Who will win Elliott County, KY?

[RINO Tom]

Clinton, narrowly.

[RINO Tom]

I think Elliott County's Democratic leanings actually predate the discovery of coal in eastern Kentucky. But apparently they're not Dixiecrats either, since they voted for Obama twice (once by a landslide margin).

The fact that it was so close in 2012 all but confirms they ARE "Dixiecrats," to the extent that Dixiecrats still exist at all; there are only a couple hundred registered Republicans in the whole county.

[RINO Tom]

I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.

They obviously could, but there is no guarantee they will.  EVERYWHERE has a ceiling.  We thought Republicans reached it before Trump with rural Whites, and we were wrong.  That doesn't automatically mean that predictions of >60% Trump counties becoming 80% Trump counties are going to turn out to be true, either.

[RINO Tom]

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.