PPP-National: Clinton +5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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Yup - THIS is the main take out. When people start changing their views of you, they are going to be more receptive to listening to you. It should be noted that according to this poll, the remaining undecideds have a Democratic bent, so Clinton, at this stage, has room to grow.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Undecideds approve of Obama by 55/33, but hate Trump and Hillary about equally (something insane like 2/84 and 4/83 or something respectively). These people may just sit out.

Which is why Obama is going to be so crucial to getting the undecideds out.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton leads among Hispanics 67-18, African Americans 92-2, Others 48-37, while Trump leads with Whites by 56-40. That is impressive cross tabs and somewhat believable too.

Also a lot of that undecided courting will be among youths 18 to 29... who would support Obama vs. Trump 67-31, but only back Clinton 51-34, with a whopping 15% undecided. They also actually support #LockHerUp 40-39, even as voters overall oppose #LockingHerUP 36-51.

Social media bubbles are a hell of a drug. But to be fair, it's small sample so who knows.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Kind of. So right now Clinton's lead is probably little bit overestimated.

Note that says COULD. They're hypothesising an equal 3.5% bounce. But that's not what that graph is doing. It's saying bounces tend to wash out, if they're bounces.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was expecting Hillary to be ahead of Trump by 6-9 points after that wonderful convention. This is a little disappointing TBH.

We'll just have to see if there's more positive movement. PPP has been more muted for Clinton for the last few months.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

Outside of the Brexit thing, which wasn't party-based, those are multi-party states, the US is basically a binary option.