The 2016 Election: Shaking Things Up

[Wells]

Status of the timeline: Alive

In timeline date: September 1, 2015

Primary Polling:

D
Julian Castro 16% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren 15% (even)
Cory Booker 14% (+1)
Sherrod Brown 13% (-1)
Xavier Becerra 6% (+2)
Tim Kaine 5% (-1)
Tom Vilsack 4% (even)
James Stavridis 4% (+1)
John Hickenlooper 2% (even)
Tom Perez 1% (even)
Garcetti, Ryan 0%

R
Newt Gingrich 13% (+2)
Ted Cruz 11% (-1)
Chris Christie 9% (even)
John Kasich 8% (-1)
Ben Carson 8% (+2)
Rand Paul 7% (even)
Carly Fiorina 7% (+1)
Mike Pence 6% (even)
Marco Rubio 5% (+1)
Joni Ernst 5% (+1)
Sarah Palin 3% (-3)
Tim Scott 3% (-2)
Bob Corker 3% (+1)
Richard Burr 2% (even)
Jeff Sessions 2% (+1)
Scott Brown 1% (-1)
Mary Fallin 1% (even)
Michael Flynn 1% (+1)
Tom Cotton 0%

Primary Results: None yet

General Election Polling:

Generic D 44% (even)
Generic R 43% (-2)

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks.

[anthonyjg]

Have all the candidates featured in the polls announced their candidacy?

[Wells]

Have all the candidates featured in the polls announced their candidacy?

No. None have yet. The first update in which two announce their non-candidacy and five announce their candidacy is coming shortly.

[Wells]

It was early in March when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got up in front of a huge crowd to make an announcement: she wasn’t running for president. This sent shock waves through the press, but she slipped out of the public eye and couldn’t be contacted by any reporters. Every other Democratic politician wasn’t so lucky. In the week after the announcement, Elizabeth Warren’s phone was ringing off the hook and she couldn’t go out in public without being asked if she was running. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan found large fanbases of women standing outside their houses. Joe Biden was asked no less than fifty times. Terry McAuliffe lost his temper at a press conference, but caught it again just in time. Kamala Harris was the first to outright deny the speculation. Warren finally said that she wasn’t planning to, but many thought that it was just to shut everyone up. Cory Booker was the first to announce his campaign on April 5, and Tom Vilsack followed on April 7. On April 10, Democratic primary polls showed:

Joe Biden 35% (+14)
Cory Booker 16%
Elizabeth Warren 12% (even)
Tom Vilsack 9%
Mark Warner 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand 5%
Tim Kaine 3%
Sherrod Brown 2%
Franken, McCaskill, and Castro 0%

Early front runner Jeb Bush announced he was not running not long after Clinton, and the establishment began hunting for a replacement. Ted Cruz announced his campaign on April 6, but he just wasn’t that guy. Jeff Sessions launched his bid four days later, but he wasn’t right either. That’s when the Kochs had an idea: they began to court Rubio for the nod. He announced on the 13th. Polls:

Marco Rubio 14% (+9)
Rand Paul 13% (-1)
Chris Christie 13% (+1)
Sarah Palin 11% (+2)
Mike Pence 10% (+1)
Ted Cruz 10% (+5)
Jeff Sessions 8%
Bob Corker 5%
Rob Portman 4%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Ben Carson 1%
Haley, Jindal (-1), Perry 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks.

[LLR]

So far, I support Booker

[Heisenberg]

Very interesting. I had always wondered how a decent-sized Democratic field would play out in 2016. It would have been hilarious if Shaheen or Hassan had run, they'd do REALLY well in New Hampshire. Good luck, it should be a good one! Not quite sure yet on which Republican I'd support.

[Wells]

As April progressed, more candidates announced their candidacy. On the Democratic side, Sherrod Brown, John Hickenlooper, James Stavridis, Eric Garcetti, and Tom Perez all announced their candidacy. Elizabeth Warren mentioned in an interview on the 25th that she was still open to a run and Biden announced that he was waiting to make a decision. Julian Castro formed an exploratory committee and the news coverage was all about him for a few days. Tim Ryan was the most recent candidate to announce on May 7. Polls:

Joe Biden 32% (-3)
Julian Castro 13% (+13)
Cory Booker 12% (-4)
Elizabeth Warren 11% (-1)
Sherrod Brown 11% (+9)
Tom Vilsack 7% (-2)
Tim Kaine 3% (even)
John Hickenlooper 1%
Tom Perez 1%
Stavridis, Garcetti, Ryan 0%

Marco Rubio made a gaffe about ISIS in April which sparked a flurry of media coverage but didn’t affect his standing with voters too much. Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Cory Gardner, Bob Corker, Scott Brown, and Scott Walker announced their candidacy. Michael Flynn, Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson, Sarah Palin, Tim Scott, Tom Cotton, and Jan Brewer stirred speculation on possible runs. Polls:

Marco Rubio 13% (-1)
Chris Christie 12% (-1)
Rand Paul 12% (-1)
Ted Cruz 10% (even)
Sarah Palin 8% (-3)
Cory Gardner 7%
Scott Walker 7%
Bob Corker 6% (+1)
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Jeff Sessions 5% (-3)
Scott Brown 4%
Mike Pence 3% (-7)
Tim Scott 1%
Tom Cotton 1%
Brewer, Carson, Fiorina, Flynn 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks. Should Donald Trump run? I just want to see what you guys think, I might not follow it.

[UWS]

To answer your question, I don't think Donald Trump should run. You see the damage he's actually doing to his party. In addition, it's good to see alternative scenarios and their consequences.

[Wells]

With most of the candidates out of the way, I can now focus on actual events. Cory Booker became the favorite of liberal donors early on and the fundraising numbers for April and May showed he had raised twice as much as his closest competitors. Elizabeth Warren inched nearer to a run, with Senator Bernie Sanders saying he would endorse her if she ran. While she was on the fence, many of her potential supporters were moving to Sherrod Brown instead. Tim Kaine announced his candidacy in late May. Joe Biden held a wide lead despite not beginning a campaign (largely due to name recognition and constant speculation) and Hickenlooper gained traction among moderate Democrats at the expense of Vilsack.

Joe Biden 31% (-1)
Sherrod Brown 12% (+1)
Julian Castro 11% (-2)
Cory Booker 10% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren 10% (-1)
John Hickenlooper 5% (+4)
Tim Kaine 4% (+1)
Tom Vilsack 3% (-3)
Tom Perez 1% (even)
Stavridis, Garcetti, Ryan 0%

Chris Christie made a controversial remark about the death penalty, saying that we should use it “a lot” more. Rubio criticized the remark, “I think we are using it at just the right amount right now.” (Rubio was also fundraising a Booker levels.) But most of the other candidates defended these comments. Cruz put a “Crime and Punishment” plan on his website as he defended Christie on “Good Morning America”. Michael Flynn boisterously defended the death penalty in his announcement speech. Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson, and Tom Cotton brought it up in their announcement speeches, too. Carly Fiorina and John Kasich also announced their candidacies.

Chris Christie 15% (+3)
Rand Paul 11% (-1)
Ted Cruz 11% (+1)
Marco Rubio 9% (-4)
Scott Walker 8% (+1)
Rudy Giuliani 8% (+2)
Sarah Palin 7% (-1)
Bob Corker 6% (even)
Cory Gardner 5% (-2)
Mike Pence 4% (+1)
Jeff Sessions 3% (-2)
Tom Cotton 3% (+2)
Scott Brown 2% (-2)
John Kasich 2%
Michael Flynn 1% (+1)
Brewer, Carson, Fiorina, Scott 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks.

[LLR]

Oh no, a Christie surge!? I'm terrified

[Wells]

When Beau Biden died, all the Democratic candidates and potential contenders raced to see who could come up with the most sympathetic Facebook post/tweet/three sentences in a speech. But Joe Biden’s statement that he was “leaning on no” for a presidential run sent lots of shockwaves through the political world. The top two Democratic contenders were both apparently turning down runs. Julian Castro almost immediately announced he was running. This made the press giddy. Xavier Becerra quietly announced his run in late June, too.

Joe Biden 21% (-10)
Julian Castro 19% (+8)
Sherrod Brown 13% (+1)
Cory Booker 10% (even)
Elizabeth Warren 9% (-1)
John Hickenlooper 7% (+1)
Tim Kaine 6% (+2)
Xavier Becerra 2%
Tom Vilsack 1% (-2)
Perez, Stavridis, Garcetti, Ryan 0%

The Republican field grew even larger as Mike Pence announced his candidacy, but his announcement was overshadowed by New Gingrich’s, who said this was his “last chance”. Marco Rubio came under fire when he said that Gingrich’s last chance was four years ago along with some other things, which was interpreted by some to be ageist. Rubio quickly defended his comments, saying they were “definitely not” ageism. Rand Paul came under fire for some of his less conservative positions, especially on the Confederate flag and gay marriage. Ted Cruz and Mike Pence gained points for their social conservatism on LGBT issues and gun rights in light of recent events. Jan Brewer jumped into the race on June 20.

Chris Christie 15% (even)
Ted Cruz 12% (+1)
Newt Gingrich 8%
Scott Walker 7% (-1)
Rand Paul 7% (-4)
Marco Rubio 7% (-2)
Rudy Giuliani 6% (-2)
Mike Pence 6% (+2)
Bob Corker 5% (-1)
Sarah Palin 4% (-3)
Cory Gardner 4% (-1)
Jeff Sessions 3% (even)
Tom Cotton 2% (-1)
Scott Brown 2% (even)
John Kasich 2% (even)
Jan Brewer 1% (+1)
Carson, Fiorina, Flynn, Scott 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks.

[Kingpoleon]

Stavridis ran? Aw... He's not doing too good.

[Deblano]

I guess Gingrich could not let go his dreams of building a moon colony by 2020....

[Wells]

Warren silently inched closer to a run, but as she wasn’t in the race yet, Brown was the candidate of the liberal wing of the party. Hickenlooper lost momentum as his comments about the situation in Greece were criticized. Castro was on the receiving end of many attacks from his opponents that he was inexperienced. Biden moved even further away from a run, and the announcement on his final decision would be coming later in July. Stavridis gained some grassroots support.

Julian Castro 17% (-2)
Sherrod Brown 16% (+3)
Joe Biden 15% (-6)
Cory Booker 11% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren 9% (even)
Tim Kaine 5% (-1)
John Hickenlooper 4% (-3)
Xavier Becerra 4% (+2)
Tom Vilsack 2% (+1)
Tom Perez 1% (+1)
James Stavridis 1% (+1)
Garcetti, Ryan 0%

Religious conservatives received a boost in the polls following recent events involving some cake. Newt Gingrich travelled across the country, making headlines and shaking thousands of hands. His rallie were the largest of any candidate running for the nomination. Marco Rubio received some more funding and started to stay on script more, coming up with detailed policy. Meanwhile, Christie was on the receiving end of some very negative op-eds and investigative articles. Tim Scott, Mary Fallin, Joni Ernst, and Richard Burr announced their candidacies in early July.

Ted Cruz 12% (even)
Chris Christie 11% (-4)
Newt Gingrich 9% (+1)
Rand Paul 8% (+1)
Scott Walker 8% (+1)
Marco Rubio 7% (even)
Mike Pence 5% (-1)
Rudy Giuliani 4% (-2)
Joni Ernst 4%
Bob Corker 3% (-2)
Jeff Sessions 3% (even)
Tim Scott 3% (+3)
Sarah Palin 2% (-2)
Scott Brown 2% (even)
Cory Gardner 1% (-3)
Tom Cotton 1% (-1)
John Kasich 1% (-1)
Jan Brewer 1% (even)
Mary Fallin 1%
Burr, Carson, Fiorina, Flynn 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks.

[LLR]

Why is Carson so unsuccessful in this universe?

[Wells]

Why is Carson so unsuccessful in this universe?

Because he is receiving very little media coverage compared to the other candidates. But it's only July, a lot can change in six and a half months.

[Wells]

Elizabeth Warren finally announced her run on the same day Joe Biden announced his not running. This caused her to surge in the polls and some Sherrod Brown supporters to move to her. Tom Vilsack appealed to Independents and Republicans in New Hampshire, which has an open primary, telling them that the Democratic Party was becoming too liberal and that it needed to be changed, starting, of course, with his nomination.

Julian Castro 17% (even)
Elizabeth Warren 16% (+7)
Cory Booker 13% (+2)
Sherrod Brown 11% (-5)
Tim Kaine 5% (even)
Xavier Becerra 5% (+1)
Tom Vilsack 4% (+2)
John Hickenlooper 3% (-1)
James Stavridis 2% (+1)
Tom Perez 1% (even)
Garcetti, Ryan 0%

Carly Fiorina was the first to comment on the breaking video of Planned Parenthood employees doing what she called “unspeakable things”, and she made the rounds on all the talk shows. Pence and Carson profited off of their responses, too. Ted Cruz received praise for a policy speech that promised a “new era of conservatism.” Kasich promised a new era for America the next day. Rubio made another gaffe while attacking Cruz and Kasich’s speeches. The Kochs began doubting him. But they all were swiftly overshadowed by Palin’s surprise announcement to jump into the race one week before the debate. She received a flurry of media coverage, was called a “joke” and a “clown”, but her poll numbers seemed to shoot up almost immediately after. It was enough to put her into a debate. The following poll numbers are the qualifying numbers for the debate. The top ten will be in the real debate (on FOX), the next ten will be in the JV club debate club team (also on FOX), any others will get a town hall (on C-Span 3). (There are a lot of candidates in this TL. . . but then again there were a lot of candidates in real life).

Real Debate
Ted Cruz 12% (-1)
Newt Gingrich 9% (even)
Chris Christie 8% (-3)
Rand Paul 7% (-1)
Sarah Palin 6% (+4)
John Kasich 6% (+5)
Rudy Giuliani 5% (+1)
Marco Rubio 5% (-2)
Mike Pence 5% (even)
Jeff Sessions 5% (+2)

JV Debate Club
Scott Walker 4% (-4)
Joni Ernst 3% (-1)
Bob Corker 3% (even)
Carly Fiorina 3% (+3)
Tim Scott 2% (-1)
Mary Fallin 2% (+1)
Ben Carson 2% (+2)
Scott Brown 1% (-1)
Tom Cotton 1% (+1)
Richard Burr 1% (+1)

C-Span 3 Town Hall
Brewer, Flynn, Gardner 0%

Also, please leave feedback or else I won't update the timeline. Thanks. Who do you support so far and who do you think will win the debates and town hall?

[Heisenberg]

Wow, what an insanely crowded Republican field. Bigger than the one IRL.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, I know Palin won't win any debates on the GOP side...

How are Giuliani and Gingrich polling so high, anyways... and could we see fundraising reports for the candidates please?

[Wells]

How are Giuliani and Gingrich polling so high, anyways... and could we see fundraising reports for the candidates please?

Sure you can. (And Giuliani and Gingrich are polling really high based on memories of past elections.)

Democratic fundraising numbers for Quarter 2, 2015 (including PACs).

1) Cory Booker raised $48,375,241, spent $5,143,659, cash on hand $51,547,843.
2) Julian Castro raised $29,923,195, spent $11,432,997, cash on hand $21,233,945.
3) Sherrod Brown raised $24,966,428, spent $6,815,337, cash on hand $19,991,236.
4) Tim Kaine raised $8,768,494, spent $2,227,491, cash on hand $7,001,638.
5) Tom Vilsack raised 6,581,398, spent $589,275, cash on hand $5,999,045.

I'll only be doing the top five for each. Republican fundraising numbers for Quarter 2, 2015 (including PACs).

1) Marco Rubio raised $66,826,577, spent $13,956,553, cash on hand $73,782,365.
2) Chris Christie raised $35,495,482, spent $6,785,069, cash on hand $30,196,542.
3) Ted Cruz raised $29,469,852, spent $8,037,554, cash on hand $23,568,761.
4) Rand Paul raised $21,532,728, spent $1,094,754, cash on hand $24,987,168.
5) Mike Pence raised $10,326,840, spent $3,105,704, cash on hand $7,127,299.

While we're at it, let's do Democratic superdelegate numbers as of August 1, too.

1) Cory Booker 58
2) Elizabeth Warren 39
3) Julian Castro 24
4) Sherrod Brown 22
5) Tim Kaine 11

The rest all have single digits.

[Wells]

FIRST REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, AUGUST 6

The C-Span 3 Town Hall was watched by 0.1 million people according to Nielsen. The most interesting things about it were Jan Brewer dropping out onstage and Michael Flynn mentioning how awful Obama was in response to every question.

The Underdog Debate (as Fox called it), was slightly more interesting than the town hall. It was watched by 1.4 million people. Tim Scott and Carly Fiorina gave the strongest answers, while Ben Carson seemed quiet(er than usual) and Burr laid out detailed policy. The rest didn’t seem to matter.

The Big Debate showed Christie and Kasich in command of the stage. Rand Paul tried to appear as a pure conservative and libertarian at the same time and was called out repeatedly by Gingrich, who seemed to be an expert at one-liners perfect for the debate summaries on the next morning’s news. Sarah Palin made it entertaining, but Giuliani managed to steal her thunder with gaffe after gaffe. He repeated his favorite line about how no terrorist attacks occurred in America until Obama and every other candidate on stage tried to yell over each other about how 9/11 happened while he was the mayor of New York City (Rubio got to rebut it, but it sounded extremely rehearsed). Rubio was the most policy-oriented, but Kasich (and occasionally Paul or Pence) pointed out little things missing or wrong in the details. Sessions received the most applause, but was the least interesting person in the room. Cruz did just well enough so that his lead was (mostly) safe. 9.9 million people watched the debate.

Post-Debate Poll

Ted Cruz 12% (even)
Newt Gingrich 11% (+2)
Chris Christie 11% (+3)
John Kasich 10% (+4)
Sarah Palin 7% (+1)
Carly Fiorina 7% (+4)
Rand Paul 6% (-1)
Marco Rubio 6% (+1)
Tim Scott 6% (+4)
Mike Pence 4% (-1)
Jeff Sessions 3% (-2)
Scott Walker 3% (-1)
Joni Ernst 3% (even)
Ben Carson 3% (+1)
Bob Corker 2% (-1)
Mary Fallin 2% (even)
Richard Burr 2% (+1)
Scott Brown 1% (even)
Cotton, Flynn, Gardner, Giuliani 0%

[Kingpoleon]

Hopefully Stavridis uses his natural charm and grace well.

[Wells]

At a famous liberal convention, numerous Democratic candidates spoke. However, members of the activist group Black Lives Matter protested Cory Booker (calling him an ‘Uncle Tom’), Elizabeth Warren (saying she was racist for claiming she had Native ancestry), and taking the microphone away from Sherrod Brown and screaming “BLACK LIVES MATTER” over and over again until they were escorted offstage. When Brown got the microphone back, he said “I agree,” and the crowd laughed. Julian Castro released a detailed education policy, which helped him gain support among the liberal wing of the party. A new poll was released that showed Brown up 7 in New Hampshire (even though it came from a questionable source) and he received some positive coverage. Another poll came out that showed Warren up 3, and a third poll showed Brown up 2 but within the margin of error.

Julian Castro 18% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren 15% (-1)
Sherrod Brown 14% (+3)
Cory Booker 13% (even)
Tim Kaine 6% (+1)
Xavier Becerra 4% (-1)
Tom Vilsack 4% (even)
James Stavridis 3% (+1)
John Hickenlooper 2% (-1)
Tom Perez 1% (even)
Garcetti, Ryan 0%

After a disastrous debate, Rudy Giuliani dropped out of the race and endorsed Sessions (which hurt him). Cory Gardner ran into trouble with funding and had to cut his Iowa staff down to two. Not making it into the debates had hurt him. Walker made a gaffe while attempting to praise his record as the governor of Wisconsin, accidentally implying that he had made things worse. Ben Carson doubled down on his pro-life stance, as records from his past as a surgeon came up. Rubio said that the Iraq War was a good idea and received criticism for it. With the story of Kim Davis receiving national attention, Pence and Cruz saw chances to improve among their base of evangelicals (Gardner didn’t have enough funds). Yet for some reason they found her hard to reach for an endorsement. Ted Cruz attacked the Iran deal, Planned Parenthood, and the liberal media and gained some more support. Rand Paul pleased his base by attacking the national debt. After another Rubio gaffe, the Koch’s left him to search for another candidate. They were looking at Sessions until Giuliani endorsed him. Carson slowly rose in Iowa polls (though Cruz still dominated) and gained some more media attention. After a few more gaffes on immigration and jobs, Scott Walker dropped out and endorsed Mike Pence.

Ted Cruz 12% (even)
Newt Gingrich 11% (even)
Chris Christie 9% (-2)
John Kasich 9% (-1)
Rand Paul 7% (+1)
Sarah Palin 6% (-1)
Carly Fiorina 6% (-1)
Mike Pence 6% (+2)
Ben Carson 6% (+3)
Tim Scott 5% (-1)
Marco Rubio 4% (-2)
Joni Ernst 4% (+1)
Bob Corker 2% (even)
Richard Burr 2% (even)
Scott Brown 2% (+1)
Jeff Sessions 1% (-2)
Mary Fallin 1% (-1)
Cotton, Flynn, Gardner 0%

[Wells]

Elizabeth Warren publicly announced support or a $15 minimum wage in a speech early September, which started a discussion on the subject and improved her standing among progressives. When the Iran deal was signed, every Democratic candidate came out in favor of it. Warren led in a new New Hampshire poll, beating Brown by 7 and Booker by 8. Cory Booker released an education policy which was praised as pragmatic, but liberals didn’t think it was as special as Castro’s or Warren’s. The Wall Street Journal released a story about the expenses Warren’s and Brown’s plans, which labelled them as extremely expensive. They both defended them on talk shows and in speeches. Meanwhile, Cory Booker delivered a speech on foreign policy which was universally acclaimed.

Julian Castro 16% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren 15% (even)
Cory Booker 14% (+1)
Sherrod Brown 13% (-1)
Xavier Becerra 6% (+2)
Tim Kaine 5% (-1)
Tom Vilsack 4% (even)
James Stavridis 4% (+1)
John Hickenlooper 2% (even)
Tom Perez 1% (even)
Garcetti, Ryan 0%

Michael Flynn made some publicity by attacking Obama’s name change of Mount McKinley (to Denali), but most of it was negative. Sarah Palin implied Obama was Muslim in one of her speeches, and whether or not she meant to, she was ridiculed and attacked. Cory Gardner dropped out after troubles with fundraising and poll numbers. Marco Rubio’s poll numbers fell, and his fundraising dried up after other big donors left him. When the Iran deal was signed, every single Republican came out against it, especially Michael Flynn. A new New Hampshire poll showed Gingrich leading there, with Christie not far behind. Chris Christie promised huge tax cuts. However, the biggest story was Kim Davis’s surprise endorsement of Newt Gingrich, which shocked everybody, especially Ted Cruz. He made a gaffe about Kim Davis the next day. Ben Carson and Joni Ernst had a small feud on Twitter. Polls are the qualifying polls for the next debate on CNN:

Real Debate:
Newt Gingrich 13% (+2)
Ted Cruz 11% (-1)
Chris Christie 9% (even)
John Kasich 8% (-1)
Ben Carson 8% (+2)
Rand Paul 7% (even)
Carly Fiorina 7% (+1)
Mike Pence 6% (even)
Marco Rubio 5% (+1)
Joni Ernst 5% (+1)

JV Debate Club Team:
Sarah Palin 3% (-3)
Tim Scott 3% (-2)
Bob Corker 3% (+1)
Richard Burr 2% (even)
Jeff Sessions 2% (+1)
Scott Brown 1% (-1)
Mary Fallin 1% (even)
Michael Flynn 1% (+1)
Tom Cotton 0%

[Kingpoleon]

Stavridis opposed the Iran Deal. IIRC, that was because of the thirty day warning and potential lack of strong enough enforcement.