10/9
Trump 47% (+3)
Clinton 40% (-4)
As of last month I would have agreed with you. But over the past several weeks, this poll has not trended in a manner consistent with almost every other national poll (tracking or otherwise), so it's harder to justify that claim.
This is one of the problems I'm starting to have with this poll. But I won't stop doing this unless Clinton's up double digits and they still have Trump up or something like that.
They ask the same people over and over again. That's the major flaw. They asked who they voted for in 2012 and divided the samples so that 26% of Obama voters and 24% of Romney voters make up the survey. (which closely matches 52-47% vote share between Obama and Romney).
The problem about this is that some of those Obama voters were Romney voters. There is significant evidence that some people lie or cannot remember who they voted for because of "I voted for a winner" social desirability bias. So it's very likely that the samples consist of more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents than the actual Republican portion of the national voting population.
All statisticians and polling aggregators agree that reasonable and scientific polls are generated randomly every time instead of contacting the same people over and over. Even Rasmussen uses random samples (despite not using cell phones, which underestimates Democratic margin) and even they have Hillary up.
