KS-SUSA: Trump +5

[NOVA Green]

So it appears that Trump is continuing to be destroyed among college educated upper-middle income White voters....

This type of result only makes sense if there is a complete collapse in Johnson County, Kansas.

Now we *need* all poll of Texas to see if trends in the Atlanta suburbs and plain areas of Kansas are mirrored in the suburbs/exurbs of Houston, DFW, SA & Austin, as well as NorthTex.

[NOVA Green]

Also, bolded an interesting section regarding the breakdown of rural female voters and the gender gap.

Trump leads by 14 points among men. Clinton leads by 4 points among women. An 18-point Gender Gap. The Gender Gap is not larger because, in a rural state such as Kansas, Trump carries rural women by 7 points. Trump carries suburban men by 12 points. Clinton carries suburban women by 6 points. Clinton carries independent women by 20 points. Trump carries independent men by 9 points.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/763141859657015314 Romney had a high % of his vote from the white educated in Kansas.

That's an interesting map and I didn't realize that such a high proportion of Kansas Republicans (and Romney voters) in '12 had a college degree.

Interestingly, some of the most surprising results or apparent swings this cycle are coming from states with the highest proportion of college educated whites that voted Romney. I'm assuming part of the reason is that in many stronger Dem states, college educated Whites stopped voting Republican a decade or so back?

It would be interesting to do a map based on exit polls of college educated whites in the 2012 GE to see what other surprises (room to Dem inroads) might come from as well this election.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/763141859657015314 Romney had a high % of his vote from the white educated in Kansas.

This map makes me want to see a Texas poll.

YES!!!!

PPP will probably poll TX this week.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/763141859657015314 Romney had a high % of his vote from the white educated in Kansas.

That's an interesting map and I didn't realize that such a high proportion of Kansas Republicans (and Romney voters) in '12 had a college degree.

Interestingly, some of the most surprising results or apparent swings this cycle are coming from states with the highest proportion of college educated whites that voted Romney. I'm assuming part of the reason is that in many stronger Dem states, college educated Whites stopped voting Republican a decade or so back?

It would be interesting to do a map based on exit polls of college educated whites in the 2012 GE to see what other surprises (room to Dem inroads) might come from as well this election.

Northeastern college educated whites don't seem to be repulsed by Trump, interestingly enough. Polls of NY, CT, and MA are closer than you'd expect.

We haven't seen any legit post-convention polls of these three states, have we?

From pre-convention polls we have a few that show Hillary at <50% but still with a decent margin, most likely because of a number of "Bernie or bust" holdouts prior to consolidation of Democratic support behind Hillary.

Not about the voting patterns of college educated Whites in the North-East (Assuming you mean NY and New England?), and it is true that this is one region where Trump was not killed in the Republican Primaries compared to many other Metro Areas (DC, Atlanta, etc...), but something tells me he's not looking very good right now in the suburbs of Boston, Fairfield CT, Westchester NY, and Bergen NJ.

State polls are always lagging indicators of national polls, so obviously we'll need new data points to assess, but unfortunately we're less likely to see legit polls of these states without a competitive election for Governor, US Senator or NYC Mayor on the table so it might be awhile.

[NOVA Green]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

I believe you are correct about the low ceiling for Hillary, and don't believe that Kansas is truly in play.... *yet*.

Based upon this poll it does appear that Trump has much more room to expand his numbers than Hillary, however it does appear that there is a collapse in Republican support for Trump based upon core Republican voters to the point that we are even discussing this.

Key items---- Suburban Republican voters/leaners, Female Republican voters leaners, evangelical voters sitting on the fence.

The only reason we are talking about Kansas is because Trump has a major issue rallying the core Republican base over the past few decades into his column, and *these same patterns have been replicated in many other states over the past few weeks* so this is just another (And unexpected) data point to add to the current body of knowledge.

Like I said earlier, if this poll and the two recent polls of Georgia are legit, then we really need to see what is happening in Texas, where there are large populations of educated white voters in places like Montgomery, Fort Bend, Collin, Denton. Williamson, etc....

At this point, I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Harris County 55-45% in a two candidate vote breakdown, with much greater swing against Trump in more heavily wealthier and educated Anglo areas like Montgomery County (The Woodlands) than in Harris County.

[NOVA Green]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

At this point, I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Harris County 55-45% in a two candidate vote breakdown, with much greater swing against Trump in more heavily wealthier and educated Anglo areas like Montgomery County (The Woodlands) than in Harris County.

As someone with conservative anti-Trump/Clinton/Cruz relatives in Montgomery County voting for Trump over "her damn e-mails", I would love for this to be true

Anecdotal, but I lived in NW Harris County until very recently and Trump's message did not resonate particularly well among the vast majority of my co-workers in a large corporate office environment.

I do believe that there is a good chance that if the election were to be held today Fort Bend would likely flip, because of educated upper-middle class Anglos, Asian-American voters (Heavily Vietnamese-American) and collapse of Middle-Class Latino support for the current Republican nominee.

I do not predict that Montgomery County will flip, however I would not be surprised to see Trump at only 65% of the two candidate vote.

The problem with Metro-Houston is that there are so many jobs tied to the Energy Sector, to the point that many Anglos will not vote Democratic, but I suspect that among higher-income and educational backgrounds there will be some shifts.

This scenario could well change depending upon Middle-Class and Upper-Middle-class Texas Latinos dramatically abandoning the Republican Party and voting more like California Middle-Class Latinos as a result of the toxic nature and racist comments of their standard bearer.

That being said, Houston Anglos will swing less to Hillary than DFW Anglos, but I think there will be a greater overall swing towards Hillary in Metro Houston than Metro DFW.