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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2024: After two terms of Trump
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Author Topic: 2024: After two terms of Trump  (Read 3147 times)
Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
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« on: August 21, 2016, 01:45:33 am »
« edited: August 21, 2016, 01:10:54 pm by Northern Assembly Candidate Spark498 »

Pick your candidates who will run. I think that the Republicans would likely lose in a landslide and we would get our first female president.



Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) - 493 EVs, (63.8%)
Vice-President Mike Pence (R-IN) / Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) - 45 EVs, (37.2%)
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 02:53:52 am »


375: Senator Robin Carnahan*/Governor Artur Davis** - ~53.5%
163: Businessman Eric Trump/Solicitor General Corey Stewart*** - ~42.0%
Representative Justin Amash/LNC Chair Nicholas Sarwak - 4.3%
Others - 0.2%

*Elected in 2018 when McCaskill retired to run for Governor in 2020
**Elected in 2018 against Roy Moore
***District Attorney of Eastern Virginia: Jan. 31, 2017 - Jan. 31, 2019; Chief Justice of the Virginia Supreme Court: Jan. 31, 2019 - Jan. 3, 2021 ; Solicitor General: Jan. 4, 2021 - PRESENT

Keynote speakers are Virginia Senator James Stavridis and Governor Gavin Newsom, and Virginia Governor Barbara Comstock and Commerce Secretary Jared Kushner.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 02:55:10 am »


375: Senator Robin Carnahan*/Governor Artur Davis** - ~53.5%
163: Businessman Eric Trump/Solicitor General Corey Stewart*** - ~42.0%
Representative Justin Amash/LNC Chair Nicholas Sarwak - 4.3%
Others - 0.2%

*Elected in 2018 when McCaskill retired to run for Governor in 2020
**Elected in 2018 against Roy Moore
***District Attorney of Eastern Virginia: Jan. 31, 2017 - Jan. 31, 2019; Chief Justice of the Virginia Supreme Court: Jan. 31, 2019 - Jan. 3, 2021 ; Solicitor General: Jan. 4, 2021 - PRESENT

Keynote speakers are Virginia Senator James Stavridis and Governor Gavin Newsom, and Virginia Governor Barbara Comstock and Commerce Secretary Jared Kushner.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2016, 02:27:18 am »

Don't worry about a second term of Donald Trump; sweat out the first. He will bring about either an economic disaster as did Herbert Hoover or a diplomatic disaster as did Jimmy Carter, and the Democrats will run nominate one of the two Senators from Minnesota. Donald Trump or Mike Pence will end up with about 50 electoral votes as Republicans lose even what now liik like safe states for them.

 
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 07:33:00 am »

Nationalism/Trumpism probably replaces Conservatism and to a less extent, Neoconservatism as the GOP establishment. The question then becomes what happens with the Democratic establishment? If Hillary loses because her campaign collapsed, was it because Hillary wasn't liberal enough, or was it because she just didn't have the skills (or was actually corrupt).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 08:55:40 am »

Harris/Murphy sounds pretty reaslstic in any case; Pence won't get the GOP nod.



✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Senator Patrick Murphy (D-FL): ~385 EVs.; 53.8%
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)/Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA): ~ 150 EVs.; 44.7%


Exact EV-numbers unknown since they’re based on the 2020 census.  
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Orser67
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2016, 10:25:09 am »

After having taken control of Congress in 2018 and shockingly having lost the 2020 presidential election, Democrats win a landslide 2024 election and look to roll back all of the Trump agenda.



✓ Senator Kamala Harris/Senator Chris Murphy
Vice President Chris Christie*/Senator Joni Ernst

*Trump got bored with Pence and replaced him with Christie in 2020
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2016, 12:46:11 pm »

Nationalism/Trumpism probably replaces Conservatism and to a less extent, Neoconservatism as the GOP establishment.The question then becomes what happens with the Democratic establishment? If Hillary loses because her campaign collapsed, was it because Hillary wasn't liberal enough, or was it because she just didn't have the skills (or was actually corrupt).

This will never, ever happen.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2016, 01:52:24 pm »

Nationalism/Trumpism probably replaces Conservatism and to a less extent, Neoconservatism as the GOP establishment.The question then becomes what happens with the Democratic establishment? If Hillary loses because her campaign collapsed, was it because Hillary wasn't liberal enough, or was it because she just didn't have the skills (or was actually corrupt).

This will never, ever happen.

Even if it proves successful? I'd imagine if Trump isn't completely successful (he loses or loses congress)  that old Establishment will probably burrow back into the helm.  That's kind of what happen with W. Are there those that argued that had Iraq gone better, that someone like Rubio or Jeb would have gotten the nomination even if Obama won twice?
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Medal506
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2016, 11:49:31 am »

Mike Pence becomes the nominee in 2024
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2016, 06:00:28 pm »


... So that's your 2024 map, and my similar map in 2040 makes you say:

Did I actually wake up between 1896-1948?
?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2016, 08:24:32 pm »

To answer the main question, 2 terms of Trump would lead to a very quick realignment.  If the 2020 and 24 Dem nominees are from the Sanders wing of the party, the Libertarians could run very strong, but I think it's more likely that the Dems reach out to libertarian types when they are down and out during 2017-18 and Trump reaches out to Sanders types during his 1st term.  Dems might get the House in 2018, but probably not until 2022, when they should also flip the Senate.  The major issues of the day would depend heavily on who Trump appointed to SCOTUS and whether Ginsburg, Breyer and Kennedy made it to 2023.  It's possible that gay rights and abortion completely fade away as issues.  Trump winning twice means massive GOP gains with secular whites.  Mormons might be swing voters by then.  Evangelicals should move at least somewhat to the center.



Gwen Graham (FL-GOV)*/Hector Balderas (NM-GOV)** 50.2% 315ish EV
Joni Ernst (IA-SEN)/Dean Lorenzo (RI-GOV)*** 45.7% 223ish EV
Evan McMullin (UT-GOV)****/Bill Walker(Fmr. AK-GOV) 4.1% 0 EV

*Elected in 2018, reelected in 2022
**Elected in 2018, reelected in 2022, 2nd place finisher in Dem presidential primary
***Elected in 2022, fictional person
****Elected in 2020 as a Republican, left party in 2022


Don't know about that but the cultural center of GOP will change from Fundamentalism to Nationalism and maybe allow Republicans to lock up the Great Lakes Region outside of Chicago but more cosmopolitan parts of the L will vecome increasingly competitive.
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2016, 12:14:45 am »

America becomes so GREAT and we start WINNING on all fronts so much that we become tired of winning and elect a low energy president.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2016, 01:55:46 pm »

I don't think we can assume that there will be any more elections after the election of Trump. Trump might just declare himself King, restructure SCOTUS so it is 9-0 Trump supporters, and declare Congress dissolved. Then he orders the military to capture or kill any secret service officers, congressional leaders, etc. who attempt to ignore him.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2016, 07:19:04 am »

I don't think we can assume that there will be any more elections after the election of Trump. Trump might just declare himself King, restructure SCOTUS so it is 9-0 Trump supporters, and declare Congress dissolved. Then he orders the military to capture or kill any secret service officers, congressional leaders, etc. who attempt to ignore him.

You believe this and yet you're refusing to vote for the only person who could stop it from happening because she was sneaky with her emails?!

He doesn't believe that.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 03:16:16 pm »

I don't think we can assume that there will be any more elections after the election of Trump. Trump might just declare himself King, restructure SCOTUS so it is 9-0 Trump supporters, and declare Congress dissolved. Then he orders the military to capture or kill any secret service officers, congressional leaders, etc. who attempt to ignore him.

You believe this and yet you're refusing to vote for the only person who could stop it from happening because she was sneaky with her emails?!

He doesn't believe that.


He supports her now. Trump is probably ahead slightly by now.

The questions are-
How does Trump do down ballot here on out?
Does he get reelected?
Does he shift anything around that much?
How do Democrats change who they get votes from?
Is Trumpism here to stay?
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 04:09:12 pm »

I don't think we can assume that there will be any more elections after the election of Trump. Trump might just declare himself King, restructure SCOTUS so it is 9-0 Trump supporters, and declare Congress dissolved. Then he orders the military to capture or kill any secret service officers, congressional leaders, etc. who attempt to ignore him.

You believe this and yet you're refusing to vote for the only person who could stop it from happening because she was sneaky with her emails?!

Anyone else would be secretly executed and there would be no sign of them having ever existed.  Hillary shouldn't get white privilege treatment. "Sneaky with e-mails" is one way to talk about treason though.
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