What is the anti-bellwether state?
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  What is the anti-bellwether state?
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Author Topic: What is the anti-bellwether state?  (Read 2350 times)
twenty42
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« on: August 14, 2016, 08:32:50 PM »

We talk a lot about bellwethers...states that most often vote for the winning candidate and reflect most the country as a whole. Florida, Ohio, and Nevada are big ones.

I'd like to explore the inverse of this phenomenon...which state or states is/are most inaccurate? It's a tougher science, but I'd say Georgia off the top of my head. It's gotten eight out of the last 16 elections wrong since 1952.
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buritobr
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 08:41:53 PM »

Mississippi between 1948 and 1968: didn't vote for the winner in every election of this period

Washington between 1960 and 1988: voted for the winner only in the landslides. Maine was almost like Washington, but voted for Bush in 1988.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 09:40:09 PM »

If we're counting primaries as well, Oklahoma is a great one.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 05:02:31 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2016, 05:05:45 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

We talk a lot about bellwethers...states that most often vote for the winning candidate and reflect most the country as a whole. Florida, Ohio, and Nevada are big ones.

I'd like to explore the inverse of this phenomenon...which state or states is/are most inaccurate? It's a tougher science, but I'd say Georgia off the top of my head. It's gotten eight out of the last 16 elections wrong since 1952.

AL & MS also got 8 out of 16 wrong in that time period.

You could technically give AL the title and say 9 if you count the state primary and who the people actually elected as electors, since that was a public, statewide vote. Because of that, Kennedy won the state but lost to Byrd in EVs 6-5.

You could also technically give MS the title and say 9 if you count the "unpledged" plurality in 1960.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 07:24:51 PM »

Iowa.

Ford, 1976

Dukakis, 1988

Below national average for Nixon in 1972.

Dumped incumbent GOP Senator in 1984 Reagan landslide.

Most likely Democratic state to go Republican.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2020, 05:36:39 PM »

Iowa.

Ford, 1976

Dukakis, 1988

Below national average for Nixon in 1972.

Dumped incumbent GOP Senator in 1984 Reagan landslide.

Most likely Democratic state to go Republican.
Interestingly, Iowa voted within a point of 2 of the national average (and with the PV winner every time) in each election from 1992-2012, before turning red in 2016.
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Samof94
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2020, 07:09:58 AM »

Minnesota went for Mondale
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