Mitchell Research-MI: Clinton +10 in 4-way race
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 14, 2024, 03:52:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Mitchell Research-MI: Clinton +10 in 4-way race
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Mitchell Research-MI: Clinton +10 in 4-way race  (Read 3485 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,559


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 16, 2016, 06:35:42 PM »

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 5%

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/elections-2016/192382552-story
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,433
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 06:45:59 PM »

So although the numbers seem reasonable, Mitchell is ranked a "D" pollster according to 538 ratings from what I understand.
Logged
Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 06:59:42 PM »

Their last poll in Michigan was Clinton 40% Trump 34% with 27% undecided in mid-July, for comparison.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 07:16:06 PM »

If even crappy Michigan pollsters are showing Clinton this far ahead, Trump has no chance here.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 08:07:34 PM »

that's pretty great considering Michigan polls are horrible and very right-wing.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,915


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 09:00:04 PM »

Kind of surprising how poorly Trump is doing here (keep in mind MI polling firms are bad and underestimate Democrats). I thought he'd be able to close the gap a little.
Logged
Desroko
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 09:13:20 PM »

Kind of surprising how poorly Trump is doing here (keep in mind MI polling firms are bad and underestimate Democrats). I thought he'd be able to close the gap a little.

Larger than average AA population, average educational attainment, and a substantial, motivated, high-turnout minority group in the Arab-American community. People think of Michigan as if it's one giant working class white auto garage, but that's a wildly outdated view. 
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,827
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 09:45:21 PM »

Michigan, Likely Dem
Pennsylvania, Likely Dem
Colorado, Likely Dem
Virginia, Likely Dem

Where is Trump's path? He's almost mathematically eliminated
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 09:49:21 PM »

Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 09:56:10 PM »

Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

Yeah I don't see an overall R trend in MI happening this year.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,747
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 10:48:38 PM »

Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

Yeah I don't see an overall R trend in MI happening this year.

It might trend a little R. Or a little D. I think regardless of what happens, it'll just be noise and not indicative of anything, much to the disappointment of some Republicans.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 10:51:01 PM »


This adds up to 103%
Logged
Desroko
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 10:53:37 PM »

Logged
Stockdale for Veep
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 810


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 11:43:49 PM »


Typical Detroit voter fraud...
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 11:45:33 PM »


I think the rounding only works if there are no undecideds, and Clinton is at 48.5, Trump 38.5, Johnson 8.5 and Stein 4.5, which adds up to 100, before rounding.  That's just bizarre - but so is every poll from a Michigan-only pollster, it seems.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:31 PM »

They just vote harder in MI, surprised it isn't 110%.  Plus, I guess I have to be the nerd and point out it actually adds up to 102 not 103.
Logged
Desroko
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:38 PM »

Maybe. I can't find the release yet.
Logged
Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 01:13:33 AM »


Still not as bad as the Rasmussen poll from 2010 as presented by Fox News that added up to 120%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/08/fox-news-fuzzy-math-claim_n_384308.html
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2016, 01:24:00 AM »

Clinton at almost 50% in a four-way, will this finally put to rest the theory among some that Michigan is up for grabs?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,857
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2016, 07:27:09 AM »

that's pretty great considering Michigan polls are horrible and very right-wing.

Yes, this state is clearly going to have an R trend this year, so this is about the best Clinton could ever hope for coming from one of the polls that had a Romney leading or statistically tied during summer 2012.

Michigan, like Pennsylvania, always looks like an over-ripe piece of fruit just about ready to drop into Republican hands during the summer of an election year, tantalizing Republicans to spend huge amounts of money on it. Then it closes Democratic. If anything it has started with a slight Democratic edge.

Michigan this year is beginning to look like Michigan in 2008 in political partisanship even with a far-better economy.   

   
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2016, 08:14:05 AM »

Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

I've been saying this (and Colorado) for months now, with a lot of pushback. MI and CO are pretty much locks barring a Trump landslide.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2016, 08:19:52 AM »

Finally. RCP has a Clinton lead. 272. This election is over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2016, 08:50:52 AM »

She will win by 14 points in the end.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 09:30:19 AM »

The kids are alright

Presidential Preference among 18-29 year olds:

Clinton: 60%
Johnson: 16%
Stein: 10%
Undecided: 9%
Trump: 5%


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MI_8-16_FOX_2_Detroit_-_Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_8-16-16_A.pdf - page 7
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2016, 10:47:54 AM »

Also, can someone enter this into the database? I would, but I don't have access right now.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.