KS-SUSA: Trump +5
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  KS-SUSA: Trump +5
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Author Topic: KS-SUSA: Trump +5  (Read 3548 times)
Holmes
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« on: August 09, 2016, 05:17:28 PM »

Trump 44 (-3)
Clinton 39 (+3)
Johnson 8 (-)
Undecided 9 (-)

Numbers compared to their July poll.

http://ksn.com/2016/08/09/ksn-news-poll-shows-donald-trump-losing-ground-in-kansas/
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 05:18:44 PM »

oh my
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 05:20:07 PM »

CALLED IT!!!

watch for kansas ladies and germs
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2016, 05:20:19 PM »

Gold standard Zogby confirmed!
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LLR
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 05:38:40 PM »

Give me some Dakotas polls fast!
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 05:43:38 PM »

When we did Kansas projects on the main board I mentioned the slim possibility of a surprise due to moderate R's possibly rebelling against Trump. Well there it is. Still Likely R but watch this

It also pretty much confirms that Clinton is ahead for the Omaha EV
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2016, 05:43:45 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2016, 05:45:37 PM by NOVA Green »

So it appears that Trump is continuing to be destroyed among college educated upper-middle income White voters....

This type of result only makes sense if there is a complete collapse in Johnson County, Kansas.

Now we *need* all poll of Texas to see if trends in the Atlanta suburbs and plain areas of Kansas are mirrored in the suburbs/exurbs of Houston, DFW, SA & Austin, as well as NorthTex.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2016, 05:45:42 PM »

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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2016, 05:46:16 PM »

So it appears that Trump is continuing to be destroyed among college educated upper-middle income White voters....

This type of result only makes sense if there is a complete collapse in Johnson County, Kansas.

Now we *need* all poll of Texas to see if trends in the Atlanta suburbs and plains areas are mirrored in the suburbs/exurbs of Houston, DFW, SA & Austin.

We also need polls of Nebraska and the Dakotas because a Trump +5 in KANSAS indicates serious weakness in the Dakotas and a Clinton lead in at least one Nebraska district
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 05:46:59 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/763141859657015314 Romney had a high % of his vote from the white educated in Kansas.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 05:53:15 PM »

Also, bolded an interesting section regarding the breakdown of rural female voters and the gender gap.

Trump leads by 14 points among men. Clinton leads by 4 points among women. An 18-point Gender Gap. The Gender Gap is not larger because, in a rural state such as Kansas, Trump carries rural women by 7 points. Trump carries suburban men by 12 points. Clinton carries suburban women by 6 points. Clinton carries independent women by 20 points. Trump carries independent men by 9 points.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 05:56:54 PM »

Wow, this will still go for Trump, but moderate R's did fare well in the primaries there. I wonder if the backlash against the state republican party is having any effect on the presidential race here?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2016, 05:58:34 PM »

Wow, this will still go for Trump, but moderate R's did fare well in the primaries there. I wonder if the backlash against the state republican party is having any effect on the presidential race here?
Not at all...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2016, 05:59:49 PM »


That's an interesting map and I didn't realize that such a high proportion of Kansas Republicans (and Romney voters) in '12 had a college degree.

Interestingly, some of the most surprising results or apparent swings this cycle are coming from states with the highest proportion of college educated whites that voted Romney. I'm assuming part of the reason is that in many stronger Dem states, college educated Whites stopped voting Republican a decade or so back?

It would be interesting to do a map based on exit polls of college educated whites in the 2012 GE to see what other surprises (room to Dem inroads) might come from as well this election.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 06:01:01 PM »


This map makes me want to see a Texas poll.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 06:02:12 PM »

Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
In the @FiveThirtyEight polls-only model, Clinton has a better chance of winning Kansas than Trump has of winning the presidency
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 06:03:45 PM »


That's an interesting map and I didn't realize that such a high proportion of Kansas Republicans (and Romney voters) in '12 had a college degree.

Interestingly, some of the most surprising results or apparent swings this cycle are coming from states with the highest proportion of college educated whites that voted Romney. I'm assuming part of the reason is that in many stronger Dem states, college educated Whites stopped voting Republican a decade or so back?

It would be interesting to do a map based on exit polls of college educated whites in the 2012 GE to see what other surprises (room to Dem inroads) might come from as well this election.
Northeastern college educated whites don't seem to be repulsed by Trump, interestingly enough. Polls of NY, CT, and MA are closer than you'd expect.
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windjammer
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 06:05:21 PM »

Clinton most certainly will carry KS-03
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 06:08:23 PM »

So according to SurveyUSA, Trump is only doing 1 point better in Kansas than in North Carolina. lol
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 06:08:56 PM »


This map makes me want to see a Texas poll.

YES!!!!

PPP will probably poll TX this week.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 06:12:46 PM »

LOL, this makes me want to see a South Dakota poll.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2016, 06:15:12 PM »


Maybe, if she can do well enough in Johnson county. I'm not sure if she'll carry it, but you never know. I think Shawnee county will flip, anyway.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2016, 06:28:40 PM »

WOW!! Looks like it's happening, folks. I will now accept my circa 2007 accolades.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2016, 06:47:52 PM »


That's an interesting map and I didn't realize that such a high proportion of Kansas Republicans (and Romney voters) in '12 had a college degree.

Interestingly, some of the most surprising results or apparent swings this cycle are coming from states with the highest proportion of college educated whites that voted Romney. I'm assuming part of the reason is that in many stronger Dem states, college educated Whites stopped voting Republican a decade or so back?

It would be interesting to do a map based on exit polls of college educated whites in the 2012 GE to see what other surprises (room to Dem inroads) might come from as well this election.
Northeastern college educated whites don't seem to be repulsed by Trump, interestingly enough. Polls of NY, CT, and MA are closer than you'd expect.

We haven't seen any legit post-convention polls of these three states, have we?

From pre-convention polls we have a few that show Hillary at <50% but still with a decent margin, most likely because of a number of "Bernie or bust" holdouts prior to consolidation of Democratic support behind Hillary.

Not about the voting patterns of college educated Whites in the North-East (Assuming you mean NY and New England?), and it is true that this is one region where Trump was not killed in the Republican Primaries compared to many other Metro Areas (DC, Atlanta, etc...), but something tells me he's not looking very good right now in the suburbs of Boston, Fairfield CT, Westchester NY, and Bergen NJ.

State polls are always lagging indicators of national polls, so obviously we'll need new data points to assess, but unfortunately we're less likely to see legit polls of these states without a competitive election for Governor, US Senator or NYC Mayor on the table so it might be awhile. Sad



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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2016, 06:55:04 PM »

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.
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