CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA  (Read 4714 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 14, 2016, 09:30:41 AM »



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/14/cbs-battleground-florida-georgia-new-hampshire
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 09:32:00 AM »

Clinton +5 in FL is significant
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 09:32:37 AM »

Yeah I didn't expect a tie or lead for Hillary in GA, but being up 5 in FL is even better.
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riceowl
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2016, 09:36:19 AM »

NH: Women who are not currently supporting Trump - Would you consider voting for Trump?

No - 91%
Maybe - 9%
Yes - 0%
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2016, 09:39:27 AM »

You know things are going good when Trump +4 in GA is a "bad" poll.  Overall a solid set of numbers for Clinton.

I love how CBS aired those numbers from angry NH women about how they're never ever voting for Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2016, 09:42:35 AM »

New Hampshire is 99.9% gone for Trump
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2016, 09:43:59 AM »

FL is quite strong for Hillary, NH about where everyone expected and GA better for Trump than I would have thought.

fully online polls with an R lean this cycle that usually underestimated POC support for Clinton.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2016, 09:48:02 AM »

Those numbers are in line with a 7-9% Clinton-lead nationally.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2016, 10:00:09 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2016, 10:17:39 AM by ProudModerate2 »

The numbers in Florida are very promising.
Agree that NH is at least Likely at this point, and will not fall lower than Lean by Nov. This will not be a toss-up state, but will be guaranteed win for Hillary.
GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2016, 10:00:41 AM »

One thing that is important... with LV screens in place the Johnson/Stein numbers drop.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2016, 10:06:48 AM »

GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2016, 10:26:13 AM »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2016, 10:45:10 AM »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.

Out of play seems a little strong to me. These are good numbers for HRC, no doubt - but she's also leading by like 7 points or so nationally. If the race was to tighten after the debate or with some kind of economic trouble, NH could be swingin' again.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2016, 10:56:57 AM »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.

Out of play seems a little strong to me. These are good numbers for HRC, no doubt - but she's also leading by like 7 points or so nationally. If the race was to tighten after the debate or with some kind of economic trouble, NH could be swingin' again.

"NH: Women who are not currently supporting Trump - Would you consider voting for Trump?

No - 91%
Maybe - 9%
Yes - 0%"

No. It's gone.
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LLR
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2016, 11:07:30 AM »

Maybe if Clinton killed a girl on live TV and said that women shouldn't be allowed to vote, Trump would only lose NH by 2.

We have reached peak TN Volunteer, folks.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2016, 11:07:38 AM »

GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.

I want to agree, but the 50% runoff threshold could severely hurt Dem downballot progress there.  Let's see if McMullin gets on the AZ ballot.  If he does, I think AZ becomes the better Clinton target.  If not, invest in AZ.

Put that way—I agree that AZ is a better target than GA. Certainly its Republican statewide officials sound more scared than Georgia's already! I'd say to fund both, but I don't know if the Clinton campaign can do that.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2016, 11:24:47 AM »

Haha, who's doing the names for the poll tracker?  "Deep blue granite state" love it
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2016, 12:10:12 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2016, 12:12:22 PM by ProudModerate2 »

From the (approx.) 7 most widely known media outlets to track the presidential race, The Cook Political Report is the last to still show NH as "toss-up."
I predict that by latter this week, The Cook will adjust the status to show NH at least "Lean," but possibly "Likely" for Hillary.
(Cook's status ladder = Toss-Up / Lean / Likely / Solid.)
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2016, 01:46:39 PM »

No Florida Senate poll?
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2016, 01:47:54 PM »


Seems like they only polled New Hampshire;

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2016, 01:49:58 PM »


No Sad But yet they wasted their time polling non-competitive NH Roll Eyes
Yes, I can't imagine their disappointment when they found a full 1 point gulf standing between the two candidates.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2016, 01:56:13 PM »

If these polls are correct, it doesn't appear Trump is down double digits nationally anymore.  7-8 seems more like it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2016, 02:02:56 PM »

Maybe if Clinton killed a girl on live TV and said that women shouldn't be allowed to vote, Trump would only lose NH by 2.
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LLR
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2016, 02:07:21 PM »

Haha, who's doing the names for the poll tracker?  "Deep blue granite state" love it

I'd presume TNVol, given that.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2016, 02:17:21 PM »

lol Trump being up less in Georgia than he is down in Florida is no reason to celebrate.
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