Marist: Clinton +14

[Wisconsin+17]

Wow. My prediction is not far off then.

With H+14, Trump keeps MS, LA, TX, MT and AK.

H+19 will match my prediction.

H+17 gets her all save MT, AK and LA.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Yep, I'm predicting a Hillaryslide.

[Wisconsin+17]

[Wisconsin+17]

H+14 will flip all the tossups back to Trump.

[Wisconsin+17]

My prediction is very close to being right - depends on how well she does among whites, college educated and Hispanics.

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump/Pence without MI and WI - he's capped at 278.

Trump must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia Georgia, and Arizona, and one of Iowa/Nevada. 

[Wisconsin+17]

Of those states, Trump is only up in Georgia. RCP has him up by 2.5 points.

Right now:

Missouri (Trump +6)

Georgia (Trump +2.5)

Arizona (Clinton +0.5)
North Carolina (Clinton +0.5)
Iowa (Clinton +0.5)
Ohio (Clinton +0.

Nevada (Clinton +2.5)
Florida (Clinton +2.7)

Virginia (Clinton 5.3)
Wisconsin (Clinton +5.6)
Michigan (Clinton +6.6)

Clinton has her first lead outside of the MOE. Trump has lost.

[Wisconsin+17]

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PA is gone. Virginia is his only path now. Michigan and Wisconsin are gone too.

He's down 5+ in Virginia and that's his last hope.

Hillary is at 273 outside of the MOE.

[Wisconsin+17]

Right now - Trump is ahead of Truman - Truman was down 13 by the 20th of August. Truman would narrow that to 6 by the last week of September.

HW Bush had recovered to 7 by August 15th.

Dubya was down by 10 by September 20th.

We'll know pretty quick where Trump stands. His campaign is in terrible historical shape. He has 2 weeks to shape up.