FL/NH-PPP: Clinton +3 in FL, +13 in NH
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  FL/NH-PPP: Clinton +3 in FL, +13 in NH
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Author Topic: FL/NH-PPP: Clinton +3 in FL, +13 in NH  (Read 3277 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: August 11, 2016, 11:16:23 AM »

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 37%

http://americansforresponsiblesolutions.org/files/2016/08/Polling-Memo.pdf

Polls were conducted for Americans for Responsible Solutions.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 11:17:08 AM »

NH......
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 11:19:01 AM »

We should have listened to TN when we had the chance lol.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 11:21:44 AM »

Clinton's freiwal is officially the 278 freiwal (possibly 279, not sure about ME-02.) The only Obama states Trump has a chance in are IA, OH, and FL, and it's not like he has those states in the bag, either.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 11:22:01 AM »

This polling is legit. The Senate race margins look right
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Fargobison
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 11:22:36 AM »

Numbers look consistent with other polls. That said I can't wait to hear about how fake these polls are.
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Doimper
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 11:23:06 AM »

Clinton's freiwal is officially the 278 freiwal (possibly 279, not sure about ME-02.) The only Obama states Trump has a chance in are IA, OH, and FL, and it's not like he has those states in the bag, either.

I'd add Nevada to that list. Still not enough to push him over the top, though.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 11:25:20 AM »

Looks like Kerry + VA + CO is 95% locked in
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 11:27:24 AM »

Lack of a Spanish option means you can probably add a point or 2 to Clinton in FL.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 11:28:00 AM »

Clinton's freiwal is officially the 278 freiwal (possibly 279, not sure about ME-02.) The only Obama states Trump has a chance in are IA, OH, and FL, and it's not like he has those states in the bag, either.

I'd add Nevada to that list. Still not enough to push him over the top, though.

Trump won't win Nevada, trust me. Polls always show a close race in Nevada, only for it to end up not being all that close.

^Clinton will win NH, and it might be to the left of ME-02, but not ME as a whole.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 11:28:03 AM »

I think Florida is closer to a 7 point game than 3. Hispanics are just a hard group to poll and universally bad for Trump. It probably explains why FL NV look closer in some polls than they are. If SC is close then NC is more than 1%. A lot of transplants in these sun belt states don't have landlines and are harder to poll, especially for a PPP style automated poll. No one bothers to set up a landline under age 40. NH is easier to poll bc it's not racially diverse and composed of longtime residents.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 11:29:34 AM »

It looks like NH and VA and WI (and now PA) are solidifying for Hillary--which means that there's really nothing left for Trump.

Needs to focus hard on FL and OH and IA--all of which are entirely winnable.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 11:33:40 AM »

Thanks, Castro. Tongue Also, xingkerui, this is what I mean when I say NH will vote to the left of ME this year. NH is tailor-made for Clinton. Clinton is NH personified.  NH women love the Clintons, they will turn out in record setting numbers.

Just curious what you mean by this.  I'd also like to hear your articulate theory on why NH is East Vermont now but wasn't in 2000.

Additionally, I don't think anyone on this site has questioned that Trump would almost certainly lose NH, it's just you posting about the state all the time - especially in threads that aren't about NH - gets super tiresome.  You've also made highly debatable claims like CT and IL would flip in a national election before NH.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 11:33:58 AM »

This is what the map looks like right now

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darthebearnc
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 11:35:37 AM »

Looks like Kerry + VA + CO is 95% locked in

And New Mexico Tongue
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 11:37:15 AM »

Is it head-to-head numbers?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 12:09:06 PM »

Clinton's freiwal is officially the 278 freiwal (possibly 279, not sure about ME-02.) The only Obama states Trump has a chance in are IA, OH, and FL, and it's not like he has those states in the bag, either.

I'd add Nevada to that list. Still not enough to push him over the top, though.

Trump won't win Nevada, trust me. Polls always show a close race in Nevada, only for it to end up not being all that close.

^Clinton will win NH, and it might be to the left of ME-02, but not ME as a whole.
While you are probably right about NV, I won't bank on it yet.

Clintons firewall is the 273 electoral votes she would get from securing PA, WI, MI, NH, CO and VA. Those all look rock solid for Clinton unless something dramatic happens. She doesn't need NV, IA, FL and OH, but they would be nice to win, if nothing else then to create an illusion of a large dem firewall. NC, GA and AZ are just for giggles, setting the dems up for the elections in the 20's when they likely become true swing states.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2016, 12:22:01 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2016, 12:31:58 PM by Seriously? »

PPP poll taken for a left-leaning gun control advocacy group started by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. We do know know where the Presidential questions were asked, because unlike in most PPP polls, they didn't release that information.

If they lead with the gun control stuff and went with the POTUS questions last as throw-away questions, it potentially taints the sample.

Also, RV vs. LV. PPP typically employs a LV screen.

Again, to be taken with those requisite pieces of information in mind.

For those of you that want to argue with me that this information isn't pertinent, ask yourselves what you would think about a poll conducted for the NRA.

If a poll is conducted for a third-party, they have input into the design and what gets released.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2016, 03:31:05 PM »

why is Florida always weirdly close.

I think New Hampshire is going away from Mr. Trump.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2016, 03:53:27 PM »

why is Florida always weirdly close.

I think New Hampshire is going away from Mr. Trump.

Any Florida poll that is robo calls / IVR is always closer than live calling. Probably not gauging the level of Hispanic support for Hillary that live calls pick up on. That is apparent in the PPP and Opinion Savvy polls.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2016, 03:59:18 PM »

Thanks, Castro. Tongue Also, xingkerui, this is what I mean when I say NH will vote to the left of ME this year. NH is tailor-made for Clinton. Clinton is NH personified.  NH women love the Clintons, they will turn out in record setting numbers.

Just curious what you mean by this.  I'd also like to hear your articulate theory on why NH is East Vermont now but wasn't in 2000.

Additionally, I don't think anyone on this site has questioned that Trump would almost certainly lose NH, it's just you posting about the state all the time - especially in threads that aren't about NH - gets super tiresome.  You've also made highly debatable claims like CT and IL would flip in a national election before NH.

States can change dramatically. In 2000, Bush was up consistently in NH by double digits but on election day, he only won it by a point because Gore undeperformed among female voters. Since then, the state has been trending Democratic hard and fast and it's now basically Eastern Vermont. I don't even think that the GOP has a New England problem in general (I think Maine will become much more competitive at the presidential level in the future), just a NH one. The 2012 and 2014 results should have made it obvious to everyone that NH is a lost cause for Republicans, so I don't know why people still rate this state a Tossup.

And yeah, I think Republicans have a much better chance of winning the IL Senate race than the one in NH.

You didn't answer my question of what you meant by saying Hillary is the "personification" of NH, and I very, very clearly used the word PRESIDENTIAL; this isn't about Mark Kirk, you have said before that in a national Presidential election, IL would flip before NH.  That's absurd.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2016, 04:13:13 PM »

Clinton's freiwal is officially the 278 freiwal (possibly 279, not sure about ME-02.) The only Obama states Trump has a chance in are IA, OH, and FL, and it's not like he has those states in the bag, either.

I'd add Nevada to that list. Still not enough to push him over the top, though.

Trump won't win Nevada, trust me. Polls always show a close race in Nevada, only for it to end up not being all that close.

^Clinton will win NH, and it might be to the left of ME-02, but not ME as a whole.
While you are probably right about NV, I won't bank on it yet.

Clintons firewall is the 273 electoral votes she would get from securing PA, WI, MI, NH, CO and VA. Those all look rock solid for Clinton unless something dramatic happens. She doesn't need NV, IA, FL and OH, but they would be nice to win, if nothing else then to create an illusion of a large dem firewall. NC, GA and AZ are just for giggles, setting the dems up for the elections in the 20's when they likely become true swing states.

*ahem* I believe you mean "freiwal"
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2016, 04:51:33 PM »

It seems like Bernie's endorsement helped Hillary out quite a bit in New Hampshire.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2016, 02:21:51 AM »

Thanks, Castro. Tongue Also, xingkerui, this is what I mean when I say NH will vote to the left of ME this year. NH is tailor-made for Clinton. Clinton is NH personified.  NH women love the Clintons, they will turn out in record setting numbers.

Just curious what you mean by this.  I'd also like to hear your articulate theory on why NH is East Vermont now but wasn't in 2000.

Additionally, I don't think anyone on this site has questioned that Trump would almost certainly lose NH, it's just you posting about the state all the time - especially in threads that aren't about NH - gets super tiresome.  You've also made highly debatable claims like CT and IL would flip in a national election before NH.

Could it be that Donald Trump is quite possibly the worst imaginable Republican nominee for New Hampshire? New Hampshire is the last state in New England (or for that matter to the north and east of the Potomac) to vote for a Republican nominee... but that was sixteen years ago.  New Hampshire used to be the most politically-conservative state in New England, and it may still be.

Only in 2000 could New Hampshire have decided the Presidential election, and it probably won't this year. The incumbent Republican Senator seems to be losing without having a scandal blow up on her. That's a sign that the Party of that incumbent Senator is itself having problems. 

 
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2016, 08:56:34 AM »

Live look: Ayotte running away from her problems:

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