IL: Kirk Slightly ahead in Internal despite large Clinton lead in same poll

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump

[Miles]

Decimals = junk poll!

[Ebsy]

[Heisenberg]

Kirk +1.5! His last internal had him down, IIRC, and he's strongly outperforming Clinton. But in the end, he'll lose.

[ElectionsGuy]

That may justify a 'Lean D' rating as the two races are 16 points apart (something that is more likely to shrink as time goes on, but I'll keep an open mind) but its unfortunate that its an internal.

[Xing]

This means Kirk is probably behind, though perhaps not completely out of the race.

[136or142]

The poll and the comparison with the Clinton/Trump poll mean nothing unless we know what, if any, questions were asked before those surveyed were asked about Kirk/Duckworth.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Interesting, and while I doubt both the accuracy and the precision of this poll, perhaps it will serve to bring national Republican money back to Illinois to try to make a race out of this. With the way the party is moving this year, establishment Rs would probably like to have someone like Kirk in the Senate caucus.

What gets me is that, despite her strong credentials, Duckworth just doesn't seem to be such a strong candidate. She ran well behind Obama in 2012 despite running against a garbage (and deeply unpopular) opponent. If she wins this year, she will do so despite running even further behind Hillary. She must just not have very good political skills.

[Mr. Illini]

Conservative pollster, but I am slightly concerned about ticket-splitters. Kirk isn't really seen in Illinois as being in the same party as Trump.

[Bojack Horseman]

[Blair]

I remember last summer in the Burnham campaign I worked on the head of the London campaign kept saying that our internals were looking good, and putting us on 35% of the vote.... we got 19%.

[RINO Tom]

I mean, Kirk is basically running as a Democrat. I've always said that he won't be easy to beat, even though I despise him.

The poll and the comparison with the Clinton/Trump poll mean nothing unless we know what, if any, questions were asked before those surveyed were asked about Kirk/Duckworth.

^^Also true.

How in the  is he running as a Democrat?!  Being a Republican is as much about lowering the tax burden, decreasing harmful regulation and rewarding economic success as having a Southern accent and talking about church, especially in IL.  This isn't Dixie, thank God.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I mean, Kirk is basically running as a Democrat. I've always said that he won't be easy to beat, even though I despise him.

The poll and the comparison with the Clinton/Trump poll mean nothing unless we know what, if any, questions were asked before those surveyed were asked about Kirk/Duckworth.

^^Also true.

How in the  is he running as a Democrat?!  Being a Republican is about lowering the tax burden, decreasing harmful regulation and rewarding economic success, not having a Southern accent and talking about church.

Kirk is liberal on social issues and supports confirming Justice Garland. That's enough to be a Dem according to TNVOL's definition.

[RINO Tom]

I mean, Kirk is basically running as a Democrat. I've always said that he won't be easy to beat, even though I despise him.

The poll and the comparison with the Clinton/Trump poll mean nothing unless we know what, if any, questions were asked before those surveyed were asked about Kirk/Duckworth.

^^Also true.

How in the  is he running as a Democrat?!  Being a Republican is about lowering the tax burden, decreasing harmful regulation and rewarding economic success, not having a Southern accent and talking about church.

Kirk is liberal on social issues and supports confirming Justice Garland. That's enough to be a Dem according to TNVOL's definition.

I would ask TN Vol why he doesn't just identify as a Republican already, but I don't want his trash political views in my party.

[SATW]

If Mark Kirk isn't a real Republican than I don't want to be one either. Kirk is a loyal Republican who holds mainstream party views on economic and foreign policy issues.

I differ with Kirk on some social issues, but this is Illinois...not Alabama.

[RINO Tom]

Watch his ads and you'll know what I mean - he's really been running away from Trump, McConnell and Republican positions on social issues. This might turn out to be a smart strategy, which worked for red state Democrats like Manchin and Heitkamp, but he needs to find a way to not lose any support in more conservative downstate IL - IIRC, there's several Third Party candidates running in this race.

Tom, I bet that a majority of Republicans would rather have Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey in the Senate than Mark Kirk, whether you like that or not.

LOL, chumps vote on social issues, I'll just say it.  Also, a "majority of Republicans" don't have that choice.  That's not the type of Republican our state nominates, thankfully (though I like Toomey).

[RINO Tom]

LOL, chumps vote on social issues, I'll just say it. 

No elitism here at all, nope.

Just realism.

[Heisenberg]

If Mark Kirk isn't a real Republican than I don't want to be one either. Kirk is a loyal Republican who holds mainstream party views on economic and foreign policy issues.

I differ with Kirk on some social issues, but this is Illinois...not Alabama.

This. If Kirk was a full-fledged social conservative, he wouldn't have won. I'm glad Illinois Republicans (unlike Colorado and Delaware Republicans) chose the most electable candidate.

[Bojack Horseman]

Do Democrats here seriously think Kirk will get Blanched (lose by 20+ points)? Even Trump will keep it closer in IL than Blanche did in AR.

Nah, he'll get Pryored and only lose by two touchdowns.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do Democrats here seriously think Kirk will get Blanched (lose by 20+ points)? Even Trump will keep it closer in IL than Blanche did in AR.

Nah, he'll get Pryored and only lose by two touchdowns.

Pryor lost by 17 points, not 14, but whatever.

[Classic Conservative]

This is personally how I see it, the GOP should run moderates in the North and battleground states and very conservatives in The GOP Heartland.

[IceSpear]

I'm actually pretty curious about TNVol's political views. From what I can tell (and based off his PM score), he's slightly left leaning, but mostly votes for Republicans because he prioritizes being pro-life and being against angry NH women? Correct me if I'm wrong here.

But, if that is the case, Republicans shouldn't be so cocky. They'd be on the ropes as a party without the single issue pro-life voters.

[RINO Tom]

I'm actually pretty curious about TNVol's political views. From what I can tell (and based off his PM score), he's slightly left leaning, but mostly votes for Republicans because he prioritizes being pro-life and being against angry NH women? Correct me if I'm wrong here.

But, if that is the case, Republicans shouldn't be so cocky. They'd be on the ropes as a party without the single issue pro-life voters.

I don't think there's ever been a cohesive description of his views besides hating Susan Collins and Mark Kirk, being pro-life, being A-okay with Trump's dog whistles and hating NH with a sick passion.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm actually pretty curious about TNVol's political views. From what I can tell (and based off his PM score), he's slightly left leaning, but mostly votes for Republicans because he prioritizes being pro-life and being against angry NH women? Correct me if I'm wrong here.

But, if that is the case, Republicans shouldn't be so cocky. They'd be on the ropes as a party without the single issue pro-life voters.

If the GOP gave up on life, millions of people like me would find a new political home- either the Constitution Party or a new party.

[RINO Tom]

I'm actually pretty curious about TNVol's political views. From what I can tell (and based off his PM score), he's slightly left leaning, but mostly votes for Republicans because he prioritizes being pro-life and being against angry NH women? Correct me if I'm wrong here.

But, if that is the case, Republicans shouldn't be so cocky. They'd be on the ropes as a party without the single issue pro-life voters.

If the GOP gave up on life, millions of people like me would find a new political home- either the Constitution Party or a new party.

The GOP won't give up being pro-life, and they shouldn't.  However, it's high time that religious conservatives stop acting like they're the only ones who matter in the party and recognize that the Republican Party is still the natural home for the business community and more affluent Americans; if this coalition is going to last, they need to accept that "fiscal conservatives" who don't much care for divisive social issues are an important part of it.