Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much?

[diptheriadan]

Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much?

[Mr. Smith]

Only in the sense that the next generation will inevitably be more liberal, barring the great slideback of Nixon/Reagan which put X'ers slightly rightwards of Boomers.

[Redban]

It is a question of race and ethnicity.

Among non-Hispanic whites, millennials actually break evenly among conservative and liberals (Romney beat Obama with young whites by 7%).  The problem, as usual, is that nearly half of all millennials are non-whites (whereas 80% of Baby Boomers are white), and non-whites have been staunch liberals since we've began recording these statistics and polls.

Therefore, if millennials are to be conservative, then something must happen to change the political views of non-whites.

[hopper]

It is a question of race and ethnicity.

Among non-Hispanic whites, millennials actually break evenly among conservative and liberals (Romney beat Obama with young whites by 7%).  The problem, as usual, is that nearly half of all millennials are non-whites (whereas 80% of Baby Boomers are white), and non-whites have been staunch liberals since we've began recording these statistics and polls.

Therefore, if millennials are to be conservative, then something must happen to change the political views of non-whites.

I don't know about that since most Millenials are slightly left of center per Pew Research.  Just look at the group "Next Generation Left" that Pew had in their "Political Typlogy Series" if you will a couple years ago.

 

[RaphaelDLG]

Yes, and by about tree-fiddy.

[Blue3]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

[Figueira]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

[Virginiá]

Opinions can change of certain issues, depending on each person's life experiences, but overall the "people get more conservative as they age" idea is a myth. It's possible that Democrats lose a little ground among Millennials as they age simply because they have such huge amounts of support from them, but voters don't just morph into Republicans / conservatives with age. Some people seem to have this idea that just because older voters right now lean Republican to varying degrees, that that is somehow the natural progression of things, but many of those voters always leaned Republican. Reagan did as well among young voters as Obama in 2012, and many people who came of age during that time period still lean Republican, just like people who grew up during Clinton/Bush2 (and so far, Obama, for the most part) lean overwhelmingly Democratic.

I have always found this to be a fascinating read:
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/

Particularly pages 1 & 2, if you have the time.

[Blue3]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.

[Boston Bread]

It is a question of race and ethnicity.

Among non-Hispanic whites, millennials actually break evenly among conservative and liberals (Romney beat Obama with young whites by 7%).  The problem, as usual, is that nearly half of all millennials are non-whites (whereas 80% of Baby Boomers are white), and non-whites have been staunch liberals since we've began recording these statistics and polls.

Therefore, if millennials are to be conservative, then something must happen to change the political views of non-whites.

I don't know about that since most Millenials are slightly left of center per Pew Research.  Just look at the group "Next Generation Left" that Pew had in their "Political Typlogy Series" if you will a couple years ago.

 

Whatever the young "Next Generation Left" is, they definitely didn't show up in this year's primaries. Sanders got 80% of the under 30 vote, and that remaining 20% are mostly non-whites who are if anything the exact opposite of "Next Generation Left" - more economically left than socially. Young white Clinton supporters will definitely fit the profile, but that's what, 10% of the youth vote?

[Mr. Morden]

"Will they become more conservative?" and "Will they become more Republican?" are different questions.  If the Republican Party is overly represented by olds, then the Republican Party of the future could look pretty different, once that generation dies off.  So you could have people who don't really change in ideology, but become friendlier to the GOP once it's governed by a different generation of people.

[Figueira]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.

Being anti-slavery isn't "progressive," but it isn't "conservative" either. It's just the standard opinion that everyone has unless they're seriously messed up and racist. People who opposed gay marriage didn't suddenly become "progressive" after Obergefell. And no, abortion is just like other issues in this respect.

Aside from that, you're somewhat right, although I'd point out that it really only applies to social issues, and that it's not quite as simple as you're making it sound (there are 90-year-olds who are progressive on LGBT issues, for example).

And New Canadaland, you're absolutely right that "Next Generation Left" is a stupid term that was probably invented as a form of wish fulfillment by someone who holds that ideology. Whoever came up with that should be fired from their job.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

[Figueira]

I hope Heisenberg wakes up and realizes that socialism is always the answer.

[hopper]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

Yeah I think they will move more right fiscally than they are now since More Millenials will be in married life in the future.

[RINO Tom]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.

This line of thinking is so weird, and I fundamentally reject it.

[Bismarck]

"Conservative" in the American sense doesn't mean status quo. It generally means supporting less government in the economic sphere and support for traditional social norms. Reagan wanted a change from the status quo and he wasn't a progressive.

[Blue3]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.

This line of thinking is so weird, and I fundamentally reject it.

Why?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Todays liberals are tomorrows conservatives, so yes.

[Virginiá]

Todays liberals are tomorrows conservatives, so yes.

No. Not unless how we define 'conservative' completely changes.

[ElectionsGuy]

People become more conservative with age, using conservative as a non-US politics term. People become less adaptable to change and some even want the past back. This has some affect on politics long term, and voting should become slightly more Republican as result, but millennials will never be a generation that comes even close to the current views of the Republican Party. To think the generation that supported Bernie Sanders so much will supporting the Ted Cruz's of the world 50 years later is just hard to imagine. This is a huge problem for the Republican Party. I still expect the almost perfect linear pattern of age correlating positively with Republican voting to continue.

[Devils30]

Sometime in the 2030s-2040s, Dems will have 280 seats in Congress during a wave year as a result of current voting trends.

[Virginiá]

I still expect the almost perfect linear pattern of age correlating positively with Republican voting to continue.

What do you mean? That as people get older, they will vote Republican? Where are these new voters going to come from though? If that's what you mean, then you're basically saying Millennials/younger genx'ers are going to start voting Republican. The major reason why the GOP base is older right now is because they've failed to win over much of the last 1.5 generations of voters, leaving them with an aging base that, lucky for them, votes more consistently than a younger Democratic base.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Heisenberg wakes up and realizes that socialism is always the answer.

I will never fall to the dark side!

[hopper]

Sometime in the 2030s-2040s, Dems will have 280 seats in Congress during a wave year as a result of current voting trends.

You don't know that yet. We have a Dem President in the White House and only 28% of Americans think the country is on the "Right Track". If the "Wrong Track" numbers keep going like that with Dem Presidents in the White House there will be an opening for a possible(the right kind of)Republican President. However if Republicans keep on selecting the wrong Presidential Nominees the Dems will retain the White House unless there is a real bad recessionl ike 1980 or 2008.