The "Blue firewall", 1992-2012, in 2016:
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 242
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 0
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 1
Effective tie (white) 0
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 0
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 0
Strong Trump (60% saturation) 0
Add the states that have gone once for any Republican nominee since 1992 (IA, NH, NM):
(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 245
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 5
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 1
Effective tie (white) 6
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 0
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 0
Strong Trump (60% saturation) 0
Add Colorado and Virginia, which so far show decisive leads for Clinton:
(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 5
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 1
Effective tie (white) 6
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 0
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 0
Strong Trump (60% saturation) 0
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.
