NBC/SurveyMonkey: Clinton +8 and at 50; Clinton +4 (4 way)

[dspNY]

Clinton 50
Trump 42

Clinton 42
Trump 38
Johnson 9
Stein 4

Change of 7 points in a week

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-support-spikes-following-democratic-convention-n621071

[Desroko]

#TrumpOver40

[HAnnA MArin County]

The polarizing neoliberal warmongering corporatist is over 50 percent?! Junk poll!!

[Lief 🗽]

WOW!! Now that's a bounce!

[/]

Nice poll, but the difference between the two-way and the four-way is weird.

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks like the Trumpster’s stupid comment about the Khan Family is the final nail in his coffin.

[Xing]

Trump's primary strategy isn't going to work in the general election.

[Ronnie]

Would not be surprised if her lead widens to double digits soon enough.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The 4-way race numbers are the right numbers to use. Clinton is up by 4, not by 8.

[Devout Centrist]

The 4-way race numbers are the right numbers to use. Clinton is up by 4, not by 8.

I wouldn't say that. Most of those respondents will end up supporting the two front runners.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The 4-way race numbers are the right numbers to use. Clinton is up by 4, not by 8.

I wouldn't say that. Most of those respondents will end up supporting the two front runners.

I wouldn't say most. The 4-way number is the correct one however.

[Ebsy]

For all the quibbling about 2-way, 3-way, or 4-way numbers, Clinton's lead in all three rcp polling averages are basically identical(4.4 2-way, 4.5 3-way, 4.4 4-way). I tend to think the 2 way numbers are going to be closer to what we see on election day in terms of what Clinton and Trump will actually get, but as for deciding who is in the lead, go by the polling averages and not any one poll.

[dspNY]

2 way numbers are the way to go until we know definitively that Johnson is gaining traction

[Absolution9]

Question:

Before the conventions I heard a lot of talk that polling immediately after the conventions is inaccurate because partisan response rates tend to spike after a party convention.  Do you guys think that could be in play here.  Is Clinton really up 4-8 points or more like 2-4?

[The Other Castro]

Question:

Before the conventions I heard a lot of talk that polling immediately after the conventions is inaccurate because partisan response rates tend to spike after a party convention.  Do you guys think that could be in play here.  Is Clinton really up 4-8 points or more like 2-4?

It's not that polling is inaccurate, but rather the post-convention bumps can be temporary and fade pretty quickly. However, sometimes bumps can be maintained or even grow depending on the circumstances.

[dspNY]

Regional breakdown

Northeast: Clinton 53, Trump 39
Midwest: Clinton 47, Trump 44
South: Trump 48, Clinton 46
West: Clinton 56, Trump 35

The South numbers indicate that VA, NC and FL are in Clinton's column and GA is in play
The West numbers indicate that NV and CO are in Clinton's column and AZ is in play
The Midwest numbers indicate that OH and IA are still tossups

[IceSpear]

The 4-way race numbers are the right numbers to use. Clinton is up by 4, not by 8.

I wouldn't say that. Most of those respondents will end up supporting the two front runners.

I wouldn't say most. The 4-way number is the correct one however.

Okay, even the 4 way number still makes your concern trolling posts last week look ridiculous.