was 3.32% R and trend was 1.56% R.
EDIT (1:28 PM): Also, Carolina went to Clinton 50.02%-46.73% and to Obama 51.60%-47.35%. Swing was 0.96% R and trend was 0.80% D.
EDIT 2 (1:41 PM): Adams went to Clinton 58.01%-36.56% and to Obama 58.94%-39.51%. Swing was 2.02% D and trend was 3.78% D.
EDIT 3: Kennebec went to Clinton 49.44%-44.22% and to Obama 57.70%-39.99%. Swing was 12.49% R and trend was 10.73% R.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Tim, do you have the current county map?

EDIT: Decided to just make estimates from most recent state and county maps.
Finished it. May have made some errors, but expect a table!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Amt. of Reps per state, including input from this apportionment calculator:
Adams - 11
Allegheny - 13
California - 24
Carolina - 10
Chattahoochee - 8
Cherokee - 15
Chesapeake - 13
Choctaw - 6
Colorado - 6
Columbia - 3
Coronado - 5
Dakota - 4
Delmarva - 2
Erie - 19
Franklin - 9
Gitchigumi - 13
Hawaii - 2
Houston - 10
Hudson - 7
Jackson - 11
Jefferson - 9
Kennebec - 4
Kentucky - 6
Kootenai - 1
LaSalle - 20
Lincoln - 10
Llano - 3
Maricopa - 15
Miami - 13
Mississippi - 3
Missouri - 7
Nevada - 4
New York - 27
Oregon - 11
Osceola - 21
Oso - 11
Ozark - 5
Pawnee - 2
Puerto Rico - 5
Rio Grande - 6
Secoya - 11
Seminole - 7
Seneca - 5
Shoshone - 6
Susquehanna - 11
Texarkana - 4
Texas - 14
Tlingit - 1
Washington - 1
Yellowstone - 1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

thx for this work

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Llano's CDs

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Adams (13): C 58.01%-36.56%; O 58.94%-39.51% (S 2.02% D, T 3.78% D)
Allegheny (15): T 63.07%-32.92%; R 58.22%-40.09% (S 12.02% R, T 10.26% R)
California (26): C 61.73%-32.78%; O 58.78%-38.91% (S 9.08% D, T 10.86% D)
Carolina (12): C 49.96%-46.79%; O 51.55%-47.39% (S 0.99% R, T 0.77% D)
Chattahoochee (10): C 55.59%-41.28%; O 53.78%-45.14% (S 5.67% D, T 7.43% D)
Cherokee (17): T 60.65%-35.92%; R 60.05%-38.65% (S 3.33% R, T 1.57% R)
Chesapeake (15): C 58.06%-37.22%; O 58.13%-40.58% (S 3.29% D, T 5.05% D)
Choctaw (8): T 63.85%-30.07%; R 65.62%-33.87% (S 2.03% R, T 0.27% R)
Colorado (8): C 48.72%-42.77%; O 52.46%-45.23% (S 1.28% R, T 0.48% D)
Columbia (5): T 53.98%-38.21%; R 55.40%-42.02% (S 5.23% R, T 3.47% R)
Coronado (7): C 52.57%-38.17%; O 55.04%-41.61% (S 0.97% D, T 2.73% D)
Dakota (6): T 60.94%-32.35%; R 54.48%-43.60% (S 17.71% R, T 15.95% R)
Delmarva (4): C 47.92%-47.61%; O 53.14%-45.39% (S 7.44% R, T 5.68% R)
Erie (21): C 47.72%-47.69%; O 55.50%-43.26% (S 12.21% R, T 10.45% R)
Franklin (11): C 61.20%-35.54%; O 63.04%-35.95% (S 1.43% R, T 0.33% D)
Gitchigumi (15): T 47.71%-45.63%; O 52.39%-45.96% (S 8.51% R, T 6.75% R)
Hawaii (4): C 62.22%-30.04%; O 70.55%-27.84% (S 10.53% R, T 8.77% R)
Houston (12): T 52.37%-44.09%; R 57.30%-41.51% (S 7.51% D, T 9.27% D)
Hudson (9): C 52.29%-42.81%; O 58.87%-39.54% (S 9.85% R, T 8.09% R)
Jackson (13): T 65.36%-31.23%; R 63.63%-35.02% (S 5.52% R, T 3.76% R)
Jefferson (11): T 60.58%-36.21%; R 59.91%-38.71% (S 3.17% R, T 1.41% R)
Kennebec (6): C 49.44%-44.22%; O 57.70%-39.99% (S 12.49% R, T 10.73% R)
Kentucky (8): T 60.91%-34.50%; R 58.09%-40.16% (S 8.48% R, T 6.72% R)
Kootenai (3): T 53.78%-38.40%; R 52.98%-43.98% (S 6.38% R, T 4.62% R)
LaSalle (22): C 56.47%-38.42%; O 57.60%-41.10% (S 1.55% D, T 3.31% D)
Lincoln (12): T 52.28%-42.27%; O 49.69%-48.55% (S 11.15% R, T 9.45% R)
Llano (5): T 75.24%-20.74%; R 76.26-22.28% (S 0.52% R, T 1.24% D)
Maricopa (17): C 50.47%-44.29%; R 50.43%-47.73% (S 8.88% D, T 10.64% D)
Miami (15): T 55.42%-39.75%; R 54.41%-43.82% (S 5.08% R, T 3.32% R)
Mississippi (5): C 55.86%-41.66%; O 58.22%-40.89% (S 3.13% R, T 1.37% R)
Missouri (9): T 51.26%-42.54%; R 51.49%-46.71% (S 3.94% R, T 2.16% R)
Nevada (6): T 48.11%-45.49%; R 49.28%-48.85% (S 2.19% R, T 0.43% R)
New York (29): C 63.11%-34.04%; O 64.63%-34.37% (S 1.19% R, T 0.57% D)
Oregon (13): C 58.54%-34.17%; O 59.79%-37.62% (S 2.20% D, T 3.96% D)
Osceola (23): C 50.67%-46.28%; O 52.90%-46.29% (S 2.22% R, T 0.46% R)
Oso (13): C 74.80%-19.53%; O 72.83%-24.51% (S 6.95% D, T 8.71% D)
Ozark (7): T 68.89%-26.13%; R 65.78%-31.91% (S 8.89% R, T 7.13% R)
Pawnee (4): T 74.57%-20.02%; R 72.18%-25.92% (S 8.29% R, T 6.53% R)
Puerto Rico (7): (Obviously, PR didn't vote in OTL, but if they did, C and O would win bigly)
Rio Grande (8): C 54.63%-41.48%; O 54.00%-44.81% (S 3.96% D, T 5.72% D)
Secoya (13): T 47.73%-45.78%; R 49.78%-47.74% (S 0.09% D, T 1.85% D)
Seminole (9): T 59.34%-37.69%; R 58.24%-40.80% (S 4.21% R, T 2.45% R)
Seneca (7): T 47.40%-47.28%; O 54.68%-43.45% (S 11.35% R, T 9.59% R)
Shoshone (8): T 51.99%-27.83%; R 69.19%-28.27% (S 16.76% D, T 18.52% D)
Susquehanna (13): T 50.59%-45.08%; O 50.26%-48.04% (S 7.73% R,
Texarkana (6): T 61.97%-34.62%; R 60.90%-37.46% (S 3.91% R, T 2.15% R)
Texas (16): T 52.80%-42.82%; R 57.88%-40.46% (S 7.44% D, T 9.20% D)
Tlingit (3): T 51.28%-36.55%; R 54.80%-40.81% (S 0.74% R, T 1.02% D)
Washington (3): C 90.86%-4.09%; O 90.91%-7.28% (S 3.14% D, T 1.38% D)
Yellowstone (3): T 69.40%-23.87%; R 66.90%-30.49% (S 9.12% R, T 7.36% R)
EC results (268 to win)
2016: C 286-249
2012: O 316-219
Maps likely next.
EDIT: 1 more space after the T for Trump in Tlingit.