PPP-National: Clinton +5

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Kind of. So right now Clinton's lead is probably little bit overestimated.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Kind of. So right now Clinton's lead is probably little bit overestimated.

Note that says COULD. They're hypothesising an equal 3.5% bounce. But that's not what that graph is doing. It's saying bounces tend to wash out, if they're bounces.

That's why I wrote she is PROBABLY overestimated a bit, because bounces more often dies out than not. On the other hand, Trumps  most recent statements (Russia and Khan) might solidify Hillary's bounce. After 1-2 weeks we'll know.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

Outside of the Brexit thing, which wasn't party-based, those are multi-party states, the US is basically a binary option.

Yes, it is probably that way.

I should've said, that if there is [massive] shy Trump, I wouldn't be shocked.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

If this existed, wouldn't we have demonstrable results from the primaries?

My theory:
In the early primaries, it were more or less just Fifth-Avenue-people, who voted for Trump, i.e. who really liked him and his comments. As field narrowed, more and more ordinary voters joined Trump train. That could be one of the reasons, why he was heavily underestimated in late primaries.

Also, idk why Brexit surprised so many people when the option led in agreggate polling in the week before the vote. Only on the final day did Brexit look less likely.

Probably because of the betting market. You could get 4-6 on BREXIT.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

Outside of the Brexit thing, which wasn't party-based, those are multi-party states, the US is basically a binary option.

Yes, it is probably that way.

I should've said, that if there is [massive] shy Trump, I wouldn't be shocked.

Again, there was no evidence of that in the primaries.

There was some. Kind of.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/

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Though:

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But since we're talking about gut feelings...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, I completely agree with you. Just to clarify; my point was that it is little bit too early to compare whose dick convention bounce will be bigger.

And I also have my own gut feelings, based on how often 'Trumpish' parties/events have been underestimated in Europe. I'm pretty well informed about the performance of polls in following countries ('Trumpish' party/event):
Sweden (Sweden Democrats)
Danmark (Danish People's Party)
Austria (Freedom Party of Austria)
France (National Front)
UK (BREXIT)

They all were underestimated with 2-4 ppts in their last elections. And they all much less controversial than Trump. Shy Trump? Pretty damn sure!

If this existed, wouldn't we have demonstrable results from the primaries?

My theory:
In the early primaries, it were more or less just Fifth-Avenue-people, who voted for Trump, i.e. who really liked him and his comments. As field narrowed, more and more ordinary voters joined Trump train. That could be one of the reasons, why he was heavily underestimated in late primaries.

Also, idk why Brexit surprised so many people when the option led in agreggate polling in the week before the vote. Only on the final day did Brexit look less likely.

Probably because of the betting market. You could get 4-6 on BREXIT.

Which primary was he underestimated in? Indiana? Even so, a single primary is hardly indicative of a trend.

Yeah, but I trust polls in the US over the betting markets. We have not seen polls incorrect to the degree they have been in the UK.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/april-26-primaries-presidential-election-2016/#livepress-update-14131541

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And if there is shy Trump, there is not among Trump hacks, of course. Probably, among independents/R-leaners.

Yes, Trump literally only was under-polled in New York and primaries after New York. Just about every other state Trump over-polled, sometimes significantly.

Average Before New York   +0.2