Most likely future president in each state?

[Orser67]

Edited: The list doesn't include Clinton or Trump

Here's my list:

Alabama: Martha Roby (R)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
California: Kamala Harris (D)
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) or Cory Gardner (R)
Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Florida: Marco Rubio (R)
Georgia: One of the House Republicans?
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Raul Labrador (R)?
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth (D)?
Indiana: Mike Pence (R)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R)
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R)
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)?
Maine: Emily Cain (D)?
Maryland: Chris Van Hollen (D)?
Massachusetts: Joe Kennedy III (D)
Michigan: Justin Amash (R)
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D)
Mississippi: Steven Palazzo (R)? Tate Reeves (R)
Missouri: Jason Smith (R)?
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R)
Nevada: Dean Heller (R)
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R)
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R)
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) or Rob Portman (R)
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R)
Oregon: Kate Brown or Jeff Merkley (D)
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) or Pat Toomey (R)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: John Thune (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam or Bob Corker (R)
Texas: Ted Cruz (R)
Utah: Mike Lee (R)
Vermont: Sue Minter (D)
Virginia: Tim Kaine (D)
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wisconsin: Paul Ryan (R)
Wyoming: Liz Cheney (R)

(list edited since original post)

[Redban]

New York: Andrew Cuomo

[LLR]

New York: Andrew Cuomo

Nah, Gillibrand.

[Mr. Morden]

How are either Cuomo or Gillibrand more likely to become president than Hillary Clinton?

[Mr. Morden]

How are either Cuomo or Gillibrand more likely to become president than Hillary Clinton?

That the OP listed Gillibrand implies that "future" means all elections beyond 2016. Neither Hillary nor Trump will run after 2016 because of their ages.

I mean, Clinton wouldn't be sworn in until January 2017, which I'd count as the future.

[Orser67]

How are either Cuomo or Gillibrand more likely to become president than Hillary Clinton?

Yeah, my mistake, I should have said "not including Clinton and Trump"

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi is probably Tate Reeves.  He's young, Ruby Red, and the favorite for governor in 2019.  Could be a presidential contender in 2024 or 2028.

Not that I think its likely he becomes President, he's just the likeliest from Mississippi.

[Mike Thick]

California has no shortage of rising stars, but it's hard to see Gavin Newsom not running for President at some point once he becomes Governor.

[evergreenarbor]

Off the top of my head:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski
California: Kamala Harris
Colorado: Michael Bennet
Connecticut: Chris Murphy
Florida: Marco Rubio
Indiana: Mike Pence
Iowa: Joni Ernst
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards
Maryland: Chris Van Hollen (Sorry, O'Malley.)
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar
Nebraska: Ben Sasse
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand
Ohio: John Kasich
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey
Texas: Ted Cruz (ugh)
Utah: Mike Lee
Virginia: Tim Kaine
Washington: Patty Murray
Wisconsin: Paul Ryan

[Mr. Morden]

Massachusetts is an interesting one, as I think it depends in large part on how you rate Trump's chances of winning this year.  If he does win, then Elizabeth Warren is an obvious early frontrunner for the 2020 Democratic nomination.  But if Clinton wins this year, then Warren's earliest opportunity would be 2024, and by then she's probably too old.

Another name that hasn't been mentioned yet is Cathy McMorris Rodgers for Washington.  I think you could make a case for her being more likely than either Cantwell or Murray.  She's younger, so more elections in which she's potentially within a reasonable age range to run.  And the Democratic caucus in the Senate already has plenty of women, so not sure if either Cantwell or Murray stand out in any way.

Whereas on the GOP side, if, say, Clinton wins this year as expected, and we have a male 2020 GOP nominee who decides that it's advantageous for him to pick a woman as his running mate....well, CMR might not be at the top of the list, but she'd be on the list.  There are only so many options for Republican women that would make any sense for VP.

[Orser67]

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
Ohio: John Kasich

I just can't see these people winning their party's primary, mostly due to ideological differences.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Alabama: Bradley Bryne/Scott Beason
Alaska: Dan Sullivan/Bill Walker
Arizona: Doug Ducey
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
California: Kamala Harris
Colorado: Cory Gardner/John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Chris Murphy
Delaware: Chris Coons
Florida: Marco Rubio (
Georgia: Jason Carter
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Raul Labrador
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Indiana: Mike Pence
Iowa: Joni Ernst
Kansas: Jerry Moran
Kentucky: Rand Paul
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy
Maine: Susan Collins
Maryland: Chris Van Hollen
Massachusetts: Joe Kennedy III/Charlie Baker
Michigan: Justin Amash
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar
Mississippi: Haley Barbour
Missouri: Jay Nixon
Montana: Ryan Zinke
Nebraska: Ben Sasse
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Jersey: Cory Booker Chris Christie
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand
North Carolina: Thom Tillis
North Dakota: John Hoeven
Ohio: Sherrod Brown or Kasich
Oklahoma: James Lankford
Oregon: Kate Brown
Pennsylvania:  Pat Toomey
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: John Thune
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Ted Cruz
Utah: Mike Lee
Vermont: Bernie Sanders
Virginia: Tim Kaine
Washington: Maria Cantwell
West Virginia: Jim Justice
Wisconsin: Paul Ryan
Wyoming: Liz Cheney

[RogueBeaver]

Arizona: Martha McSally
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
California: Kamala Harris
Colorado: Cory Gardner
Delaware: Chris Coons
Florida: Marco Rubio
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth
Iowa: Joni Ernst
Kentucky: Matt Bevin
Maryland: Chris Van Hollen
Massachusetts: Seth Moulton
Michigan: Justin Amash
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar
Missouri: Eric Greitens?
Nebraska: Ben Sasse
Nevada: Adam Laxalt
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand
Ohio: John Kasich
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
Texas: Ted Cruz
Utah: Mike Lee
Virginia: Tim Kaine
Wisconsin: Paul Ryan

[Orser67]

Another name that hasn't been mentioned yet is Cathy McMorris Rodgers for Washington.  I think you could make a case for her being more likely than either Cantwell or Murray.  She's younger, so more elections in which she's potentially within a reasonable age range to run.  And the Democratic caucus in the Senate already has plenty of women, so not sure if either Cantwell or Murray stand out in any way.

I thought about her before, but now I think you are probably right. My main issue with her is that I think she pretty much either has to become VP or Speaker before becoming president, since I don't think she can jump directly from the House and she doesn't have a path to the Senate or governorship (unless of course Eastern Washington secedes from the rest of the state). But I think you're probably right, Cantwell really doesn't stand out at all, and Murray might become Senate Majority Leader one day but I can't see her running for president.

[Figueira]

For Massachusetts, I might have to go with Moulton.

For Maine, maybe Hannah Pingree if she gets back into politics?

For New Hampshire, I'm unsure. I think Hassan will ultimately win this Senate race (thus probably disqualifying Ayotte), but I'm not sure if she's the type to run for President.

The problem with McMorris Rodgers is that, as I understand it, she has no chance of getting elected statewide in WA due to geographic barriers (at least that's what d32123 said--would any Washingtonians like to confirm or deny that?). I suppose she could become speaker at some point and pull a Gingrich, but it seems unlikely to me. I'd rate Cantwell as more likely than her.

The problem with Raimondo is that I can't see her winning a nationwide Democratic nomination. I think a future Republican governor would be more likely than her, but I'm not sure who that would be.

[evergreenarbor]

The problem with McMorris Rodgers is that, as I understand it, she has no chance of getting elected statewide in WA due to geographic barriers (at least that's what d32123 said--would any Washingtonians like to confirm or deny that?). I suppose she could become speaker at some point and pull a Gingrich, but it seems unlikely to me. I'd rate Cantwell as more likely than her.

McMorris Rodgers almost certainly can't win a Senate or gubernatorial race in Washington. I agree that she could definitely become Speaker at some point.

[Mr. Morden]

See, I think there's a chance that CMR could be on the list for VP in 2020 or 2024 even without having made it to Speaker.  Again, there are only so many qualified women who make any sense for VP on the Republican side, so if the presidential nominee is looking for a woman, she would be possible.  She's been in the leadership, so I don't see her as being any less qualified than Ryan was in 2012.