Who will win Gwinnett and Cobb Counties?

[GAinDC]

Both are fast growing counties that have long been a bastion of new south conservatism.

Both are rapidly diversifying. Gwinnett is 39% non-Hispanic white and Cobb is 53% non Hispanic white.

Obama kept the margins close in both of his campaigns and if Clinton does make a push to win GA, she will have to make inroads in these two counties.

Gwinnett: It is now majority-minority, giving Clinton a larger pool of voters, but many are not registered. White voters are generally middle class and educated but still a lot of rural, blue-collar voters on the fringes of the county who are more pro-Trump.

Cobb: Whites are still a majority and Cobb has a stronger legacy of conservatism (Newt Gingrich, 1990's anti LGBT referendum, history of anti-transit sentiment) but is also more educated and affluent than Gwinnett. Many of these voters could be more likely to switch their allegiances to Clinton.

So....?

[Podgy the Bear]

Gwinnett is more likely than Cobb to flip to Hillary.  But I think Trump is likely to win both. 

The population shifts in the metro Atlanta area have been significant.  But the R to D switch in DeKalb and Clayton (and now Rockdale and Douglas) resulted with an influx of substantial African-American populations.  The migration into Cobb and Gwinnett is much more diverse and international--and many of the people are not eligible to vote yet.

[evergreenarbor]

I think Clinton will narrowly win Gwinnett and very narrowly lose Cobb.

[GAinDC]

Gwinnett is more likely than Cobb to flip to Hillary.  But I think Trump is likely to win both. 

The population shifts in the metro Atlanta area have been significant.  But the R to D switch in DeKalb and Clayton (and now Rockdale and Douglas) resulted with an influx of substantial African-American populations.  The migration into Cobb and Gwinnett is much more diverse and international--and many of the people are not eligible to vote yet.

Very good point. The shifts in Clayton, Rockdale, Douglas and now Henry have been fast and dramatic and I'm not sure the same will happen in Cobb and Gwinnett for the reasons you listed.

What intrigues me is that the results in Cobb and Gwinnett in the 2014 elections hardly shifted from the prez election 2 years earlier, despite an older, whiter and more conservative electorate. Is this the sign of a big shift to come??

[Seriously?]

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

[IceSpear]

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

What do you think the final margin in GA will be?

[Seriously?]

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

What do you think the final margin in GA will be?

It depends on what the final national margin will be.

Georgia will be in the Republican column around 10-points, just about where it always is. Even if Trump loses nationwide by fewer than five points.

You will not see a net-9 point swing towards Hillary. Undecideds will break Republican, like they always do.

[GAinDC]

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

What do you think the final margin in GA will be?

It depends on what the final national margin will be.

Georgia will be in the Republican column around 10-points, just about where it always is. Even if Trump loses nationwide by fewer than five points.

You will not see a net-9 point swing towards Hillary. Undecideds will break Republican, like they always do.

Clearly you must not be aware of the dramatic demographic changes occurring in our state. I assume you probably don't live anywhere close to metro Atlanta.

I'm not saying Clinton will definitely win Cobb, Gwinnett or the state of Georgia- but big swings often accompany big changes in the electorate. Don't be so surprised when GA is a very close call on election day.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump wins both, but with a significantly reduced margin from 2012.

[Seriously?]

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

What do you think the final margin in GA will be?

It depends on what the final national margin will be.

Georgia will be in the Republican column around 10-points, just about where it always is. Even if Trump loses nationwide by fewer than five points.

You will not see a net-9 point swing towards Hillary. Undecideds will break Republican, like they always do.

Clearly you must not be aware of the dramatic demographic changes occurring in our state. I assume you probably don't live anywhere close to metro Atlanta.

I'm not saying Clinton will definitely win Cobb, Gwinnett or the state of Georgia- but big swings often accompany big changes in the electorate. Don't be so surprised when GA is a very close call on election day.

I am well aware of the demographic shifts. I am also well aware where the state is politically and how it traditionally polls. Either way, I don't see it the way that the red avatars do on this site.

[DrScholl]

Clinton will win both of them if she wins the state (which is possible). Trump is far too polarizing for the educated whites in those counties.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Trump will very narrowly win both. They're both likely to trend Democratic. The demographic differences between the two is that Gwinnett is more diverse but Cobb has higher levels of income and education. Pretty much, I expect them to vote very similarly again and don't think one is more likely than the other to vote Trump/Clinton.

[Devils30]

Look at the census. Gwinnett is 5% less white than 2010 as of 2015. It's reasonable to expect the 2016 electorate to be 4% less white than 2012. It's also decently educated and GOP is maxed with whites. Should be very very close.

[Del Tachi]

Clinton wins both, but Gwinnett flights before Cobb. 

[Arbitrage1980]

I grew up in Gwinnett County; it's gotten super diverse over the years, but I think Trump will hold onto it.  Neither Gwinnett nor Cobb have gone to a democrat since Carter in 1976. And despite the diversity, lot of the immigrants either can't vote or they are not politically active and don't even bother to vote. 

In terms of the state overall, Trump will win it unless he loses the national popular vote by more than 5-6 points. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

She'll win Gwinnett if she winning Georgia and has a chance at Cobb. The next Democrat to win the presidency should win Georgia while carrying both counties. There is no Republican friendly demographic growing in Atlanta let alone Georgia.