Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato)

[politicallefty]

I didn't see this as a topic anywhere else, unless I didn't dig enough. I thought it might be a good idea to consolidate race rating changes from the Big 3 (Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato) into one topic. I was going to comment on the NC-Sen race being moved to a toss-up by the Cook Political Report (which I think is a big deal). Obviously, I think this topic should only be for House and Senate races. Anyway, I'll post all race rating changes by the Big 3 over the past two or three weeks:

Cook:
NC-Sen: Lean R to Toss Up
MN-02: Toss Up to Lean D

Rothenberg:
PA-Sen: Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Pure Toss-up
CO-Sen: Democrat Favored to Currently Safe Democrat
NH-01: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
MN-03: Currently Safe Republican to Republican Favored

Sabato:
CO-Sen: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
IN-09: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
KS-03: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
MN-02: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
NE-02: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

As for each race, I coloured them to signify the direction it moved. In this case, every race rating change has moved towards the Democratic Party (i.e. that's why NC-Sen and IN-09 are red). Obviously, everyone should feel free to contribute if they find something new (I would just ask that you try to use my format to showing how a race has changed, unless you can think of a better one).

[Orser67]

I can't believe Colorado is Safe Democratic two months before election day. Mark Udall must be jealous.

[Heisenberg]

I can't believe Colorado is Safe Democratic two months before election day. Mark Udall must be jealous.

That's because this is the year of Trump, and Glenn is just beyond awful. Any other Republican nominee and the race would only be Likely D, at the most, at this time.

[politicallefty]

Apparently, a new topic was made for Sabato's new ratings, but I'll repost it here to keep this topic current and complete. I've never asked, but I don't think it'd be a bad idea if a mod merged and stickied this topic. I think it helps to show both how the race stands and how it's moving.

Rothenberg:
AZ-Sen: Republican Favored to Lean Republican
MO-Sen: Republican Favored to Lean Republican
OH-Sen: Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican
CA-24: Currently Safe Democrat to Democrat Favored
NJ-05: Republican Favored to Lean Republican

Sabato:
FL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Republican
GA-Sen: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
IN-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
IL-Sen: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
NH-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Republican
PA-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic


If the election were today, personally, I think Democrats would win a 52-48 majority in the Senate (IL, WI, IN, NH, PA, and one other state). I'm probably more optimistic about the Senate than a lot of people. I think three seats are almost in the bag now (IL, WI, and IN) and two others are moving that way (NH and PA). North Carolina is probably most likely to be  the sixth pick-up if Democrats can get that high. It's too early to say about Missouri and Arizona (especially the latter since we don't yet know how committed Hillary's campaign is yet).

[Trapsy]

The fact that a dem has a chance in the MN02 district leaves me in glee. We been trying to dust the guy out but its worse that his seat could be replaced by a hack like Lewis.

[politicallefty]

The fact that a dem has a chance in the MN02 district leaves me in glee. We been trying to dust the guy out but its worse that his seat could be replaced by a hack like Lewis.

MN-02 is the kind of seat Democrats need to basically have in the bag right now, and it does appear that way. For the House to fall, we need seats like MN-03. If seats like MN-03 fall, it means college-educated whites are abandoning the Republican Party entirely from top to bottom. I don't see that happening right now, but we'll see over the course of the next 64 days what happens. As I've said before, if there's a wave to be had, it really won't show until October.

[Heisenberg]

The fact that a dem has a chance in the MN02 district leaves me in glee. We been trying to dust the guy out but its worse that his seat could be replaced by a hack like Lewis.

MN-02 is the kind of seat Democrats need to basically have in the bag right now, and it does appear that way. For the House to fall, we need seats like MN-03. If seats like MN-03 fall, it means college-educated whites are abandoning the Republican Party entirely from top to bottom. I don't see that happening right now, but we'll see over the course of the next 64 days what happens. As I've said before, if there's a wave to be had, it really won't show until October.

Paulson is a strong candidate, and pretty moderate. Most college educated Whites already know he is no Trump. He is here to stay.

[politicallefty]

Paulson is a strong candidate, and pretty moderate. Most college educated Whites already know he is no Trump. He is here to stay.

I didn't say he was going to lose, but Rothenberg has pulled him from the safe list. Cook has the race as Lean Republican and Sabato has it as Leans Republican. If anything, Rothenberg has been quite kind to Republicans in that race. If the internals are to be believed, Hillary is winning that district in a blowout landslide. Split ticket voting only goes so far. If the top of the ticket is losing by 25 points, there's not a lot you can do down-ballot. I think for the House to flip requires a lot of college-educated white Republicans to stay home. That's very possible and how a seat like MN-03 falls. As Stu Rothenberg mentioned in a WaPo article, if MN-03 falls, the Republican House Majority is in serious danger. Massive seat changes in Congress don't happen because one side wins big. They happen when one side basically sits out the election (as Democrats did in 2010 and 2014 and Republicans in 2006). The biggest threat to down-ballot Republicans is a significant number of college-educated white suburban Republicans staying home come Election Day.

[Nyvin]

MN-2 has been potentially competitive for a long time now, it's just that Kline was an entrenched incumbent for the last decade which kept it out of sight for elections.    It's gradually evolving into a more urban-centric district which most definitely benefits Dems.   Unfortunately it looks like most of the Urban sprawl from Minneapolis is going south and east,  not much west for MN-3.

Also it really seems like Rothenberg is a bit too generous to the GOP sometimes.

[Kingpoleon]

Paulson is a strong candidate, and pretty moderate. Most college educated Whites already know he is no Trump. He is here to stay.

I didn't say he was going to lose, but Rothenberg has pulled him from the safe list. Cook has the race as Lean Republican and Sabato has it as Leans Republican. If anything, Rothenberg has been quite kind to Republicans in that race. If the internals are to be believed, Hillary is winning that district in a blowout landslide. Split ticket voting only goes so far. If the top of the ticket is losing by 25 points, there's not a lot you can do down-ballot. I think for the House to flip requires a lot of college-educated white Republicans to stay home. That's very possible and how a seat like MN-03 falls. As Stu Rothenberg mentioned in a WaPo article, if MN-03 falls, the Republican House Majority is in serious danger. Massive seat changes in Congress don't happen because one side wins big. They happen when one side basically sits out the election (as Democrats did in 2010 and 2014 and Republicans in 2006). The biggest threat to down-ballot Republicans is a significant number of college-educated white suburban Republicans staying home come Election Day.

Paulsen historically has a strong ground campaign and has made inroads into demographics which won't lower. He's never been reliant on college educated whites because there's no helping him there by the Minnesota GOP and the NRCCC. I'm hopeful he wins, and that Klobuchar gets into Hillary's cabinet. He'd be a strong candidate statewide and might manage to fix the Minnesota Republican Party.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MN-2 has been potentially competitive for a long time now, it's just that Kline was an entrenched incumbent for the last decade which kept it out of sight for elections.    It's gradually evolving into a more urban-centric district which most definitely benefits Dems.

Also it really seems like Rothenberg is a bit too generous to the GOP sometimes.

Part of it is that Rothenberg considers every race not in his "safe" category to be competitive right now, while Cook/Sabato uses their "likely" category for places that are not competitive now, but could fall in a big wave - Rothenberg just keeps those races at Safe.

[politicallefty]

Paulsen historically has a strong ground campaign and has made inroads into demographics which won't lower. He's never been reliant on college educated whites because there's no helping him there by the Minnesota GOP and the NRCCC. I'm hopeful he wins, and that Klobuchar gets into Hillary's cabinet. He'd be a strong candidate statewide and might manage to fix the Minnesota Republican Party.

Maybe he's not reliant on those types of voters because he's taken them for granted. Democrats do have a strong candidate for the district. It is a core suburban district where Trump is likely to vastly underperform. I do appreciate your optimism about having a reasonable and sane Republican Party, but as a Democrat, I think it's far more important right now to have a unified government in 2017. That means Erik Paulsen needs to be defeated so Democrats can take back the House.

MN-2 has been potentially competitive for a long time now, it's just that Kline was an entrenched incumbent for the last decade which kept it out of sight for elections.    It's gradually evolving into a more urban-centric district which most definitely benefits Dems.

Also it really seems like Rothenberg is a bit too generous to the GOP sometimes.

Part of it is that Rothenberg considers every race not in his "safe" category to be competitive right now, while Cook/Sabato uses their "likely" category for places that are not competitive now, but could fall in a big wave - Rothenberg just keeps those races at Safe.

MN-02 is very likely to go Democratic at this point. As I mentioned above, Cook and Sabato have MN-03 as Lean(s) Republican. If that seat or similar seats start moving into the toss-up category, the House forecast will change significantly.

[Kingpoleon]

Paulsen historically has a strong ground campaign and has made inroads into demographics which won't lower. He's never been reliant on college educated whites because there's no helping him there by the Minnesota GOP and the NRCCC. I'm hopeful he wins, and that Klobuchar gets into Hillary's cabinet. He'd be a strong candidate statewide and might manage to fix the Minnesota Republican Party.

Maybe he's not reliant on those types of voters because he's taken them for granted. Democrats do have a strong candidate for the district. It is a core suburban district where Trump is likely to vastly underperform. I do appreciate your optimism about having a reasonable and sane Republican Party, but as a Democrat, I think it's far more important right now to have a unified government in 2017. That means Erik Paulsen needs to be defeated so Democrats can take back the House.

No, Paulsen's managed to win in spite of him not getting any GOTV for college whites. I'm not concerned about a sane and reasonable GOP. I just wish the Minnesota state party would become better and more competitive. It's not good for a state that could be competitive to not have two strong state parties competing.

[Heisenberg]

Paulsen historically has a strong ground campaign and has made inroads into demographics which won't lower. He's never been reliant on college educated whites because there's no helping him there by the Minnesota GOP and the NRCCC. I'm hopeful he wins, and that Klobuchar gets into Hillary's cabinet. He'd be a strong candidate statewide and might manage to fix the Minnesota Republican Party.

Maybe he's not reliant on those types of voters because he's taken them for granted. Democrats do have a strong candidate for the district. It is a core suburban district where Trump is likely to vastly underperform. I do appreciate your optimism about having a reasonable and sane Republican Party, but as a Democrat, I think it's far more important right now to have a unified government in 2017. That means Erik Paulsen needs to be defeated so Democrats can take back the House.

No, Paulsen's managed to win in spite of him not getting any GOTV for college whites. I'm not concerned about a sane and reasonable GOP. I just wish the Minnesota state party would become better and more competitive. It's not good for a state that could be competitive to not have two strong state parties competing.

Paulsen would be a great statewide candidate. I would love to see a Senator Paulsen, though the only realistic way I can see it happening is him first winning in a special election.

[Kingpoleon]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

[Heisenberg]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Paulsen is closer to the center, but the state does have a Democratic lean. Kurt Bills (Klobuchar's 2012 opponent) only won 2 or 3 counties in the Southwest corner. He seemed like a completely incompetent candidate who wasn't even serious from what I've heard (Wulfric, was that true?), not to mention that it was one of the first races national Republican groups triaged.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Paulsen is closer to the center, but the state does have a Democratic lean. Kurt Bills (Klobuchar's 2012 opponent) only won 2 or 3 counties in the Southwest corner. He seemed like a completely incompetent candidate who wasn't even serious from what I've heard (Wulfric, was that true?), not to mention that it was one of the first races national Republican groups triaged.

Yeah, Kurt Bills wasn't a serious candidate. The state and national GOP just accepted that Klobuchar was going to win reelection and didn't even try.

[Kingpoleon]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Has Klobuchar ever faced an actual opponent?

Franken took down a Main Street Republican incumbent, who happened to be able to beat a former Vice President, who was pretty social liberal who had previously called himself a "fiscally conservative Democrat". This in spite of Dean Barkely essentially only taking votes from Franken. Additionally, Franken always gets challenged by the national Republicans far more than Klobuchar does.

Regardless of your ideology, I'm sure most people can agree Franken is a better person than Klobuchar and definitely more charismatic.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Has Klobuchar ever faced an actual opponent?

Regardless of your ideology, I'm sure most people can agree Franken is a better person than Klobuchar and definitely more charismatic.

Yes, her 2006 opponent was an incumbent congressman.

Anecdotal Evidence is ancedotal, but my grandfather, who is conservative on everything except Medicare/SS, likes Klobuchar but despises Franken.

[Heisenberg]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Has Klobuchar ever faced an actual opponent?

Regardless of your ideology, I'm sure most people can agree Franken is a better person than Klobuchar and definitely more charismatic.

Yes, her 2006 opponent was an incumbent congressman.

Anecdotal Evidence is ancedotal, but my grandfather, who is conservative on everything except Medicare/SS, likes Klobuchar but despises Franken.

It also helped that 2006 was a MASSIVE Democratic wave. Also, from what I've heard, Klobuchar's has more crossover appeal than Franken. The anecdote seems to prove it.

[Heisenberg]

New Cook rating changes:
House:
AZ-09: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
NY-03: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
KS-03: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
CO-03: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
UT-04: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NE-02: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
MI-11: Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Senate
OH-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Republican
IL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

[politicallefty]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

I think Klobuchar is as close to safe as you can get in Minnesota. She's basically a perfect fit for the state. I don't think even a 2010-style wave could take her down. Franken is a strong incumbent, but I don't think he's anywhere near as strong as Klobuchar. I think Minnesota's generally high turnout prevents extreme results. Democrats took the Governor's Mansion in 2010 and held it in 2014 (not to mention Al Franken was easily reelected).

New Cook rating changes:
House:
AZ-09: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
NY-03: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
KS-03: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
CO-03: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
UT-04: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NE-02: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
MI-11: Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Senate
OH-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Republican
IL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

Ah, very good! Thank you for following the changes and formatting them as I did. UT-04 and NE-02 are somewhat surprising moves, but I don't know what Cook's necessarily seeing that we're not. Hillary's making a big push for NE-02. I have to imagine Ashford will run ahead of her. As for the Senate races, none of those are surprising. However, it should be noted that it does take quite a lot for Charlie Cook to move an incumbent Senator to probable defeat. In 2006, I'm pretty sure Santorum was the only one at worse than Toss-up. I also noticed that Cook revised his bottom line for the House (which, in short, sounds like he doesn't really know yet):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I do have some additions:

Sabato:
AZ-02: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
CA-10: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
CA-52: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
CA-36: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
FL-07: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
MD-06: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
NV-03: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
NY-18: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
VA-02: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
WI-08: Toss-up to Leans Republican

I think NV-03 is probably due to the close presidential polling. California is looking to be even nastier for Republicans than 2012 or even 2014. CA-07 is basically the only real battleground in California, but even that's looking quite good for Democrats. Democrats are on serious offense in California. On a good night, Democrats could end up with a 43-10 House delegation.

[PAK Man]

I'm wondering why it took so long to move VA-02 off the board. I moved that to Safe R once no serious Democrat filed to run.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

IL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

Just a teensy bit late to the party.

(Btw, is it just me or is Cuck Political Report usually generous to Republicans in their ratings?)