ME-2: Who wins, Poliquin or Cain?

[Stańczyk]

This race has been rated toss-up by many. The 2nd district votes narrowly to the left of the nation, but the GOP is becoming more competitive here. Presidential polling indicates a close race, but 2016 is a presidential year rather than the Republican wave of 2014. Will ex-businessman and former state treasurer Poliquin or former House minority leader Cain win?

[windjammer]

Cain. Clinton is going to win here by 10 points, I dont see how Poliquin could survive to that.

[Vosem]

Cain is a terrible fit for this district and Maine is one of the most ballot-splitting states in the nation (see 2008, Pres and Sen; or 2000 and 1996 for older examples); it'll almost certainly be a single-digit affair, but it's pretty hard for me to see Poliquin losing. I'd call this one Leans R.

[SWE]

Poliquin. Really weird that Democrats aren't contesting this race.

[Suburbia]

Poliquin will win, most likely, but by 5-10 points.

Poliquin 52
Cain 45

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Poliquin will get dragged down by Trump.

[Maxwell]

Depends on Clinton's margin in Polquin's district - if she wins by more than 10 or 12, Poliquin probably loses. If she wins by less than that, I could see him hanging on.

[JMT]

I think Poliquin will likely win, but if Clinton has a good night and wins by a large margin then Cain will probably win too

[Kingpoleon]

Depends on Clinton's margin - if she wins by more than 10 or 12, Poliquin probably loses. If she wins by less than that, I could see him hanging on.

I agree, but I doubt Clinton wins by more than eight or nine. Tilt R, but closer to Lean R than Tossup.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Cain is a terrible fit for this district and Maine is one of the most ballot-splitting states in the nation (see 2008, Pres and Sen; or 2000 and 1996 for older examples); it'll almost certainly be a single-digit affair, but it's pretty hard for me to see Poliquin losing. I'd call this one Leans R.

One of the most? It certainly seems to me that it's the biggest ticket-splitting state by a wide margin.

[RINO Tom]

Cain is a terrible fit for this district and Maine is one of the most ballot-splitting states in the nation (see 2008, Pres and Sen; or 2000 and 1996 for older examples); it'll almost certainly be a single-digit affair, but it's pretty hard for me to see Poliquin losing. I'd call this one Leans R.

One of the most? It certainly seems to me that it's the biggest ticket-splitting state by a wide margin.

I can't think of one that has more, especially lately when states like WV and AR really stopped.

[Xing]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - Poliquin (except for extremely strong Democratic wave). He is a conservative, but not "LePage style" conservative, and Cain is way too radical for this swingish district. Baldacci-type Democrat could do subdstantially better..

[Free Bird]

Poliquin. Cain is an awful fit for this district.

[Figueira]

I'll predict a narrow Cain victory, but it could go either way.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

what about good old Susie Collins? Maine is a classic vote splitting state, maybe the last one left.

[IceSpear]

I'll say Poliquin narrowly, but either one could win. Atlas has some weird fascination with overestimating Poliquin and thinking Cain is unelectable. Reminds me of the PA Senate race actually.

[Pandaguineapig]

Polquin is a representation of why I still have a blue avatar and Cain is the social issues obsessed intellectual lightweight that I despise, so I really hope polquin pulls it out

[Figueira]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

what about good old Susie Collins? Maine is a classic vote splitting state, maybe the last one left.

I think xingkerui was saying that while Maine will split its tickets for Collins types, it won't split its tickets for just any old Republican. It was confusingly worded.

[Xing]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

what about good old Susie Collins? Maine is a classic vote splitting state, maybe the last one left.

I think xingkerui was saying that while Maine will split its tickets for Collins types, it won't split its tickets for just any old Republican. It was confusingly worded.

Yes, that's what I meant. Sorry, I should have clarified that there are some Republicans Mainers wouldn't split their tickets for. I'm not sure whether or not Poliquin is one of those Republicans.

[Free Bird]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

what about good old Susie Collins? Maine is a classic vote splitting state, maybe the last one left.

I think xingkerui was saying that while Maine will split its tickets for Collins types, it won't split its tickets for just any old Republican. It was confusingly worded.

But that's the thing. Poliquin has proven himself to be a Snollins Republican

[Figueira]

I'm not sure Maine will split its tickets for any Republican. Poliquin will probably overperform Trump, but I'd rate this race a toss-up.

what about good old Susie Collins? Maine is a classic vote splitting state, maybe the last one left.

I think xingkerui was saying that while Maine will split its tickets for Collins types, it won't split its tickets for just any old Republican. It was confusingly worded.

But that's the thing. Poliquin has proven himself to be a Snollins Republican

It's a question of whether Maine voters interpret him that way.

[JMT]

I'll say Poliquin narrowly, but either one could win. Atlas has some weird fascination with overestimating Poliquin and thinking Cain is unelectable. Reminds me of the PA Senate race actually.

I totally agree with this. I also think Poliquin will win narrowly, but Cain could certainly win and I would not be surprised in the slightest. I also agree with you about PA senate, most people on this forum think Toomey is unbeatable and McGinty is a terrible candidate. Recent polls have shown otherwise, I actually expect McGinty to narrowly win her race

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Policuck is no Susan Collins.