PPP-National: Clinton +5

[Maxwell]

Undecideds approve of Obama by 55/33, but hate Trump and Hillary about equally (something insane like 2/84 and 4/83 or something respectively). These people may just sit out.

[Maxwell]

Clinton leads among Hispanics 67-18, African Americans 92-2, Others 48-37, while Trump leads with Whites by 56-40. That is impressive cross tabs and somewhat believable too.

Also a lot of that undecided courting will be among youths 18 to 29... who would support Obama vs. Trump 67-31, but only back Clinton 51-34, with a whopping 15% undecided. They also actually support #LockHerUp 40-39, even as voters overall oppose #LockingHerUP 36-51.

[Maxwell]

What's also interesting about their demographic numbers is that it almost EXACTLY matches the numbers from the 2012 Presidential election in terms of how much of each race.

[Maxwell]

Yes, Trump literally only was under-polled in New York and primaries after New York. Just about every other state Trump over-polled, sometimes significantly.

[Maxwell]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

If this existed, wouldn't we have demonstrable results from the primaries?

My theory:
In the early primaries, it were more or less just Fifth-Avenue-people, who voted for Trump, i.e. who really liked him and his comments. As field narrowed, more and more ordinary voters joined Trump train. That could be one of the reasons, why he was heavily underestimated in late primaries.

Also, idk why Brexit surprised so many people when the option led in agreggate polling in the week before the vote. Only on the final day did Brexit look less likely.

Probably because of the betting market. You could get 4-6 on BREXIT.

Which primary was he underestimated in? Indiana? Even so, a single primary is hardly indicative of a trend.

Yeah, but I trust polls in the US over the betting markets. We have not seen polls incorrect to the degree they have been in the UK.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/april-26-primaries-presidential-election-2016/#livepress-update-14131541

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And if there is shy Trump, there is not among Trump hacks, of course. Probably, among independents/R-leaners.

Yes, Trump literally only was under-polled in New York and primaries after New York. Just about every other state Trump over-polled, sometimes significantly.

Average Before New York   +0.2

I stand by my opinion, considering that number is incredibly marginal pre-New York.

Keep in mind that other candidates also had numbers to over-perform from - If you look at the averages from the Cruz campaign, for example, he would over-perform by large margins in just about every state until New York.