WaPost, VA: Clinton +14 in two-way, +11 in four-way
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  WaPost, VA: Clinton +14 in two-way, +11 in four-way
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Author Topic: WaPost, VA: Clinton +14 in two-way, +11 in four-way  (Read 3655 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 16, 2016, 06:20:46 AM »
« edited: August 16, 2016, 04:34:58 PM by Interlocutor »

Virginia, Aug. 11-14

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
IDK/Other: 9%

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 34%
Johnson: 11%
IDK/Other: 6%
Stein: 4%

888 Registered voters, 4.5 MoE

Hillary dominating everywhere except SW Virginia (Trump 58-32)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-unpopularity-fuels-wide-lead-for-clinton-in-new-virginia-poll/2016/08/15/ea0e1540-6307-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html


EDIT: Since the numbers above don't seem to matter as much...

Among Likely Voters: Clinton leads drop to +8/+7

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 43%

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 3%
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 06:22:53 AM »

Safe D.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 06:59:20 AM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 07:02:07 AM »

The "Blue firewall", 1992-2012, in 2016:




Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 242
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     0
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       0
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

Add the states that have gone once for any Republican nominee since 1992 (IA, NH, NM):



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 245
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

Add Colorado and Virginia, which so far show decisive leads for Clinton:



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 07:45:32 AM »

Brutal.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 07:52:45 AM »

Virginia living up to its state motto.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 08:27:39 AM »

Among Likely Voters: Clinton leads drop to +8/+7

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 43%

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 3%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 08:31:31 AM »

I'll be very interested in seeing if the LV/RV trend from 2012 repeats where key Dem demographics and screened out.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 08:39:23 AM »

Sic semper tyrannis
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 08:45:48 AM »

68-23....DC suburbs you have my heart. 

The RV/LV split is kinda disappointing.  I've noticed that RV/LV split favors Clinton in largely white states, which makes sense because she does much better with whites with a college degree, who vote at a higher rate. 

Now Virginia is a diverse state, with minority voters that traditionally vote at lower rates, and thus the Republican should be expected to have the LV advantage.  But given that Virginia is a state where Clinton's white support is coming very heavily from college educated voters, I'd hope that the split would be a wash.

It's been an interesting dynamic in this election.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 08:46:36 AM »

This is brutal. Especially considering the fact that Obama won by close margins and W actually carried the state twice. 2012: Toss-up. 2016: Safe D.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 09:18:36 AM »

So Clinton +7, when 3rd parties are included and likely voters screened. A 7 point lead sounds about right.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 09:35:42 AM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 09:39:33 AM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.

lol
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 09:47:18 AM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.

I know it’s hard to watch your hero Mr. Drumpf melting down… but Hillary is ahead in all VA polls by decent margins.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 09:57:43 AM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.
Hems only down 7! No problem at all!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2016, 10:21:00 AM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.

I know it’s hard to watch your hero Mr. Drumpf melting down… but Hillary is ahead in all VA polls by decent margins.
This has nothing to do with Trump "melting down." This has everything to do with intellectual honesty. Likely voters are likely to vote. Some registered voters sit out.

The ComPost would rather have the narrative that Trump is down double-digits in Virginia, so they push this RV nonsense.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2016, 10:21:39 AM »

Even the LV numbers suggest Trump is pretty much SOL.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2016, 10:53:02 AM »

Likely voter numbers should take precedent (a smaller but still very solid Clinton lead)
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2016, 02:16:21 PM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.
Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.

Either way (registered or likely voter results) .... the orange-haired clown is going to have a very hard time trying to turn-around Virginia. Almost impossible, IMO.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2016, 03:15:46 PM »

Typical lies and subterfuge from the Washington Post, who has the LV numbers, but instead decides to post RV numbers to make the toplline look more horrendous than it usually is.

Disgraceful. Dishonest and typical of the left-wing pro-Clinton press.

You mad, bro?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2016, 03:19:08 PM »

Looks like we will never see the Old Dominion colored red on a map again...

Sure we will. It's just that those particular maps will be Atlas maps. Wink
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2016, 04:10:38 PM »

Looks like we will never see the Old Dominion colored red on a map again...

Sure we will. It's just that those particular maps will be Atlas maps. Wink

Some day the rest of the world will see sense and swap colors to match us.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2016, 04:42:02 PM »

The other thing that looks interesting in this poll, is that it shows Hillary completing blowing Trump out in the Tidewaters, and solid lead in the Richmond area....

I know crosstabs and MOEs, but it appears clear that Hillary's massive lead in VA is more than just dominating in NOVA and holding her own in the DC Exurbs.

Which is also similar to the regional crosstabs in the Marist poll the other day.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2016, 06:22:45 PM »

This was an easy call a long time ago. Even though VA is trending D it could still be a swing state with the right type of R candidate. There is no way Trump will come close to matching Romney in VA suburbs and other swing areas of the state. It's an easy safe D this year because of Trump. What type of voter would even be a 2012 Obama voter/2016 Trump voter here?
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