Do you think Johnson will make the debate stage?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

With Governor Johnson's poll numbers growing and the last CNN poll showing him just 2% shy from the threshold, do you think Johnson will make the debate stage with Clinton and Trump?

IMO, I do think he will make it, 2% is not a lot to make up and I can see a way for him to get to 15%.

I think having Johnson and Weld at the debates gives voters a third choice that is significantly different from the Trump/Clinton campaigns and messages.

[IceSpear]

No. He needs 15% in an average of polls. He hasn't hit 15% in a single one, and in many he's at 5-7%.

[LLR]

It's 2016 - anything that can happen will happen

[The Other Castro]

Probably not, though a Jeb endorsement and some free media could get more polls to include his name and boost his numbers.

[angus]

Do you think Johnson will make the debate stage?

The people who run the show are capitalist pigs, just like you and me, and therefore they'll do whatever it takes to increase ratings, but they're also terrified of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, just like you and me.  They're smart enough to figure out a way to try to throw monkey wrenches in the major party campaigns.  Normally, that might be a radical idea, but this year it is only a natural and normal response.  I'd be surprised if every single media outlet lies down and accepts the "fact" that we must chose from among two narcissists who are manifestly unfit to command our economy, our military, and our culture.  My guess is that at least one independent or third-party candidate will be hyped, and at the moment Johnson has the best shot.

voted yes.

[WVdemocrat]

If Jeb, Romney and others endorse, then yes. Otherwise, prolly not

[Senator-elect Spark]

I hope so

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My gut says no. But Bush/Romney endorsements + free press like he's been getting this week = Barely getting the 15% average to make it. Maybe another Senator/Governor endorsement or 2

In this election, I'm not discounting anything

[Xing]

Highly doubtful.

[Classic Conservative]

I think it could, but even if he did make 15%, I'd bet they wouldn't invite him.

[SteveRogers]

What the CPD Rules actually state:

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http://www.debates.org/index.php?mact=News,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=58&cntnt01origid=15&cntnt01detailtemplate=newspage&cntnt01returnid=80

So not only does he need to get up to 15%, but he has to average 15% based on an average of whatever 5 pollsters CPD decides to go with. That's a pretty tall order. It'll take a lot more than a Jeb Bush bump to get him there.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think it could, but even if he did make 15%, I'd bet they wouldn't invite him.

While they can carefully choose which polls to use, if he's clearly averaging 15%, federal law says they have to include him.

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[Badger]

Nah.

[Higgs]

Lol no. It definitely will not happen.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I thought it was impossible, but now I think it's possible, but still a stretch.

He would have to reach 15% in an average of polls, which means he would have to continue to increase his support in an interval of time during which third-party and independent candidates have historically faded. However, I had my doubts he'd even reach double digits, so I guess I can't count it out.

[Mr. Morden]

He won't make the CPD debates, no.  But I still wouldn't rule out Trump ditching the CPD debates, and demanding different debates with different rules, in which case who the heck knows.

Would be hilarious if Trump shows up at the Free & Equal debate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_%26_Equal_Elections_Foundation#2016

Though, yeah, that's a pretty serious longshot.

[Likely Voter]

Certainly I think there is a decent chance of Trump going rogue, but for him to want Johnson to join it would have to be clear that if Johnson is hurting Clinton more. Right now it seems Johnson is taking a bit more from Clinton but not a lot and will that be the same after the DNC? Also if Johnson starts being taken more seriously it risks the NeverTrumpers turning to him as their Trump free life raft, and that will hurt Trump for sure.

[angus]

Right now it seems Johnson is taking a bit more from Clinton

hard statement to support.  Maybe he is, but I like the Trump-free liferaft idea more.

[Mr. Morden]

Certainly I think there is a decent chance of Trump going rogue, but for him to want Johnson to join it would have to be clear that if Johnson is hurting Clinton more. Right now it seems Johnson is taking a bit more from Clinton but not a lot and will that be the same after the DNC? Also if Johnson starts being taken more seriously it risks the NeverTrumpers turning to him as their Trump free life raft, and that will hurt Trump for sure.

I'm not sure how strategic Trump would be about it.  He's erratic, so even if the pundit consensus is that including Johnson isn't helpful to him, he still might do it.  He might simply think that he performs better in a multi-candidate free for all than he does in a one on one debate.

He also might simply start making wild demands that he doesn't think Clinton will agree to.  I don't know.

I mean, this remains a longshot.  I don't think it's that likely that Johnson will be in any debates with Clinton or Trump this year.  But Trump is sufficiently unconventional that I wouldn't rule it out.

[pho]

Thankfully, no.

[Likely Voter]

Certainly I think there is a decent chance of Trump going rogue, but for him to want Johnson to join it would have to be clear that if Johnson is hurting Clinton more. Right now it seems Johnson is taking a bit more from Clinton but not a lot and will that be the same after the DNC? Also if Johnson starts being taken more seriously it risks the NeverTrumpers turning to him as their Trump free life raft, and that will hurt Trump for sure.

I'm not sure how strategic Trump would be about it.  He's erratic, so even if the pundit consensus is that including Johnson isn't helpful to him, he still might do it.  He might simply think that he performs better in a multi-candidate free for all than he does in a one on one debate.

He also might simply start making wild demands that he doesn't think Clinton will agree to.  I don't know.

I mean, this remains a longshot.  I don't think it's that likely that Johnson will be in any debates with Clinton or Trump this year.  But Trump is sufficiently unconventional that I wouldn't rule it out.

I agree Trump is erratic and may not act rationally. However he does have some people he trusts like his family and maybe sometimes Manafort and if it was clear Johnson was a threat, they may be able to stop him.

One thing is for sure, if Romney and/or Bush endorse Johnson, Trump will never want to be in a debate with him. He would associate Johnson with his political enemies. In fact, I wold not be surprised if Johnson got to 15% following NeverTrump endorsements, Trump refuses to be in the CPD debates because he will claim the media (polls) and 'establishment' are colluding and rigging the system against him.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

If he doesn't, it'll be because they kept him out on technicalities.

[MIKESOWELL]

I doubt it.

[President Johnson]

Hopefully not. But I doubt it.

[SillyAmerican]

I hope so.

If he doesn't, it'll be because they kept him out on technicalities.

These. (And yes, the way I see it, the two major political parties have way too much control over who gets to attend the debates...).