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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Missouri 2008
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Author Topic: Missouri 2008  (Read 3859 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 18, 2016, 12:21:04 pm »

Why was Missouri so close in 2008?  McCain barely won it by 0.13%, the closest state that year.  But Bush killed it there in 2000 and 2004 and Romney won it by around 11% in 2012.
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 12:23:37 pm »

Because the election was more Democrat-leaning than any of the other 3 you listed and because Obama drove up black turnout
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 03:28:02 pm »

Because the election was more Democrat-leaning than any of the other 3 you listed and because Obama drove up black turnout

Yeah I know black turnout in St. Louis was massive.  But black turnout nationwide was actually HIGHER in 2012 (remarkable feat), and Obama lost the state by a big margin.  So it seems like either black turnout in St. Louis declined and/or white turnout increased massively.  Romney did improve on McCain's white vote while doing worse with nonwhites.
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catographer
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 09:49:06 pm »

I would say that Missouri in 08 was the sweet spot between Obama's great urban and minority margins in '12 and Kerry's much better performance among southern whites than Obama in '12.
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Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 09:56:58 pm »

The high AA turnout had a lot to do with it (St. Louis, Kansas City), and also it was a Democratic year due to Bush's unpopularity and the recession.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 09:58:05 pm »

In addition to the above factors, Obama also had a presence in the St. Louis media market since 2004 when he first ran for Senate.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2016, 03:58:31 am »

If Gore and Kerry had won the popular vote by 7 points, they'd have carried Missouri comfortably.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2016, 03:12:31 pm »

If Clinton had won by the margin nationally that Obama did, she likely would have carried Missouri.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 03:28:58 pm »

If Clinton had won by the margin nationally that Obama did, she likely would have carried Missouri.

I could EASILY have seen Hillary getting this map in 2008 if everything broke the same, maybe just a tad better for her:



White Democrats "coming home" and Katrina backlash make LA close.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 06:01:45 pm »

Clinton wouldn't have done much better with White voters in the Deep South. She would have lost LA, GA and even NC. VA would have been much closer and McCain would have won WV and probably AR.

If you say so, but I recall polls having Hillary winning both WV and AR in general election matchups.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2016, 06:28:23 pm »

^ Yeah most polls before she dropped out showed her winning or running close in them.
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Attorney General
Harrytruman48
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2016, 09:28:44 pm »

Bush barely won it in 2000, the amazing thing to me was that Obama didn't win Missouri in 2008.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2016, 01:04:39 pm »

Yeah, Bush 2000 won Missouri by 3.3%. Dukakis lost it by just 3.5% in 1988.  I think the farmers in that state are more pro-democrats due to the GOP not being on their side on economic issues.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 04:21:09 pm »

Yeah, Bush 2000 won Missouri by 3.3%. Dukakis lost it by just 3.5% in 1988.  I think the farmers in that state are more pro-democrats due to the GOP not being on their side on economic issues.

First of all rural Missouri is very republican and secondly which issues do farmers not agree with republicans on, other than maybe ethanol which many republicans support anyway?
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 05:29:52 pm »

Well St. Alphonso the Southeastern Missouri and Springfield areas are super conservative but Democrats have shown themselves to be perfectly capable of winning other parts of the state.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2016, 08:23:13 pm »

If Clinton had won by the margin nationally that Obama did, she likely would have carried Missouri.

I could EASILY have seen Hillary getting this map in 2008 if everything broke the same, maybe just a tad better for her:



White Democrats "coming home" and Katrina backlash make LA close.
What about Indiana and NE-02? Do you think that Clinton would have gone after other places instead, and just leave them on the table?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2016, 06:03:28 am »

LOL @ the idea of Hillary winning AR and WV. She'd probably have done worse than Obama in NC and lost it as well.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2016, 02:09:33 pm »

I didn't care at the time because Obama won so decisively, but why wasn't there a recount here?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2016, 02:39:07 pm »

A margin of 4000 is far outside what is likely to be flipped by a recount.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2016, 05:25:21 pm »

LOL @ the idea of Hillary winning AR and WV. She'd probably have done worse than Obama in NC and lost it as well.

LOL if you'd like, but I'm just going off of the polls that were done during the primary season and the fact that those states both had Democrats elected up and down the ballot with ease that year.  I mean, it was 8 years ago.

But yes, LOL at the polls because of stuff we know in 2016 based off of an Obama Presidency...
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Nym90
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« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2016, 12:47:42 pm »

I didn't care at the time because Obama won so decisively, but why wasn't there a recount here?

Obama probably felt the same way you did. If the state's result doesn't affect the national outcome, it would look like sour grapes to contest the result in a close state.
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Redban
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2016, 02:00:33 pm »

I didn't care at the time because Obama won so decisively, but why wasn't there a recount here?

I believe the candidate has to demand a recount, and as Obama already had 363 votes, such a demand would be pointless and arrogant.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 03:24:58 pm »

Hillary probably would've won AR in 2008 and would've had a decent chance in WV. Remember, this was before Appalachia began to see the entire Democratic Party as an anti-white hate group, and the country as a whole was much less polarized in 08.
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jimmie
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2016, 03:49:54 pm »

Hillary probably would've won AR in 2008 and would've had a decent chance in WV. Remember, this was before Appalachia began to see the entire Democratic Party as an anti-white hate group, and the country as a whole was much less polarized in 08.

Yes, and all that was only 8 years ago.. kind of goes to show how things can certainly change... and why I get a bit annoyed when atlas predicts future elections based on the last general election result.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2016, 10:47:56 pm »

Hillary probably would've won AR in 2008 and would've had a decent chance in WV. Remember, this was before Appalachia began to see the entire Democratic Party as an anti-white hate group, and the country as a whole was much less polarized in 08.
Yeah... this was before the Tea Party (aka Second Gingrich Revolution), though that was probably just as much the symptom as the cause of our absurd polarization...
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