Hong Kong legislative election September 4 2016

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 7:30PM is 43.60% which is higher than the 2012 turnout rate at 7:30PM at 39.96%  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.  Looks like so far we are on track for a turnout of around 58%.  This will be record turnout.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 8:30PM is 47.83% which is higher than the 2012 turnout rate at 8:30PM at 43.85%  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.  Looks like so far we are on track for a turnout of around 58%.   All things equal this should Democratic Bloc

[jaichind]

Chart on gap between 2012 and 2016 turnout by time.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 9:30PM is 52.57% which is higher than the 2012 turnout rate at 8:30PM at 48.19%  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.  Looks like so far we are on track for a turnout of around 58%.   



Voting has ended but counting will take a while.

[jaichind]

It seems there were still long lines even at 10:30PM.  It was around 11:40PM or so until all the lines were cleared.

[jaichind]

So far with around 70% of the vote counted it is clear that the higher turnout has helped the  Democratic Bloc.  Out of the 35 district seats it is

Establishment  Bloc  15
  Pro-Beijing               3             
  Center-Right          12

Democratic Bloc       17
   Moderates             12
   Radicals                  5

Localism Bloc             3

When most polls has the Establishment Bloc winning 17 seats at least.  It seems all the Establishment Bloc Moderates all underperformed as the  Democratic Bloc Moderates votes when back home.  The Establishment Bloc seems to have underperformed polls by around 3%  which makes it certain that in the All HK Council District it will be  Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc split of 2/3 instead of 3/2.  This puts the Establishment Bloc  at 17 out of 40 seats which is a drop of 2 seats from 2012 while the Democratic Bloc would be at 20 which a drop of 1 seat from 2012.

[jaichind]

My prelim vote share calculation based on incomplete count has


Establishment  Bloc  44.18%
  Pro-Beijing               8.91%             
  Center-Right          31.17%
  Moderates               4.11%

Democratic Bloc       43.88%
   Centrists                 0.86%
   Moderates             30.57%
   Radicals                12.45%

Localism Bloc           11.94%

Looks like there was some tactical voting by Localism Bloc voters for Democratic Bloc radicals relative to the polls.  That made all the difference in the world.

[jaichind]

Another batch of results came in and we are around 90% counted.  Establishment Bloc Moderate captured, for now, a seat from a Democratic Bloc Radical

For now the results are

                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.30%       16
  Pro-Beijing               8.91%         3 
  Center-Right          31.09%       12
  Moderates               4.21%          1

Democratic Bloc       43.88%       16
   Centrists                 0.89%        0
   Moderates             30.48%      12
   Radicals                12.50%        4

Localism Bloc           11.83%        3

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

When the functional constituencies elections results will be published?

[jaichind]

When the functional constituencies elections results will be published?

Much later, most likely after another 10 hours just like the All HK 5 Member District which itself counts as a Functional Constituency. 

[jaichind]

Just for reference again the 2012 results were


                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.73%       17
  Pro-Beijing               7.22%         3 
  Center-Right          34.14%       14
  Moderates               1.36%          0

Democratic Bloc       57.44%       18
   Moderates             41.43%      14
   Radicals                15.83%        4

 

[jaichind]

If these results hold then it seems that 梁國雄 (Leung Kwok-hung) AKA Long Hair Leung of LSD (League of Social Democrats) would have lost re-election by a very tiny margin.  To some extent one can say that Leung  really was the founder of the Radicals faction of the Democratic Bloc with his uncompromising position toward the PRC regime.  He is a long time Trotskyite and social justice activist as well as a dedicated opponent of the PRC since the 1970s.  He was actually an inspiration for me back in the late 1980s.  His writings on why he opposed the PRC in the 1980s was one of the many reasons why I became pro-PRC on the logic that anything he is against I will become very include to be for.  Anyway, it will be sad to see him go if he is really defeated as he occupies a iconic position in the radical anti-PRC position in HK politics.

[jaichind]

Opps.  I messed up my calculation.  Here is the current state of play with around 90% of the vote counted.

For now the results are

                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.40%       17
  Pro-Beijing               8.37%         3 
  Center-Right          32.11%       13
  Moderates               3.91%          1

Democratic Bloc       40.79%       14
   Centrists                 0.83%        0
   Moderates             28.34%      11
   Radicals                11.36%        3

Localism Bloc           14.81%        4

[jaichind]

Looks like estimated turnout is 58% just like I projected

[jaichind]

Hong Kong Stock Exchange are up 1.3% at the open on election results.  Establishment  Bloc did a bit worse than expected but weathered the Localism Bloc storm. 

[jaichind]

With around 7.7% of the vote counted in the 5 seat all HK district it is

Democratic Bloc Moderate            26.60%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  16.22%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           14.82%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  14.35%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           12.77%
Establishment Bloc Pro-Beijing    11.98%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             1.60%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             0.97%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             0.72%

The 3 Democratic Bloc Moderate that are running last place pretty much dropped out of race the night before the election.  It seems that it has worked in the sense that they are getting very little votes and giving the Democratic Bloc a solid chance at winning 3 out of 5 seats.

[jaichind]

With almost all the votes in for now 梁國雄 (Leung Kwok-hung)  has recaptured the lead in his district but there are still some votes outstanding so it is not clear yet.

For now the results are

                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.21%       16
  Pro-Beijing               8.04%         3 
  Center-Right          32.21%       13
  Moderates               3.96%          0

Democratic Bloc       40.92%       15
   Centrists                 0.84%        0
   Moderates             28.46%      11
   Radicals                11.62%        4

Localism Bloc           14.87%        4

[jaichind]

With around 13% of the vote counted in the 5 seat all HK district it is

Democratic Bloc Moderate            25.94%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  16.32%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           15.18%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  14.01%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           13.56%
Establishment Bloc Pro-Beijing    11.59%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             1.55%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             1.16%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             0.68%

[jaichind]

Final results of district vote are


                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.10%       16
  Pro-Beijing               8.17%         3  
  Center-Right          32.02%       13
  Moderates               3.90%          0

Democratic Bloc       41.05%       15
   Centrists                 0.84%        0
   Moderates             28.58%      11
   Radicals                11.63%        4

Localism Bloc           14.85%        4



Final result of  5 seat all HK district are

Democratic Bloc Moderate            25.74%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  15.93%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           15.89%
Establishment Bloc Center Right  13.84%
Democratic Bloc Moderate           12.77%
Establishment Bloc Pro-Beijing    12.21%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             1.48%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             1.24%
Democratic Bloc Moderate             0.90%

Which makes it

                                Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  41.98%        2
 Pro-Beijing              12.21%        0
 Center-Right           29.77%        2

Democratic Bloc       58.02%        3
 Moderate                58.02%        3
 
So total seats are

Establishment  Bloc            18   (-1)
  Pro-Beijing                         3   (-1)
  Center-Right                    15   (--)
  Moderates                         0    (--)

Democratic Bloc                 18   (-3)
   Centrists                          0   (--)
   Moderates                      14   (-3)
   Radicals                           4   (--)

Localism Bloc                      4  (+4)

This sort of result was what was expected when the election campaign started.  Then polls came out with the Establishment Bloc doing much better than expected.  This scared the Democratic Bloc  base into coming out pushing turnout to record levels and taking part in tactical voting which merely canceled out the pro Establishment Bloc surge which took place at the start of the election campaign.  The net result was a status quo election with the Establishment Bloc doing better in the district seats than 2012 in terms of vote share and doing worse in the all HK district than 2012.

[Gustaf]

So in Hong Kong corporations get to directly elect politicians?

[jaichind]

For the 30 Functional constituencies it seems the 2012 Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc of 24/6 was maintained.  So out of 70 seats total breakdown is Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc/Localism Bloc is 42/24/4.

[jaichind]

Turnout ended up being 58.28%

[jaichind]

So in Hong Kong corporations get to directly elect politicians?

Not really. What you are talking about are the 30 Functional Constituencies.  They are mostly professional constituencies where one can vote in them if one belongs to a particular profession.  Examples are "Agriculture and Fisheries" "Insurance" "Transport" "Health Services" "IT" "Catering"  etc etc.  There are also 3 seats for Labor Unions which are dominated by the pro-Beijing FTU as well as 2 seats each for Commercial and Industrial interests. 

Even as a back the Establishment Bloc I admit that these 30 Functional Constituencies main role is to ensure that the Establishment Bloc can never lose overall majority of the HK Legislature.

[jaichind]

For the 30 Functional constituencies it seems the 2012 Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc of 24/6 was maintained.  So out of 70 seats total breakdown is Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc/Localism Bloc is 42/24/4.

It turns out that in the Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency a pro-Establishment Bloc incumbent was defeated by a pro-Democratic Bloc independent.  So the partisan breakdown is Establishment Bloc/Democratic Bloc/Localism Bloc 41/25/4.