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March 07, 2021, 10:56:33 AM

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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Who will win Elliott County, KY?
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Author Topic: Who will win Elliott County, KY?  (Read 5786 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: July 16, 2016, 02:17:28 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_County,_Kentucky#Politics

It's voted for Democrats in landslides ever since its formation in 1869 but only gave 49% to Obama in 2012. Last rural county in the South never to vote for the GOP in a presidential election.

Year   Democratic   Republican
2012   49.4% 1,186   46.9% 1,126
2008   61.0% 1,535   35.9% 902
2004   69.8% 2,064   29.5% 871
2000   64.1% 1,527   34.7% 827
1996   64.4% 1,298   20.9% 421
1992   71.1% 1,796   17.6% 444
1988   76.2% 1,797   23.3% 550
1984   73.4% 1,683   26.2% 601
1980   74.4% 1,668   24.6% 551
1976   80.7% 1,987   18.5% 455
1972   65.3% 1,499   34.0% 782
1968   63.4% 1,387   23.6% 515
1964   86.2% 2,026   13.7% 323
1960   68.7% 1,734   31.3% 789
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2016, 02:20:01 PM »

Obama was a horrible fit for the county and still won. Clinton will take it back to the 60% range.
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2016, 02:20:29 PM »

Trump. By like 8, it's sharply trending R.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2016, 03:20:46 PM »

Trump. He's the perfect fit to extinguish the Democratic party there.
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Flake
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2016, 03:50:48 PM »

Trump has a lot of appeal in a place like Elliott County, I think he'll win it.

I could be wrong and Clinton absolutely demolishes him like most other Democrats before her.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2016, 04:19:22 PM »

If trump continues as he does, Clinton clinches.

Decent fit without a doubt, but a lack of GOTV on any level is still gonna be costly.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2016, 04:58:49 PM »

I don't think Clinton will do worse than Obama's 2012 performance in KY, even though she'll still lose it badly. I'll say Clinton ekes out a win in Elliott.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2016, 06:02:05 PM »

This county is very confusing, especially if oh look at the difference between 2000 and 2004.

I predict a Clinton win.
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Kapettobagga
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2016, 06:30:46 PM »

I don't think Trump is going to do any better than Romney here KY.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2016, 07:58:52 PM »

I'd be shocked if Clinton didn't win it.

New York billionaires like Trump are a poor fit for rural Kentucky.
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emotional hardcore
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2016, 08:02:30 PM »

Hillary Clinton is a white, you see.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2016, 08:06:40 PM »

Hillary Clinton by 5-10 points.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2016, 09:20:31 PM »


Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2016, 09:23:24 PM »


Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.

It was true logic, until Obama was re-elected. That was the final straw for these people, and they now see all Democrats as part of an anti-white hate group. So yes, you're correct those areas will likely swing R, with Elliott voting for Trump.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2016, 12:59:36 AM »


Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.

It was true logic, until Obama was re-elected. That was the final straw for these people, and they now see all Democrats as part of an anti-white hate group. So yes, you're correct those areas will likely swing R, with Elliott voting for Trump.
Anti-white hate group? Not quite. Hillary! didn't help matters in that one debate where she said that she wanted to put coal miners out of work. That comment will come back to bite her in parts of WV, KY, OH and Western PA.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2016, 09:18:24 AM »

Anti-white hate group? Not quite. Hillary! didn't help matters in that one debate where she said that she wanted to put coal miners out of work. That comment will come back to bite her in parts of WV, KY, OH and Western PA.

Then what about that interview where Donald Trump said coal miners were stupid? Why is that being covered up?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2016, 11:30:18 AM »

Trump. He's the perfect fit to extinguish the Democratic party there.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2016, 02:25:06 PM »

Clinton, narrowly.
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VPH
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2016, 10:36:21 PM »

Trump. It's a blue-collar white county in Kentucky. He's the capstone on the GOP's takeover of said demographic. Sad how Dems have ignored blue-collar whites.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2016, 10:42:16 PM »

Trump. It's a blue-collar white county in Kentucky. He's the capstone on the GOP's takeover of said demographic. Sad how Dems have ignored blue-collar whites.

Don't blame the Democrats that in many areas of the country blue collar whites prefer the party that stokes racial resentment. Democrats didn't ignore them, they just have their own priorities.
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Bernie’s Mittens
semocrat08
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2016, 03:25:41 AM »

Sanders won it in the primary, so I'm hypothesizing that Trump ekes out a 51-47ish victory here. Like virtually all of Appalachia, Elliott County is lone gone for the Democrats.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2016, 03:28:59 AM »

Trump, by about the 8-point margin that the poll above currently shows.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2016, 09:04:52 AM »

Sanders won it in the primary, so I'm hypothesizing that Trump ekes out a 51-47ish victory here. Like virtually all of Appalachia, Elliott County is lone gone for the Democrats.

Sanders voters are mostly turning to Clinton now.

And for what it's worth, Sanders didn't do nearly as well in eastern Kentucky as he did in West Virginia.
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emotional hardcore
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2016, 09:23:50 AM »

Also contrary to popular belief, Elliott is not, and never has been, a coal county (it sits just outside the coal belt.)
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2016, 09:25:39 AM »

I think Elliott County's Democratic leanings actually predate the discovery of coal in eastern Kentucky. But apparently they're not Dixiecrats either, since they voted for Obama twice (once by a landslide margin).
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